Grim Day on the Texas Power Grid

[nsaspook]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/dallas-sees-80-plus-degree-temp-swing-in-just-1-week/905385

The temperature in Dallas bottomed out at 2 below zero on Feb 16. With the high temperature soaring to 80 on Feb. 23, Dallas is looking at a big temperature swing of 83 degrees exactly a week later.

Oklahoma City also came in with an 86-degree temperature swing by Tuesday afternoon as the temperature soared to 71 degrees. In Oklahoma City, the mercury plunged to 14 degrees below zero last Tuesday.

 

[nsaspook]

One week later.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Tex...XCJzQIHaXbCigQ_AUoA3oECBAQBQ&biw=1920&bih=880

 

[PeroK]

One week later.
https://www.google.com/search?q=Tex...XCJzQIHaXbCigQ_AUoA3oECBAQBQ&biw=1920&bih=880

View attachment 278547

Is that a Ted Cruz re-election campaign tee-shirt?

 

[Astronuc]

A wide cast of characters throughout Texas’s lightly regulated power sector appear to have failed to heed experts’ long-standing warnings, notably in the wake of a similar series of outages almost exactly a decade ago. In February 2011, an ice storm struck the state, crippling power plants and forcing rolling blackouts. After that disaster, lawmakers and regulators studied how the state’s electric and natural-gas infrastructure needed to be shored up, as in other states, to withstand punishingly deep and extended winter freezes. Key recommendations from various experts were to require winterizing of power-generating equipment and fuel-delivery infrastructure such as gas pipelines, and to provide for https://www.brattle.com/news-and-knowledge/news/brattle-consultants-present-options-to-public-utility-commission-of-texas-for-changes-to-ercot-market-design that would be needed when demand surged or when some providers went offline. Both moves would impose somewhat higher costs and result in marginally higher electric rates. But they might have averted the much higher costs Texans now face for business disruption, broken pipes, flooding, and spiking electric bills—not to mention human suffering and death.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texas-blackout-preventable/

Power supplies became so scarce that what were supposed to be rolling blackouts ended up lasting for days at a time, leaving millions of Texans without lights, heat and, eventually without water. Even the Ercot control center lost water, and had to bring in portable toilets for its staff. It's just catastrophic, said Tony Clark, a former commissioner with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and a senior adviser at law firm Wilkinson Barker Knauer LLP. By Friday, when Ercot declared that the emergency had ended, 14.4 million people still lacked reliable access to public water supplies, and the crisis had already cost the state $50 billion in damages, according to Accuweather.

. . . some generators made a windfall as energy prices soared to $9,000 a megawatt-hour during the crisis. In all, generators have earned more than $44.6 billion in electricity sales alone this year more than 2018-2020 combined, according to Wood Mackenzie. Those earnings don't take into account any hedges that may have been in place. In the wake of the blackouts, the Public Utility Commission of Texas announced an investigation into the factors that led to the disaster.

Hell may not freeze over, but history suggests that Texas’s energy system does—and with some frequency. In 1989, in 2003, and in 2011, the state experienced, to varying degrees, simultaneous shutdowns of power plants and parts of its natural gas–producing infrastructure, as significant swaths of both of those critical systems were incapacitated by arctic temperatures, triggering blackouts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-02-20/texas-blackout-how-the-electrical-grid-failed

I don't know about the veracity of the claim of $50 billion in damages, but I suppose that will come out from any investigation into the causes of the Texas blackouts, root causes and effects/consequences.

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Four board leaders of Texas’ embattled power grid operator said Tuesday they will resign following outrage over more than 4 million customers losing power during a deadly winter freeze last week.

All of the board directors stepping down, including Chairwoman Sally Talberg, live outside of Texas, which only intensified criticism of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

The resignations are effective Wednesday, a day before Texas lawmakers are set to begin hearings over the outages in the state Capitol. The board members acknowledged “concerns about out-of-state board leadership” in a letter to grid members and the state’s Public Utility Commission, which oversees ERCOT.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/board-leaders-of-texas-grid-operator-resign-after-outages

 

[Office_Shredder]

Surely you should count the piles of money the generators made as damage to the general texas economy, which that 50 billion is probably not doing?

 

[mfb]

$50 billion could have bought a few additional power plants as backup and tons of work to make the infrastructure more cold-resistant.
We'll see how much money will be used to prevent a repetition of this.

 

[jedishrfu]

Just saw this article on the ERCOT meeting where it was shown that Texas nearly became a dark state for months:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/investigatio...ackout-that-could-have-lasted-months/2562592/

The video talks briefly about the catastrophe that was 4 mins away but not exactly what it was. They mentioned it could have paralysed cell towers making a really big mess with communications down. But at least we have horses, right?

