If Up to You, Would You Live in Natural Disaster Prone Area?

[berkeman]

That's not a bad idea. I was hoping for a list of cities or a map or something.

At the local citizen education forums that I've helped out with, we use several such maps from the USGS. When local residents see the contrast between the liquifaction maps and bedrock maps for the SF Bay Area, their eyes widen significantly...

https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/hazards

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-liquefaction

 

[Vanadium 50]

Or your horse! Or heaven forbid your house

And your little horse too!

 

[berkeman]

And your little horse too!

Oh, now you're making fun of my support horse, are you? That's a low blow! (oops, dammit!)

https://www.treehugger.com/thmb/q9A...-3112787-3d3381221eb04c67940978bd0c1dd750.jpg

 

[Vanadium 50]

Or your horse! Or heaven forbid your house!

Well that's a hose of a different color.

 

[jtbell]

Make sure your hose doesn't land on anybody!

It could wrap around their neck!

Well that's a hose of a different color.

View attachment 314988

Around here, hose are blue, not purple.

 

[JT Smith]

At the local citizen education forums that I've helped out with, we use several such maps from the USGS. When local residents see the contrast between the liquifaction maps and bedrock maps for the SF Bay Area, their eyes widen significantly...

https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/hazards

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-liquefaction

I must be a moron but I couldn't find those maps by following your links.

That said, I'm not surprised about the effect of the land composition. The epicenter of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was about 10 miles from where I was living at the time but my place came through relatively unscathed. I was actually traveling at the time and had left a 5 gallon glass carboy full of homebrewed beer that didn't turn out very well just sitting on a table. Fortunately it stayed put.

Meanwhile 60 miles away in San Francisco in the Marina district there was a much bigger effect due to the soil. I think that part of SF is built on landfill.

 

[berkeman]

I must be a moron but I couldn't find those maps by following your links.

From the first link:

 

[JT Smith]

Yes, I clicked on that link and went a little deeper but so far haven't found maps like you were describing ("liquifaction maps and bedrock maps for the SF Bay Area").

 

[gmax137]

Oh, now you're making fun of my support horse, are you? That's a low blow! (oops, dammit!)

View attachment 314982
https://www.treehugger.com/thmb/q9A...-3112787-3d3381221eb04c67940978bd0c1dd750.jpg

A friend is a captain for a large airline; he told me he had to deal with a passenger who insisted on bringing his miniature support horse onto the airplane.

 

[gleem]

If Up to You, Would You Live in Natural Disaster Prone Area?​

A better question is: If it is up to you why would you not evacuate if you live in a low-lying area, or on a sand bar like Sanibel Island pending a category 4 hurricane? Unlike a tornado, you have days to prepare for a hurricane of course assuming you listen to the radio or TV. No lives should have been lost.

Much of the shrimp fishing fleet was lost but why. It was so easy to put 200 miles between them and Ian.

We make our choice and take our chances.

By proper siting and proper building codes most homes could survive. Actually, a lesson was learned from hurricane Andrew which improved building codes for construction after 1992.

 

[Astronuc]

Florida hurricanes...Oklahoma tornados...These are two areas I never want to live no matter the salary (okay, for $500,000 or more, sure...I'm there!).

I have to imagine it sucks having having your house flooded/blown down every three or so years. Not to mention your loved ones possibly dying in the midst of it.

IF I were to live in such areas, I would be sure to construct a home accordingly. For example, in a hurricane/flood prone area, I'd have heavy (hardwood) or concrete support columns, and a reinforced frame for winds up to 180 mph. Similarly, if I lived in 'tornado alley', I'd build accordingly. I'd also pay attention to national weather.

I listen to people say they never expected the effects of Ian to be so bad! Well, they decided not to be informed or take responsibility. Many didn't prepare for loss of water and electricity, or loss of automobile, loss of road service, . . . Why not?! If one lives along the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts, one should expect a major hurricane, up to Cat 5, at least once in 30 years, and there are plenty of data available. It's not a secret!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane

From August 29, 2019 - https://spacecoastdaily.com/2019/08...-150-years-of-historical-hurricane-landfalls/

Hurricane Andrew (August 16, 1992 – August 28, 1992) swept across Florida late August 1992, only 30 years and 1 month ago.

