How are you preparing for the worst economic recession in 30 years?

[gravenewworld]

With unemployment fore casted to hit 8% or higher by next year?


How are you going to prepare for the strong possibility that you might get the pink slip and see your 401 k(s) become completely worthless?

 

[WarPhalange]

I'll be a grad student, hence I'll already be poor.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Obviously we'll cut back on charity. If that's not enough, we may have to let some of the servants go.

 

[OrbitalPower]

I'm becoming a mini-survivalist, not quite as extreme as these guys:

“People keep asking when this (economic crisis) is going to clear up,” says Hagmahani, who agreed to be interviewed on the condition that he be identified only by this pseudonym, which he uses for his survivalist blog, or by his first name, Rob.

The answer, he predicts, is that the country is entering what he calls a “Greater Depression.” “Maybe they jolly well better get used to the change in lifestyle.”

...

With foreclosure rates running rampant, financial institutions teetering and falling, prices for many goods and services climbing, and jobs being slashed, many Americans are making preparations for worse times ahead. For some, that means cutting spending and saving more. For others, it means taking a step into survivalism, once regarded solely as the province of religious End-of-Timers, sci-fi fans and extremists.

That often manifests itself as a desire to secure basic emergency resources — what survival guru Jim Wesley Rawles describes as “beans, bullets and Band-Aids.”

Rawles, speaking by phone from an “undisclosed location” somewhere between the Cascades and the Rocky Mountains, said he has seen traffic on his Web site, SurvivalBlog.com, explode in the last year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27244465/

Interestingly the article says a Utah business selling "underground dwellings" is seeing an increase in revenue.

 

[Monique]

I've already stocked up on some non-perishable foods, call me an extremist

 

[russ_watters]

How are you going to prepare for the strong possibility that you might get the pink slip...

Except by saving up a little cash so that you have a safety net with which to use while looking for a job, there isn't much you can do.

and see your 401 k(s) become completely worthless?

Why would a 401k become worthless? AFAIK, that's not really a possibility unless a person is absurdly stupid with the way they invested it (and I'm not sure there are any investments allowed that can lose everything). Most people with 401k's invest in well diversified mutual funds and the biggest risk with those is about a 40% drop over a year. If you invest properly, that isn't a big deal. The people it hurts most are those nearing retirment age who didn't shift their funds toward fixed-income like they were supposed to.

 

[Enthalpy]

There is no such thing as a guaranteed "biggest risk". Money has no guaranteed value, assets have none. When the company that keeps your shares, your bonds, your deposits closes, you've lost usually.

In 1929, governments let banks disappear. In 2008 they don't, but governments don't have the reserves they pretend to inject in the banks, so either governments have to borrow it - creating problems in the future - or print it like they did in 1973, but then money itself loses its value. So maybe you'll still have you deposits available at the bank, with a similar amount of dollar or euro, but this will buy you less goods. Arguably a less bad choice for governments, and apparently the one they chose this time.

In Argentina around 2001, money lost 4/5th of its value and so did nearly everything. I understand the current crisis as very similar to the Argentine one, with governments injecting more and more cash they don't have - called monetary mass inflation.

Recent attacks by some government against "tax heavens" and notation agencies let me doubt this government has confidence in its own currency.

Remember not to leave everything at your bank. In Argentina, bank offices closed. Anyway, there is too little paper money for everybody. And the ugly side showed in Russia, where notes with odd numbers were declared valueless. No more legal tender, and not tender at all, I would say.

One may try to have money in different currencies to keep some if one loses its value. Not legal in every country. In some countries, bank accounts in foreign currencies are legal, but with the associated risks: bank closed, forced conversion...

Buy in advance what you need, like a home or land? At least you have it. Question is if they'll lose their value before or after money does.

Storing food at least prevents from quick starving. It probably won't save the value of all your asset.

Choose another country? Several countries is Asia and South America may have a better future than in North America and Europe. The ones with sound economic policies and that didn't invest in US banks. Preferably food exporters little affected by climate changes.

Advices by, for instance, our Argentinian forum members would be highly welcome!

Ingot we trust?

 

[Astronuc]

I have two 401K's. One is strictly fixed income and keeps going up. The other is diversified, and as far as I know, it's still OK.

I'm optimistic for the future, and I'm working on various proposals for research and development, and work next year, and the year after that. There's enough work and R&D to last me several lifetimes.

 

[Topher925]

I'm going to stop using money. I'm going to start trading fur and spices for goods and services like back in the old days.

My 401k is worth about 40 pelts of beaver fur and about 300 grains of curry.

 

[gravenewworld]

Why would a 401k become worthless? AFAIK, that's not really a possibility unless a person is absurdly stupid with the way they invested it (and I'm not sure there are any investments allowed that can lose everything). Most people with 401k's invest in well diversified mutual funds and the biggest risk with those is about a 40% drop over a year. If you invest properly, that isn't a big deal. The people it hurts most are those nearing retirment age who didn't shift their funds toward fixed-income like the were supposed to.