UPDATE: WSJ has a writeup on the 4 min crisis:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-...lapse-during-freeze-operator-says-11614202063

And this article on the deregulated market in Texas where many consumers were forced into deregulated plans:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...tricity-market-raised-cost-to-consumers-by-28

No more hay for the horses.

 

[jedishrfu]

More details from our local station KUT:

https://www.kut.org/energy-environm...ds-away-from-collapsing-heres-how-it-happened

Basically, the frequency dropped and if it did too much then cascading shutdowns would occur, equipment damaged and the whole mess would be really hard to untangle after that.

I recall some commentary on the NY/Canada Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 where some radio stations noticed their records were sounding a little flat and a little slow:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_blackout_of_1965

Radio
An aircheck[4] of New York City radio station WABC from November 9, 1965 reveals disc jockey Dan Ingram doing a segment of his afternoon drive time show, during which he noted that a record he was playing (Jonathan King's "Everyone's Gone to the Moon") sounded slow, as did the subsequent jingles played during a commercial break. Ingram quipped that the King record "was in the key of R." The station's music playback equipment used AC motors whose speed was dependent on the frequency of the powerline, normally 60 Hz. Comparisons of segments of the hit songs played at the time of the broadcast, minutes before the blackout happened, in this aircheck, as compared to the same song recordings played at normal speed reveal that approximately six minutes before blackout the line frequency was 56 Hz, and just two minutes before the blackout that frequency dropped to 51 Hz.[5] As Si Zentner's recording of "(Up a) Lazy River" plays in the background – again at a slower-than-normal tempo – Ingram mentions that the lights in the studio are dimming, then suggests that the electricity itself is slowing down, adding, "I didn't know that could happen". When the station's Action Central News report comes on at 5:25 pm ET, the staff remains oblivious to the impending blackout. The lead story is still Roger Allen LaPorte's self-immolation at United Nations Headquarters earlier that day to protest American military involvement in the Vietnam War; a taped sound bite with the attending physician plays noticeably slower and lower than usual. The newscast gradually fizzles out as power is lost by the time newscaster Bill Rice starts delivering the second story about New Jersey Senator Clifford P. Case's comments on his home state's recent gubernatorial election.

 

[chemisttree]

When the frequency dropped early Monday morning, my power went out and stayed off for 2.5 days. I ran my backup generator nearly nonstop for that time. I thought that was a long time to be off! When I checked my transformer on Wed., I found this...

Notice that dangling “fuse” from the ceramic insulator? It’s supposed to be like this...

 

[chemisttree]

You don’t see snow on the roof subliming in the early morning sun like this very often in central Texas!

 

[chemisttree]

Just saw this article on the ERCOT meeting where it was shown that Texas nearly became a dark state for months:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/investigatio...ackout-that-could-have-lasted-months/2562592/

The video talks briefly about the catastrophe that was 4 mins away but not exactly what it was. They mentioned it could have paralysed cell towers making a really big mess with communications down.

The article mentioned the AC frequency dropped to 59.3 hz. Bad stuff happens when the frequency drops out like that.

My deer had plenty to eat!

 

[mfb]

in this [1965] aircheck, as compared to the same song recordings played at normal speed reveal that approximately six minutes before blackout the line frequency was 56 Hz, and just two minutes before the blackout that frequency dropped to 51 Hz.

That's crazy.

Here is the Texas grid frequency. The maximal drop was 0.7 Hz, but the frequency recovered within minutes.
Here is the largest incident in Western Europe (from 2006). The frequency dropped from 50 Hz to 49 Hz for a few minutes. Normal variations are below 0.2 Hz.

 

[jedishrfu]

Another grim story of the great Texas ice storm, a letter from an Austin paramedic:

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/aus...ers-share-experiences-battling-winter-storms/

I'm sure @berkeman can relate to this.

Go, First Responders!

 

[anorlunda]

In the aftermath of last week's events, there has been a flurry of discussions here on PF and elsewhere. For example, from today's Wall Street Journal:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/grid-r...ut-at-what-cost-11614335401?mod=hp_lead_pos12
Grid Reliability Is Feasible, but at What Cost?
Everybody can agree that electricity grids should be more reliable. It will be much harder to agree on what price to pay for that safety.

The climate is changing. Does that mean that we should harden every place on Earth against freezing? drought? fire? tornados? hurricanes?

Tornados left, Hurricane tracks right

Should we harden businesses against pandemics? I see that Disney was hit harder by COVID than airlines, and is demanding the same government bail-out as airlines or General Motors.

Should we protect innocent people from loss of income?