 

[vela]

A better question is: If it is up to you why would you not evacuate if you live in a low-lying area, or on a sand bar like Sanibel Island pending a category 4 hurricane? Unlike a tornado, you have days to prepare for a hurricane of course assuming you listen to the radio or TV. No lives should have been lost.

There are all sorts of reasons why some people might stay put and hope for the best. Not everybody has the resources to pick up and leave even with several days' notice. Some of the elderly and people in poor health may not have the physical ability to leave on relatively short notice. Don't make the mistake of thinking just because you can do it, everybody else can.

 

[kyphysics]

There are all sorts of reasons why some people might stay put and hope for the best. Not everybody has the resources to pick up and leave even with several days' notice. Some of the elderly and people in poor health may not have the physical ability to leave on relatively short notice. Don't make the mistake of thinking just because you can do it, everybody else can.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-from-florida-ahead-of-hurricane-ian-s-wrath

Private Jets Whisk Wealthy From Florida to Aspen Ahead of Hurricane Ian

• Private jet flights from Tampa region jump 71% ahead of storm
• Jets make 319 flights in 2 days to spots like Aspen, Nantucket

saw this in news . . .It must be nice to be able to hop into a private jet and go to safety in Aspen.

 

[gleem]

There are all sorts of reasons why some people might stay put and hope for the best. Not everybody has the resources to pick up and leave even with several days' notice. Some of the elderly and people in poor health may not have the physical ability to leave on relatively short notice. Don't make the mistake of thinking just because you can do it, everybody else can

Of course, there are those that may not have the resources to move but I did say; if it was up to you. I saw interviews of people that could have but didn't and were lucky to be alive even one who stayed on his boat which was totaled

 

[russ_watters]

Of course, there are those that may not have the resources to move but I did say; if it was up to you. I saw interviews of people that could have but didn't and were lucky to be alive even one who stayed on his boat which was totaled

I saw one too. The answer to the question was something like "we thought about evacuating, but there was a lot of traffic so we decided not to." F'n really?! That's a level of stupid I can't wrap my head around. The storm surge is going to be 16 feet and your one story house is 10 feet above sea level. What's your plan for when you have 6 feet of water in your living room, or if your house ceases to exist, which is likely?

But I also agree the government has a responsibility to help those who are actually unable to leave.

[Edit]
Direct quote: "I'm the stupidest woman. I'm from Florida. I went through Andrew, Irma. I did not know it was going to be a 4...and a tidal surge." Fortunately her bed floated and the water level stopped rising a foot from the ceiling.

 

[Eric Bretschneider]

You have days of warning for a hurricane. You have at least several minutes of warning for tornado. Wildfires you have plenty of warning about as well. I suspect you live a very insulated life if these are your concerns.

Far more people are killed in auto accidents in Florida and Oklahoma each year than are killed by hurricanes and tornadoes respectively. Statistically you have a better chance of being murdered in those states than you do being killed by the disasters you are worried about.

Unless you are going to live under a rock and never come out, dangers exist in the world - every time you get out of bed. And if you stay in bed, you can look up the statistics about heart attacks in bed. Grow up and worry about something important.

 

[berkeman]

Wildfires you have plenty of warning about as well.

I agree with most of your post, Eric, except for this part. With most wildfires you have adequate evacuation time, but there are some that have just started, are blown by strong winds, and engulf occupied terrain very quickly. And depending on the terrain and the winds, they can cut off both ways in/out of the area. There are some very scary evacuation videos from recent years here in the Western US...

 

[Nugatory]

you have days to prepare for a hurricane

Preparing for a hurricane is like being stalked by a turtle.

