DUARS Satellite Re-Entry: Impressive Light Show & Potential Debris Threat

In summary, the UARS satellite is expected to enter the Earth's atmosphere this weekend, sooner than originally predicted by NASA. While the exact trajectory is still uncertain, it is estimated that anyone in the vicinity of the satellite's return will witness an impressive light show. However, there is a 1 in 3200 chance of being hit by debris from the satellite, made of titanium, aluminum, steel, and beryllium, which weighs around 1,170 pounds. This probability is not specific to individuals, but rather the chances that at least one person somewhere on the planet will be hit, given the current uncertainty. As the satellite's strike zone shrinks over the next few days, the probability will rise for those still within
  • #1
Evo
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
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As most of you know the UARS satellite is returning to Earth this weekend...ooops!

Now NASA has determined that UARS is moving along at a quicker pace than predicted, and instead of arriving in late September or early October, the satellite is expected to enter the atmosphere this weekend.

While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.

The remnants will weigh somewhere around 1,170 pounds and be made of titanium, aluminum, steel and beryllium
And apparently the trajectory is right over Evo's house. :rolleyes: :bugeye:

http://news.yahoo.com/fema-prepares...NidXNpbmVzcwRwdANzdG9yeXBhZ2UEdGVzdAM-;_ylv=3

So, could some of our brilliant astrophysicists do a quick back of napkin projection of when my house will burst into flames?
 
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  • #2
Bye Bye, Evo
... and I thought evo is leaving pf :cry: :rolleyes::frown:
 
  • #3
A 1-in-3200 chance of being hit by debris? Yikes!

You need a steel umbrella, Evo!
 
  • #4
Wow! I would suggest moving to Don's place for the re-entry, but you'd draw the satellite in like a magnet and PF would lose you both.
 
  • #5
Evo said:
So, could some of our brilliant astrophysicists do a quick back of napkin projection of when my house will burst into flames?
Not enough data. When does your homeowner's insurance run out?
 
  • #6
rootX said:
... and I thought evo is leaving pf :cry: :rolleyes::frown:
I will if I get hit. :-p
 
  • #7
1 in 3200 is way too much for my liking. We all know Evo is magnetic.
 
  • #8
Jimmy Snyder said:
Not enough data. When does your homeowner's insurance run out?
In an apartment and don't have renter's insurance.
 
  • #9
Borek said:
1 in 3200 is way too much for my liking. We all know Evo is magnetic.
And look at the trajectory! Canada to S. America, look where Kansas is!
 
  • #10
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:
 
  • #11
Evo said:
In an apartment and don't have renter's insurance.
3200 to 1.
 
  • #12
Evo said:
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:
Darn! I'm booked! I have to sort my button collection.
 
  • #13
Evo said:
Hey, I'm free this weekend...who would like for me to visit them for the weekend? :smile:

I would, but I live with my parents and we don't have a spare room. Maybe you can go visit Lisa and meet me on the way?
 
  • #14
turbo said:
Darn! I'm booked! I have to sort my button collection.
I'll be alphabetizing my m&ms
 
  • #15
Jimmy Snyder said:
I'll be alphabetizing my m&ms
:smile:
 
  • #16
Oooh, I'll bet Greg will be home.
 
  • #17
Evo said:
Oooh, I'll bet Greg will be home.
Greg is never home. He'll probably be hiding out in tierra del fuego.
 
  • #18
Evo said:
http://news.yahoo.com/fema-prepares...NidXNpbmVzcwRwdANzdG9yeXBhZ2UEdGVzdAM-;_ylv=3
From the article:
While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.​

The 1/3200 chance is a bit misleading. It is not the probability you will be hit. It is the probability that at least one person somewhere on the face of planet will be hit by debris given 100% uncertainty in when it will come down. The chances that a specific individual will being hit are about 1/3200/7 billion. The satellite, with an orbital inclination of 56.7 degrees, swings over almost all major cities on the planet. As of now, the strike zone apparently still covers pretty much everything between -57 and +57 degrees latitude.