Personally, I worry more about financial instabilities in the electric sector brought on climate and social shifts. I discussed that ( https://www.physicsforums.com/insights/renewable-energy-meets-power-grid-operations/ ). But I also believe that society's resources are better spent on teaching itself how to withstand calamities with little injury rather than trying to prevent them. I discussed that ( https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/staged-blackouts.922146/ ). Hardly anybody agreed with me on that.

The list is endless, and the answers about "what price to pay" are few. We might stand a better chance at making rational policy if we had had one big money pool for "risk aversion" rather than a budget line item for every specific risk that someone imagines.

Who can answer the question, "What percent of my income should I spend on risk aversion?" If you personalize it, rather than imagining "someone else pays the bill", we have a better chance for rational answers.

 

[jedishrfu]

I wonder if a distributed approach would be better as in everyone connected to the grid and owning a storage battery and possibly solar panels. It would be like the days when computing was shared between machines as in the Great Prime search or the Protein Folding screen savers.

But I guess it would come down to maintenance by individuals and that doesn't always work out well.

 

[Averagesupernova]

I discussed that ( https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/staged-blackouts.922146/ ). Hardly anybody agreed with me on that.

Thanks for the memory. Lol. I hope you didn't take my disagreement too personally. In the other thread on this latest Texas issue, I had said some folks only learn the hard way. Of course that comment was political/philosophical in nature, but it generally extends to people's readiness.
-
So it's a tough question about what is to be spent to prevent what happened in Texas from occurring again. First of all, it looks to me as a general infrastructure failure, not just electrical utility. Personally I don't care one iota about Texas. But, like with most things, it doesn't end there. I need to care since, for one, Texas is a source of a fair amount of this country's natural gas. None of us are as independent as we like to think. What happens in Texas can and did affect the rest of us. So we can either accept a similar repeat in a few years with likely wider consequences, or do something about it.
-
On the bright side, maybe this latest issue will make folks think about being more prepared. At least for a while.

 

[Oldman too]

Some one needs to discuss https://acore.org/heartland-power-outages/ and macro-grids with https://www.ercot.com/... Things aren't going to improve in the long term anytime soon.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-power-outage-storm-climate-change/

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/30/climate/polar-vortex-weather-climate-change.html

 

[jedishrfu]

Recent VOX video on the Texas Grid disaster and how it could be a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the US:

 

[sophiecentaur]

Who can answer the question, "What percent of my income should I spend on risk aversion?" If you personalize it, rather than imagining "someone else pays the bill", we have a better chance for rational answers.

A good point and it brings up the choice between Big Government and Small Government. People cannot be relied on to make the best long term decisions - because they are not experts and tend to be only concerned by their taxes (in the short term). In places where there are frequent power cuts, the wealthy can often insulate themselves against them. Such places will often have Small Government.
Energy supply reliability - public health care - public education and infrastructure in general will only be good where suitable (uncorrupt) leaders are prepared to make choices which are often contrary to what the general populace would choose. This may not be a topic that PF encourages discussion about but this thread is totally to do with politics. Mending the roof when the Sun is shining.

 

[Dr.D]

People cannot be relied on to make the best long term decisions - because they are not experts and tend to be only concerned by their taxes (in the short term).

Socialism, anyone?? I think I'd rather be free, even free to make bad choices.

 

[sophiecentaur]

‘Freedom’ for you means freedom for others too and their choices may not work in your favour. A useful model of government would avoid both the excesses of Socialism and protect the less fortunate from the self interest of the Capitalists. Centerist is the Engineering solution and actually involves avoiding thoughtless idealism’s and thinking out the problems.

 

[Dr.D]

You are certainly correct that freedom for me means freedom for others as well. Choosing freedom for all is the way most of the people of Texas think. Every thrust of socialism is filled with "thoughtless idealism," with the only distinction being it is the "thoughtless idealism" of those in authority.

 

[jedishrfu]

So consider water how much to install a secondary water system that feeds your hot water? this allows for it to be replenished and circulated so no dead water.

How much for a solar powered / grid battery backup system or gas generator system to power your home?

prorate it over x years. Is it worth it?

 

[Dr.D]

This is not a dollars and cents issue. As I said earlier, I'd rather be free for each of us to make our own choices, good, bad, or otherwise. What you choose may look like failure to me, but you should be free to make that choice if it does not infringe on others. I should have the same liberty.

 

[mfb]

Following the same concept the government should stop offering the service of the police, and make it free to everyone to choose their own police to buy? Going one step up, why fund an army, let everyone make their own choice how to protect the country (or themselves)? Stop building roads, let everyone figure out on their own how to get from A to B. What could go wrong?
There are many things where "let everyone do their own thing" produces really bad results for everyone, or almost everyone. That's why people agreed to form governments to organize these things.

