Mapping the Global Future - 2020

[BobG]

This makes for some interesting reading.

http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf
The rise in economic power of China and India is pretty much a given.

One prediction is really striking. They predict the world's economy to grow by 80 percent over 2000 levels. At that rate, the worst that middle class Americans and Europeans would feel would be a kind of stagnancy in their standard of living.

There's also a lot that could happen to slow that down - world disease, global terrorism, or just the US and Europe developing protectionist policies (economic protectionism might be politically tempting if the world economy doesn't grow at expected rates and the Western countries actually suffer a decrease in standard of living, but it would be economic suicide over the long term).

 

[klusener]

2020 AD: India may outshine US



WASHINGTON: The rise of China and India as global players is heralding an Asian Century in place of a receding American Century, a US intelligence report said on Thursday.


In a far reaching projection, the CIA-commissioned report compared the rise of the two Asian giants to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the 20th century, and said the event will transform the world's geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.

"In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the 'American Century,' the 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own," the report titled 'Mapping the Global Future,' observed. "A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power for both countries."

The report is the third in a series of five-yearly forecasts of global trends published by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence analysts who report to the CIA director. The earlier reports were for 2010 and 2015. The forecasts for 2020 were based on consultations with more than 1,000 non-government experts at 30 conferences on five continents over the past year.

Expectedly, the 2005 report for the 2020 projection reflected the post 9/11 changes, but it also contained a degree of certitude not seen in the two previous studies, including a more upbeat assessment for India. "Barring an abrupt reversal of the process of globalization or any major upheavals in these countries, the rise of these new powers (China and India) is a virtual certainty," it predicted.

The report said while most forecasts indicate that by 2020 China's gross national product (GNP) will exceed that of individual Western economic powers except US India's GNP will have overtaken or be on the threshold of overtaking European economies.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/990832.cms

 

[stjimmy]

Wow those chinese and indians are doing something right getting tech jobs and growing so fast.
geez

 

[fourier jr]

well i know china is doing the opposite of what the IMF/World Bank tell countries to do to get their economies moving, if the word of joe stiglitz is anything to go by. i haven't read anything about what India is doing but i wouldn't be surprised if it's similar.

 

[BobG]

Countries that have a rapid an economic expansion as China and India usually have big economic falls that corrects the long term expansion to a more realistic level. It's similar to the stock market - big boom in the 90's, big fall as well - it's the size of the variations that change, not the overall growth rate.

China and India are set to make very good improvements in their economy because these are real changes instead of just fluctuations, but I have a hard time believing their economies can maintain growth rates that high (the experts in the article believe they can since the global landscape is changing, but they also acknowledge that the long term growth of those two countries is one of the uncertainties).