This strike zone will shrink dramatically over the next few days. For all those who remain in it, or remain close to Evo (same thing, thanks to the Evo effect), the probability will rise dramatically. For the vast majority of us, the probability will drop to exactly zero.
 
  • #19
D H said:
From the article:
While the satellite’s exact trajectory is still uncertain, anyone in the vicinity of UARS’ return to Earth’s atmosphere will be privy to an impressive light show — and be subject to a 1-in-3200 chance of getting hit by debris, according to NASA.​

The 1/3200 chance is a bit misleading. It is not the probability you will be hit. It is the probability that at least one person somewhere on the face of planet will be hit by debris given 100% uncertainty in when it will come down. The chances that a specific individual will being hit are about 1/3200/7 billion. The satellite, with an orbital inclination of 56.7 degrees, swings over almost all major cities on the planet. As of now, the strike zone apparently still covers pretty much everything between -57 and +57 degrees latitude.

This strike zone will shrink dramatically over the next few days. For all those who remain in it, or remain close to Evo (same thing, thanks to the Evo effect), the probability will rise dramatically. For the vast majority of us, the probability will drop to exactly zero.
:smile:

Wait, what am I rofling about, the Evo Effect is a proven effect.
 
  • #20
Bye evo!
 
  • #21
Evo said:
:smile:

Wait, what am I rofling about, the Evo Effect is a proven effect.

It would be best for humanity for you to relocate to the middle of the Pacific till it comes down.
 
  • #22
Bora Bora! Yay!
 
  • #23
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!
 
  • #24
I was thinking of avoiding the swimming pool as another article predicted that there was a greater chance for the satellite to hit large bodies in water.

Oh wait, that's large bodies of water...nevermind.
 
  • #25
Evo is shooting for funniest member!
 
  • #26
Ms Music said:
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!
Don't stop there. If we get her in orbit around the moon that debris will become really confused!
 
  • #27
Ms Music said:
Evo, relax! The 1/3200 is only for people on the ground. Just don't be on the ground when it hits and you will be fine.

I'd suggest a trampoline, but you might break your ankle...

Lets all send her helium get well balloons!

zoobyshoe said:
Don't stop there. If we get her in orbit around the moon that debris will become really confused!
Please don't send me up without oxygen.
 
Last edited:
  • #28
Evo said:
Please don't send me up without oxygen.
Oh, sure! Now you demand amenities! Another spoiled member of the privileged class demanding special treatment.
 
  • #30
I was living in Phila. when Skylab fell from the sky. It landed in the ocean off of Perth Australia, quite literally the antipode of Phila. I think Kansas is the antipode of Northern South Jersey.
 
  • #31
Jimmy Snyder said:
I was living in Phila. when Skylab fell from the sky. It landed in the ocean off of Perth Australia, quite literally the antipode of Phila. I think Kansas is the antipode of Northern South Jersey.
I need to buy a new globe!
 
  • #32
I thought you were leaving PF when I saw the subject, just as rootX did. Don't ever choose a title like that again for any reason OTHER than your departure from the forums. :mad::mad:
 
  • #33
Pengwuino said:
Bye evo!
Evil penguin,

Seriously Evo, with your track history, this could be very very very bad, if I could take a direct head on bird strike to the top of a helmet (I am not unlucky), this has, can you say, "Echhh" written all over it.
The remnants will weigh somewhere around 1,170 pounds and be made of titanium, aluminum, steel and beryllium

A one to two pound bird traveling at 50 mph is one thing, but a chunk of satellite with Evo's name on it is a totally different matter. My suggestion, find a neighbor with a concrete reinforced safe room, play cards, talk, have a psychic reading for God sakes. I vote we duct tape Pengy to a chair in Evo's apartment and leave him there till the debris field passes, and oh yeah, stuff a dead smelly fish in his beak. That visual is simply stunning, I outdid myself this time guys.

Rhody... :-p
 
  • #34
Dembadon said:
I thought you were leaving PF when I saw the subject, just as rootX did. Don't ever choose a title like that again for any reason OTHER than your departure from the forums. :mad::mad:
sorry
 
  • #35
Evo said:
sorry
Evo scurries under a rock and hides from the PF collective, members like myself included.

Rhody...
 

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