 

[sophiecentaur]

So consider water how much to install a secondary water system that feeds your hot water? this allows for it to be replenished and circulated so no dead water.

How much for a solar powered / grid battery backup system or gas generator system to power your home?

prorate it over x years. Is it worth it?

How many of us have the potential for such projects? The majority of urban dwellers are in shared buildings. A shared facility involves shared Choices and shared Cost. That’s politics in the basic sense.
As soon as we live together we lose some of our ‘freedom’(at least if we wish to be good neighbors).
A guy in a field is free to go off grid, build his own track, reservoir and his own PV system. How many million people could share a continent on those terms’? How many hundreds of millions need to live there?
Freedom is all relative and humanity (and pragmatism) has to kick in a some stage.
Back to the thread now. Large scale capital investment is needed on Energy supply for the masses. Clearly, in parts of the world, there’s not been enough. The only question is how it’s paid for. And that can only be arranged by Government.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Going one step up, why fund an army, let everyone make their own choice how to protect the country (or themselves)?

Give everyone the right to bear any arms they like and where does it get you when the guy next door has a bigger gun? And, of course, almost any 'tyrannical government' has bigger guns than the populace. So that 'choice', along with most others, is illusory.

 

[PeroK]

Socialism, anyone?? I think I'd rather be free, even free to make bad choices.

PF is no place to discuss politics. If you want to argue the merits or otherwise of socialism, I think you should do it elsewhere.

Be aware that not everyone shares your personal beliefs.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Socialism, anyone?? I think I'd rather be free, even free to make bad choices.

Luckily for the rest of us, you are never going to be 'free' to make all the choices you'd like to make. There is nowhere on Earth that you could do that - particularly not places where you can sit comfortably at your computer and chat about such matters on a civilised Forum like PF.
We are all free to vote, to get involved with Politics, to demonstrate and to write nonsense on fora. Very little more than that.

 

[Evo]

We don't allow political discussions, if the politics continue, the thread will have to be locked and political posts will be deleted.

 

[hutchphd]

We are not allowed to pick and choose. The preamble is a package deal:

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America

This is not a political statement.

 

[anorlunda]

Hats off to Practical Engineering's Youtube channel. In the video below, he did a much better job than I did of explaining what happened technically and economically. Those of you truly interested in these issues will find that 17 minutes spent viewing the video will be fruitful.

 

[anorlunda]

You may think this is a good idea, or a very bad one.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/berksh...plants-in-texas-11616699446?mod=hp_lista_pos4

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is pitching Texas lawmakers on a plan to spend $8.3 billion to build power plants that would run during electricity emergencies, a month after the state suffered devastating blackouts.

Chris Brown, the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Energy Infrastructure, said it could build 10 large natural-gas plants that would only operate during times of extreme need, and not otherwise compete in the state’s power market. He said the plants could be operational by November 2023.

“The state and its residents should have a reliable source of backup power generation during emergencies to protect residents and businesses,” said Mr. Brown. “This is a break-the-glass-in-case-of-emergency plan.”

In February, half of the state’s power plants failed during a severe cold snap, forcing the grid operator to institute widespread blackouts that lasted for four days.

The Texas legislature would need to approve changes to its laws to allow for a new regulated utility to provide emergency backup power.

Mr. Brown said he hoped to receive a 9.3% rate of return on the investment, the same as regulated electric companies that operate a portion of the grid such as Sempra Energy unit Oncor and CenterPoint Energy Inc.

He said Berkshire Hathaway would create a $4 billion financial guarantee the state would receive if the plants didn’t operate when needed. They would have a week’s supply of liquefied natural gas on site, fixing the problem of the state’s gas supply infrastructure freezing up.

I look at it as an example of how free markets can respond to needs. It is proposed in search of profits of course, but they propose to spend $8.3 billion of private money up front.

A guaranteed return on investment may be illegal. If so, I wager they have other ways to finance it up their sleeves. Wait and see.

 

[jrmichler]

UMMM, let's think about this.

Option 1: Spend $8.3E9 to build power plants that would run once every ten years.
Versus
Option 2: Winterize the power plants they already have at much lower cost with earlier completion dates.

It will be interesting to watch Texas agonize over this very difficult decision.

 

[hmmm27]

Option 3: build the plants - presumably coal or natural gas - which will avoid scrutiny and environmental oversight because they're just "for emergencies", said label also allowing billions in tax avoidance.

##x## years down the line when energy consumption is up (mostly a/c) bring them fully on line as a cost-saving measure.