Likelihood of things happening on with regularity depending on initial probability

In summary: The binomial distribution is a common tool in probability and statistics, and it can be a little bit tricky to understand at first. In any case, I'm happy to help you out if you need it.In summary, this person is looking for help calculating the probability of a particular event occurring multiple times.
  • #1
ReamsOfVerse
1
0
Hello All,

Firstly, what a wonderful place for people to help one and other. I am glad that I have stumbled across : )

I have posted this query in advanced because to me there it is advanced but if it is basic to others then please excuse me.

I can easily work out the probability of something happening every time at general probability or odds but I fall down when working out the probability of it happening a lesser number of times.

If there is a 43.5% of something happening on a single occasion.

If it is run on 15 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 12,13 and 14 times.
If it is run on 20 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 17,18 and 19 times.

If there is a 38% of something happening on a single occasion.

If it is run on 15 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 12,13 and 14 times.
If it is run on 20 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 17,18 and 19 times.

Any help, particularly in how I go about calculating so that I know for future reference would be a massive help.
 
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  • #2
ReamsOfVerse said:
Hello All,

Firstly, what a wonderful place for people to help one and other. I am glad that I have stumbled across : )

I have posted this query in advanced because to me there it is advanced but if it is basic to others then please excuse me.

I can easily work out the probability of something happening every time at general probability or odds but I fall down when working out the probability of it happening a lesser number of times.

If there is a 43.5% of something happening on a single occasion.

If it is run on 15 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 12,13 and 14 times.
If it is run on 20 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 17,18 and 19 times.

If there is a 38% of something happening on a single occasion.

If it is run on 15 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 12,13 and 14 times.
If it is run on 20 occasions, what would be the chance of it happening 17,18 and 19 times.

Any help, particularly in how I go about calculating so that I know for future reference would be a massive help.

Hi ReamsOfVerse,

Welcome to MHB! :)

This sounds like a problem using the binomial distribution. This is when an event can either occur or not occur with some fixed probability, and we want to run this experiment multiple times.

Have you worked with this before? Is this question for a course or just your own interest?
 

1. What is the meaning of "likelihood of things happening on with regularity depending on initial probability"?

The likelihood of things happening on with regularity depending on initial probability refers to the probability or chance of an event occurring repeatedly in a predictable pattern based on its initial probability.

2. How is initial probability determined?

Initial probability is determined by taking into account all relevant factors and data related to the event, and using statistical methods to calculate the likelihood of the event occurring.

3. What is an example of an event with a high likelihood of happening with regularity based on initial probability?

An example of an event with a high likelihood of happening on with regularity depending on initial probability is flipping a fair coin. The initial probability of getting heads or tails is 50%, and over multiple flips, the likelihood of getting heads or tails will approach 50% as the number of flips increases.

4. Can the likelihood of things happening on with regularity change over time?

Yes, the likelihood of things happening on with regularity can change over time as initial probability can be affected by various factors such as new data, changes in circumstances, or external factors.

5. How can understanding likelihood of things happening on with regularity depending on initial probability be useful?

Understanding the likelihood of things happening on with regularity depending on initial probability can be useful for predicting future events, making informed decisions, and identifying patterns and trends in data. It is also an important concept in many fields such as statistics, economics, and risk management.

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