 

[Eric Bretschneider]

I agree with most of your post, Eric, except for this part. With most wildfires you have adequate evacuation time, but there are some that have just started, are blown by strong winds, and engulf occupied terrain very quickly. And depending on the terrain and the winds, they can cut off both ways in/out of the area. There are some very scary evacuation videos from recent years here in the Western US...

Wildfires start as fires and spread. There is always an advanced warning, although I will agree the amount of warning varies.

If you are in a traffic accident, you most likely had at most a second (or less) of warning and there was nothing you could do to avoid it. You have a better chance of dying in a traffic accident than a hurricane, tornado or wildfire. Worrying about those kinds of events is a luxury, with planning the danger can be avoided or at least minimized.

 

[russ_watters]

The difficulty with wildfires, tornados and earthquakes is they are unpredictable. Fires can change size and course fast, and tornados while highly localized move randomly and can pop up without prior detection.

Hurricanes are predicted with high accuracy, days in advance.

Where I live (northeastern US), tornados are the only real risk, but it is a small one. I don't think the hurricane risk in Fla would bother me because as said if you are paying a non-zero amount of attention they are easy to avoid. The main issue with them is cost, which I assume is mitigated by insurance. I'm not sure how I'd feel about living in an earthquake prone area of California, but I suspect I wouldn't feel very good about it. The damage can be on a similar order of magnitude as a hurricane, and they pop up without warning.

I do also feel that we haven't done enough to mitigate hurricane and wildfire risk. Too many wooden homes in both areas.

Looking through the list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#21st_century

Worldwide it is earthquakes and tsunamis that tend to be the worst, especially tsunamis in the Western pacific and earthquakes in any developing country. The US doesn't get significant tsunamis.

And 2022 -- European heat wave, 23,000 people dead. That's one I can't wrap my head around either, that heat itself could be a natural disaster that kills a lot of people.

Also, I don't get some of the derisive responses to the OP. It reeks of #firstworldprivilege. Yes, some areas are more disaster-prone than others and no, not everyone has the option of easily picking-up and moving.

 

[gleem]

The officials of Lee county in which Cape Coral and Fort Myers are situated are being criticized for waiting until the last minute (i.e.,24 hrs prior to landfall) to declare a mandatory evacuation. It seems some do not understand the meaning of the hurricane forecast warning cone. Evacuations usually result in traffic jams. It would seem that the criticism is warranted considering that Lee county was in the cone since Monday and close enough even on Sunday to issue a warning.

I live in Port St. Lucie on the east coast about 100 miles north of Miami. We were on the edge of the cone when it projected into our region and we were given a warning to pay attention to the path. Eventually, it degraded to a tropical storm but missed us by only 60 miles.

 

[pinball1970]

Also, I don't get some of the derisive responses to the OP. It reeks of #firstworldprivilege. Yes, some areas are more disaster-prone than others and no, not everyone has the option of easily picking-up and moving.

This thread has been grim reading. The UK is described as temperate in terms of climate and it is relatively speaking. We and the rest of Europe are lucky in this respect so do not have to consider these things on the same scale (Spain has the Only desert in Europe though so like I said, relative)
Looking at a first world economy and technology in terms of options for moving makes me think of Bangladesh. Options there? Little contribution to climate change but they will have to deal with the consequence of extreme weather.

https://www.climaterealityproject.org/blog/how-climate-crisis-impacting-bangladesh

 

[Eric Bretschneider]

Also, I don't get some of the derisive responses to the OP. It reeks of #firstworldprivilege. Yes, some areas are more disaster-prone than others and no, not everyone has the option of easily picking-up and moving.

Respectfully, the OP's opinion reeks of #firstworldprivilege. The OP stated they would not live in some areas unless they were paid an exceptionally high salary.

Some natural disasters come with a warning, and some do not.

From the age of 5 to 12, I lived in rural Oklahoma. During that time the closest tornado came to us was over 30 miles away. The chances of a tornado hitting a specific area during any given year are very small.