You give people farrrrrrrrrrrrrrr too much credit. People always need protection from themselves and their own stupidity. How many of the massive wave of baby boomers that are on the verge of retiring are going to lose a huge chunk of their savings during this recession? Most baby boomers won't have another 10-20 years to wait for their investments to fully rebound from a recession that could last 1,2, even 3 years.

 

[BobG]

You give people farrrrrrrrrrrrrrr too much credit. People always need protection from themselves and their own stupidity. How many of the massive wave of baby boomers that are on the verge of retiring are going to lose a huge chunk of their savings during this recession? Most baby boomers won't have another 10-20 years to wait for their investments to fully rebound from a recession that could last 1,2, even 3 years.

The oldest baby boomers don't; the youngest do. Some will have to delay retirement a few years (I don't understand why retirement age for social security, etc, is so low, anyway).

For the short term, the population of squirrels in my neighborhood has grown too high anyway. It's time to start trapping them and eating them.

Actually, I'm more concerned about the government cutting spending on things like missile defense than I am the current recession, although the recession could make the consequences of reduced defense spending a lot more serious.

I'm doing nothing to prepare since, for some reason, I decided this was a good year to spend most of my savings on lawyers. On the other hand, at least I don't feel so bad about splitting up my 401(k).

 

[Evo]

My younger daughter prepared me for this a few years ago by spending all of my money so I have none left to lose.

 

[misgfool]

My younger daughter prepared me for this a few years ago by spending all of my money so I have none left to lose.

Feels good, doesn't it?

 

[Evo]

Feels good, doesn't it?

I need to thank her. Now I have no worries.

 

[OmCheeto]

My younger daughter prepared me for this a few years ago by spending all of my money so I have none left to lose.

I don't have any kids, so I had to do that myself.

Some of the aforementioned plans are on my list:
2008 charitable contributions: ~$1000
2009 forecast charitable contributions: ~$0

Of course, I have some of my own:

Transfer high interest rate credit card balance to zero interest rate card.
annual savings: $2k

Continue to perform electrical energy conservation experiments on myself:
Summer 2007: 18kwh/day
Summer 2008: 12kwh/day
November 2007: 26 kwh/day
November 2008: 20 kwh/day
projected annual savings: $500

Stop buying my homeless acquaintance two pints of swill everyday at the bar
projected annual savings: $650
(he says he'll pay me back some day. really. he will. "think of me as an investment" )

And last but not least, as I've mentioned before, now that the market has corrected itself, for the first time in my life, I'll be investing $100/month in the market until I retire in 8.3 years. Or until I'm layed off, fired, or quit.

 

[russ_watters]

You give people farrrrrrrrrrrrrrr too much credit. People always need protection from themselves and their own stupidity. How many of the massive wave of baby boomers that are on the verge of retiring are going to lose a huge chunk of their savings during this recession? Most baby boomers won't have another 10-20 years to wait for their investments to fully rebound from a recession that could last 1,2, even 3 years.

In your first post, you said "completely worthless" which is quite a bit different from "a huge chunk".

In any case, I'm not a big fan of helping stupid people who should know better. Managing a 401k is pretty easy.

 

[turbo]

My wife and I saw this coming a few years ago, and we bought a small, easy-to-heat cabin with a garden spot and almost 10 acres of wood-lot. We sold near the top of the housing market, and banked the money. Our two chest freezers are full of food, and I process and can additional food, too.

The Maine economy was in a bad downturn a few years before the rest of the country got nailed. We read the signs accurately, adjusted accordingly, and will just ride this out. A lobsterman bought the little house next door to my father's place. He owns his boat free and clear, unlike many others, and can afford to keep fishing for now, though the depressed price of lobster and the high cost of diesel are squeezing him. Many younger fishermen can't afford to pay the loans on their boats, buy fuel, and try to keep their families fed and they are leaving the trade. The largest and (usually) busiest builders of commercial fishing boats have laid off most of their staff - no orders.

We left the town that we last lived in because the tax base is dominated by a huge pulp and paper mill with 3 high-speed on-line coated paper machines. If that business failed (even with a "temporary" shut-down of one or two machines) property taxes would soar, even while people were losing their jobs, and losing their homes to foreclosure.

We moved to a much smaller (population) town with a tax-base that is comprised mostly of farm-land, wood-lots, residential properties, etc, so when the ax falls, we should be OK. The town will be stressed but not devastated.

 

[Monique]

My younger daughter prepared me for this a few years ago by spending all of my money so I have none left to lose.

you can always use her as your retirement

My boyfriend predicted that this was going to happen a few years ago (bursting of the housing bubble, banks in crisis), nobody believed him, most people are still in denial, but he was right.

 

[edward]

I am stocking up on canned spam.

Spam sales are up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/business/15spam.html?hp

 

[turbo]

My boyfriend predicted that this was going to happen a few years ago (bursting of the housing bubble, banks in crisis), nobody believed him, most people are still in denial, but he was right.

I was investing during the build-up to the savings and loan collapse, and while my co-workers were urging me to jump into our 401K's real-estate fund (earning 20% or more per year at the time) I stayed out. When the crash came, the fund's assets were frozen and my co-workers were despondent. One of my fellow regional salespersons lost over $250K in that crash , and he had one daughter in Middlebury College ($$$$$) and another who had just been accepted.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist (or an economist) to see when a sector of our economy is too highly leveraged and/or over-valued. Hopefully, the companies comprising majority of my current portfolio will hang on, weather the storm, and begin to increase in value and attract new investment in a few years. I don't need to tap my retirement savings now - I pity those that must.

 

[Monique]

You don't have to be a rocket scientist (or an economist) to see when a sector of our economy is too highly leveraged and/or over-valued. Hopefully, the companies comprising majority of my current portfolio will hang on, weather the storm, and begin to increase in value and attract new investment in a few years. I don't need to tap my retirement savings now - I pity those that must.

Exactly, but over the years he has been in many arguments over the issue houses are still overpriced over here. I'm glad you saw it coming and made the right decision.

 

[turbo]

Exactly, but over the years he has been in many arguments over the issue houses are still overpriced over here. I'm glad you saw it coming and made the right decision.

I understand. I got into long arguments with my cousin when she decided that she needed a new house. They started building the house while the Iraq war was ramping up and materials like plywood were way over-priced. The housing bubble burst about the time when they were ready to move in (the finishing, trim, etc, is still not complete) and they must be dangerously upside-down in their mortgage. Heaven help them if she or her husband loses their job.

I love my cousin, and I don't want to see her lose her house. Their timing (financing, building, etc) was absolutely wrong, but I couldn't convince her of that. If she had waited a few more years to begin, she'd be in good shape. The price of lumber is down due to the collapse of the housing bubble, and carpenters are begging for work. Too many people are willing to believe in fictions like a constantly-inflating housing market. When they see real-estate values outstripping inflation and more conservative investments, they jump in at the TOP of the market and set themselves up for some potentially huge losses.

 

[BobG]

you can always use her as your retirement

I'll move in with one of my kids, sing jingles from commercials over and over (actually, I'll change jingles about once a month - the least I can do is create a special occasion for my family), and I'll read all the signs out loud as we drive down the street.

I think I'll leave my dentures in odd places around the house, as well. Looking for them will give me something to do with my day; plus a little suspense over where they'll turn up should make the day a little brighter for the family.

Sometimes, the grandkids will find them first and give them to the dog. Then I'll chase them around the house with a rake.

If you're interested in that sort of thing, I have two single sons.

 

[turbo]

If you're interested in that sort of thing, I have two single sons.

What a match-maker! With you as a "dowry", they'll retire as bachelors.

 

[BobG]

I've finally started to prepare for the recession.

I figured the first step should be similar to the steps I used to learn how to read, so I started by watching the movie, "Fun With Dick and Jane".

Then I watched CNN's "How to Rob a Bank" (this was actually a two-year-old rerun). I was amazed to find Nigerians are really good at robbing banks. All the jokes about lame Nigerian scam letters are based on the inept scammers. The good ones don't mess around trying to steal a few thousand from Joe Sixpack; they target banks and coorporations for big money. It turns out they're even more gullible than Joe Sixpack.

Note: I would't really rob a bank. It was a very interesting news special, but I'd never rob a bank. I think starting an internet church might be less likely to land me in jail. I'm going to have to do a little more research on that idea.

 

[DEW]

I started realizing about a year ago that things were not as they should be. I changed my job to a much more secure one, paid off as much off the credit card as possible, and started saving. Good job I did, our petrol prices soared, as have our food and energy prices. Our entire banking system wobbled alarmingly and people are afraid to use the word 'recession'. Its correct political term is 'the credit crunch' and apparently its going to carry on until at least 2010. We've been warned of huge job losses in the white collar services to come, especially in London and the South East and, indeed, many jobs have already been lost, resulting in people losing their homes as they were unable to keep up with the mortgage repayments. As for me, well I'm keeping my head down, staying in a lot more, being careful with how much I spend and what I spend money on. What else can you do?

 

[redargon]

I can think of a few cash crops that may help people that are depressed about the depression...

 

[Pythagorean]

I've already stocked up on some non-perishable foods, call me an extremist

naw, I buy a couple cans every time I do my regular grocery shopping. I have a little stash building up.

It's kind of ridiculous for me, since i have a gun and I live in Alaska. On the other hand, hunting takes a lot more time than a college student can afford.