The chances of a hurricane/typhoon during any given year are much, much higher. I lived in Florida (Gainesville) when Andrew hit Homestead. After Andrew, Florida dramatically revised their building codes. If you know a storm has a high probability of hitting your area and you choose to stay, that isn't a tragedy, its stupidity. If you are incapable of evacuating, then that is another story.

Natural disasters can be tragic. Having the luxury of selecting a place to live that minimizes your probability of experiencing a natural disaster is truly #firstworldprivilege.

My point is that the OP should be more concerned about non-natural disasters (traffic accidents, violent crime). They are more likely to experience one of those.

Do yourself a favor and look up how many deaths can be attributed to kerosene lamps each year. For the people who use them, they are a necessity. One that kills (directly or indirectly) millions of people every year. Balance that against wanting to be paid >$500k/year to possibly face a tornado or hurricane.

 

[Vanadium 50]

What's your plan

Close the doors and windows, what else?

 

[kyphysics]

Respectfully, the OP's opinion reeks of #firstworldprivilege. The OP stated they would not live in some areas unless they were paid an exceptionally high salary.

My point is that the OP should be more concerned about non-natural disasters (traffic accidents, violent crime). They are more likely to experience one of those.

Do yourself a favor and look up how many deaths can be attributed to kerosene lamps each year. For the people who use them, they are a necessity. One that kills (directly or indirectly) millions of people every year. Balance that against wanting to be paid >$500k/year to possibly face a tornado or hurricane.

I don't get the need to compare "privilege," though.

This question could be a real consideration for some when it comes to where they wish to live and maybe for others it's either not a big concern or one they cannot do much about, due to economics.

But, who cares if some people value/consider it and others don't/can't? Different worries probably do naturally arise at different income/wealth levels. A person living in a dangerous ghetto may one day make it out and have concerns about living in a coastal city (with possibly higher climate change risk) or not that he/she didn't have before. I wouldn't worry about that person's concern being a first world privilege.

Sure, some concerns may be so rare as to seem detached from "real" concerns - like maybe Jeff Bezos' 11th yacht's amenities or something like that - but this probably doesn't fit that category. I know people who do consider whether they'd want to live in a more "at-risk" global warming disaster location. I don't think they are out-of-touch, unreasonable, privileged, etc.

 

[Astronuc]

I saw one too. The answer to the question was something like "we thought about evacuating, but there was a lot of traffic so we decided not to." F'n really?! That's a level of stupid I can't wrap my head around. The storm surge is going to be 16 feet and your one story house is 10 feet above sea level. What's your plan for when you have 6 feet of water in your living room, or if your house ceases to exist, which is likely?

A lot of people chose to stay, but then called 911 to be evacuated/rescued in the middle of the storm!

 

[fresh_42]

A lot of people chose to stay, but then called 911 to be evacuated/rescued in the middle of the storm!

Even I - 5,000 miles away - have heard in advance that this won't happen.

 

[berkeman]

A lot of people chose to stay, but then called 911 to be evacuated/rescued in the middle of the storm!

Even I - 5,000 miles away - have heard in advance that this won't happen.

Same here, zero miles away. The wildfire evacuation orders were very clear -- "Past this date/time, if you are not evacuated, you are on your own. We will not send any emergency responders to your location if you call past this deadline. Take this very seriously..."

 

[Astronuc]

have heard in advance that this won't happen.

"Past this date/time, if you are not evacuated, you are on your own. We will not send any emergency responders to your location if you call past this deadline. Take this very seriously..."

Of course, but I was pondering on Russ's comment about trying to "wrap his head around" such thinking (or lack thereof) of those choosing not to evacuate only to realize that they should have evacuated. And emergency departments were getting calls from people who put themselves in danger and wanted to be rescued only to be told no, that they would have to wait until after the storm passed. The expectation that one should be rescued in the middle of a life threatening storm, when one had the chance days before, is just mind boggling. It's not somebody else's responsibility.

I reflect on the story of the three little pigs and the wolf. Two houses, one of straw, the other sticks, didn't survive, but the brick house did. There is a lesson from childhood there.