 

[Ms Music]

If you're interested in that sort of thing, I have two single sons.

If you are trying to pawn your sons off, they probably are far too young for MY taste, so I won't ask...

I keep hearing people that think the financial system will collapse, and all stocks, savings, and everything will be gone. I have a hard time believing the rich people will allow this to happen. (considering the senate & politicians etc make pretty good $$) What do you guys think? Are they just over reacting? Or will Bill Gates be standing in line at the food bank with me next year?

 

[Topher925]

I doubt the world economy will collapse and everything will go to hell. That is unless aliens attack our planet. But even that might unite us under a single non-monetary federation in order to defeat the aliens. Unless the destruction of the economy is the first step in the alien's plan. Perhaps Obama is an alien and the aliens are planning to take the world down from the inside. It took WWII to bring us out of the great depression so it seems fitting that WWIII would get us out of this "credit crunch". And since Germany has been put in their place many times there are no totalitarian countries to fight on a world war scale. So I guess WWIII will have to be fought against aliens in order to solve the economic crisis. This is all of course assuming aliens exist. Not only must they exist but we also must be able to find them, along with their flying saucers too. But if aliens do exist than we can certainly end the economic crisis. So we can simply solve the economic crisis by finding aliens. I think I have been grading lab reports for to long.

 

[Pythagorean]

I doubt the world economy will collapse and everything will go to hell. That is unless aliens attack our planet. But even that might unite us under a single non-monetary federation in order to defeat the aliens. Unless the destruction of the economy is the first step in the alien's plan. Perhaps Obama is an alien and the aliens are planning to take the world down from the inside. It took WWII to bring us out of the great depression so it seems fitting that WWIII would get us out of this "credit crunch". And since Germany has been put in their place many times there are no totalitarian countries to fight on a world war scale. So I guess WWIII will have to be fought against aliens in order to solve the economic crisis. This is all of course assuming aliens exist. Not only must they exist but we also must be able to find them, along with their flying saucers too. But if aliens do exist than we can certainly end the economic crisis. So we can simply solve the economic crisis by finding aliens. I think I have been grading lab reports for to long.

Well, everything going to hell is a bit dramatic, but I won't be surprised if a lot of people experience significant suffering in the next decade. I don't think it matters who steers the economy either, it's more a force of nature (specifically, human nature... one of the more complex 'natures'). The bubble has popped, we have a lot of making up to do for all that time we thought we were a rich country. Things like bailouts will suspend the inevitable and perhaps make them more drastic.

Economic crashes can be modeled as an SOC system. In general, small scale events happen a lot and large-scale events don't happen very often. Other examples of SOC systems are forest fires and earthquakes.

One consequence of SOC systems is that the more you try to inhibit the smaller-scale events, the more of a build-up you create for the larger scale events.

For instance, with the example of forest fires, by putting out the smaller and medium size fires, we leave a bunch of half-burned brush behind, allowing a nice primer for the next forest fire to get a faster head start.

In risk-assessment, if we design a bunch of protocol for all the little problems so that employers will know what to do, line by line, they're not going to do when something big hits that isn't in their book of protocols. This has been a criticism of NASA (and the US in general).

Bailouts are basically putting the smaller-scale fires out and/or focusing on the smaller failures that are all hinting at a much larger failure.

The best thing to do would be to just let go and let the market crash, but that's like trying to burn your slit throat with a cigarette lighter. Even if it will cauterize the wound and save you from bleeding to death, it's going to hurt like hell.

heh, that turned into more of a rant than I intended, my apologies (as I click the 'submit reply' button)

 

[neu]

I've already stocked up on some non-perishable foods, call me an extremist

You're an extremist.

I've decided to stop reading the papers and carry on regardless.

 

[Monique]

I've decided to stop reading the papers and carry on regardless.

So you're going for the ostridge approach.

 

[neu]

So you're going for the ostridge approach.

Yeah. I also eat a lot of non-perishable food but this is coincidental; I just happen to shop at Lidl.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Bailouts are basically putting the smaller-scale fires out and/or focusing on the smaller failures that are all hinting at a much larger failure.

Maybe, or maybe there is no logic in allowing chaos to govern economics. Allegedly we understand why the crash in '29 had such devestating consequences. And in fact we ended up doing much of what we have done recently to avert a credit collapse, but we waited three years before beginning to act. In other words, it is alleged that the worst of the great depression was avoidable.

Likewise, I know that auto accidents will happen and people will die, but I still choose to wear my seatbelt. I may not always be able to avoid a crash, but I can act to minimize the consequences.

In order to prepare... well, we have been preparing for a couple of years now. We keep debt to a minimum and live within our means. And we are always prepared for a crisis - food, and yes, weapons. Having grown up in LA, that's a no-brainer. The events following Katrina were a painful reminder of how bad things can get.