The news/information over the past three decades is that folks along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should expect a catastrophic hurricane at least once in 30 to 50 years; it's no longer 1 in 100 years, and certainly not 1 in 500 years. If folks don't know that, they haven't been paying attention!

There are parts of Texas, near the coast, where folks (and local governments) referred to 100-year floods. Well in the the 1970s, those started happening more frequently, and now some places are more like a major flood every 5 to 10 years, and one area near where I lived has had catastrophic flooding 3 times in 10 years, with some minor flooding in other years. Some areas have basically become flood plains. Too many folks along the Gulf Coast built in flood plains or areas of reclaimed swap, particularly in south Florida. Well, sea level rise and warmer atmosphere and ocean means those areas are reverting to swamp and/or tidal flood plains. That's Nature!

 

[fresh_42]

Of course, but I was pondering on Russ's comment about trying to "wrap his head around" such thinking (or lack thereof) of those choosing not to evacuate only to realize that they should have evacuated.

I only wanted to say how hard it is to believe, or how stupid people are.

a) Common sense says it's impossible without putting rescuers in danger.
b) It has been told before on all news channels.

Not to mention the technical impossibility. What kind of vehicles would work in a storm that blows entire marinas on land?

 

[berkeman]

a) Common sense says it's impossible without putting rescuers in danger.

In very unreasonable danger.

 

[Astronuc]

What kind of vehicles would work in a storm that blows entire marinas on land?

A very special kind of amphibious vehicle.

 

[berkeman]

Not to mention the technical impossibility. What kind of vehicles would work in a storm that blows entire marinas on land?

After the storm passes...

https://www.evergladesholidaypark.com/images/airboatrescue.jpg

 

[fresh_42]

After the storm passes...

View attachment 315151
https://www.evergladesholidaypark.com/images/airboatrescue.jpg

I would put more trust in that one:

But its gas-milage ratio is pure horror!

 

[Astronuc]

I was just listening to a piece on the radio about the Camp Fire (Nov 8-25, 2018) in which the towns of Paradise and Concow, California were almost completely destroyed, each losing about 95% of their structures. Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Fire_(2018)

https://www.nist.gov/news-events/ne...rnia-wildfire-could-guide-lifesaving-research
https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5121/campfire_cause.pdf

A smaller, but equally destructive fire (Babb Road fire) destroyed 80% of structures in Malden, WA (Sept. 7, 2020). This was personally significant since I had driven through that area only about 10 days before.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/the-day-a-wildfire-took-malden/

It has occurred to me before that what such towns need is a significant fire suppression system with one or more elevated water storage systems of about 1 million gallons or more feeding a bank of water nozzles tht could spray a curtain of water in front of a fire. Most of the time, it wouldn't be needed, but there are times when it would be, especially on dry, hot summer days like a lot of California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, and parts of Wyoming and Montana face during the current drought period.

I reflect on my experience of working for a municipal water department (I was one of the pump station and system operators for about 2.5 years while attending grad school), which had one elevated tank and three ground storage tanks, and my fire fighting training at an oil refinery (those water spray curtains really work!).

In 2021 alone, the Washington Department of Natural Resources has responded to nearly 2,000 fires consuming just over a half-million acres of land, representing the most individual fires in the last decade in the state, and the third-highest acreage as of Sept. 1, even as fires continue to burn.

And BTW - https://news.yahoo.com/ian-florida-island-residents-return-203502459.html

The number of storm-related deaths rose to at least 101 on Thursday, eight days after the storm made landfall in southwest Florida. According to reports from the Florida Medical Examiners Commission, 92 of those deaths were in Florida. Five people were also killed in North Carolina, three in Cuba and one in Virginia.

Ian is the second-deadliest storm to hit the mainland U.S. in the 21st century behind Hurricane Katrina, which left more than 1,800 people dead in 2005. The deadliest hurricane ever to hit the U.S. was the Great Galveston Hurricane in 1900 that killed as many as 8,000 people.