Clinton-Obama '08: Possible Historic Ticket?

[Astronuc]

Obama pulled in $25 million for the first quarter, just behind Clinton's $26 million.

Interesting! Don't write off Obama yet.

At a minimum, that surely has to make folks like Richardson, Dodd and Biden reconsider their chances.

Long shots anyway. They would better serve the country in their current positions, or retire.

Edwards looks like the only one that's going to be able to hang in there just to reach the primaries.

Obama - Edwards.

Unless Gore enters, . . .

I hope not.

 

[turbo]

Obama - Edwards.

Edwards-Obama would be a winner IMO, as would Gore-Edwards or Gore-Obama. In fact, I think that Gore could win with McCain as his running mate, despite McCain's habit of toadying up to the Bush misadministration. I can't imagine any man who spent as much time as a prisoner of war and being tortured embracing the Bush/Cheney/Gonzales definition of torture and exposing our own soldiers to that kind of abuse, especially since Bush was back home partying and ignoring his Air National Guard obligations while US prisoners were rotting in NVN jails.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Why? Because the country is not ready to put a female in the Whitehouse as President and the same with placing a black into the Whitehouse.

When I heard that my cousin - a guy who [according to dad] was likely in the KKK at one time - likes Obama, that notion went out the window for me. We are talking about people who grew up with a slave state mentality and who openly expressed their racism [in the past].

And we have to factor in the changing demographics in the Southern states...and the northern states for that matter. Obama should pull both the black and hispanic vote without even trying.

 

[turbo]

When I heard that my cousin - a guy who [according to dad] was likely in the KKK at one time - likes Obama, that notion went out the window for me. We are talking about people who grew up with a slave state mentality and who openly expressed their racism [in the past].

There is nothing "in the past" about suburban and rural southern areas in which affluent white kids do not attend public schools, but instead attend segregated "Christian academies". It is prevalent today. I have spent a lot of time in the deep south and have gotten to know a lot of the rank-and-file voters there. Obama is toast in the south. Yes, there is minority voter support to help him, but there has been decades of gerrymandering that ensure that the votes of minority populations will be diluted and result in losses in the electoral vote.

 

[BobG]

Interesting! Don't write off Obama yet.

At a minimum, that surely has to make folks like Richardson, Dodd and Biden reconsider their chances.

Long shots anyway. They would better serve the country in their current positions, or retire.

They're long shots with little chance, but any of the three would better choices than the three front runners. Probably the only way I'd vote for them is if Republicans nominate someone like Gingrich, but at least all three are qualified to be President.

And we have to factor in the changing demographics in the Southern states...and the northern states for that matter. Obama should pull both the black and hispanic vote without even trying.

Why would hispanics vote for Obama? They're both minorities, but they're different minorities.

My view might be a little skewed. Most of the hispanics in office in the West are pretty conservative, even if some do happen to be Democratic, but, then, a liberal candidate would never get elected out here regardless of their ethnicity.

 

[denverdoc]

well I was thrilled with the news that Obama might have actually exceeded Hillary's efforts as some of those monies may be earmarked for other uses. The south is a lost cause for the dems as we all know, (not that this is the exclusive province of racism left in USA) so maybe he can pull it off. With charisma, eloquence and capable of forming AND EXPRESSING a logical argument, he's the only candidate that faintly inspires a hope that politics is not quite dead here--moribund yes, which is why youth turnout is likely so low--they are cynical to beat the band.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Why would hispanics vote for Obama? They're both minorities, but they're different minorities.

Thanks for pointing that out. I guess I can't defend this pov, but I think the hispanics will identify more with Obama than any other candidate [less Richardson of course, but I don't expect him to go far]. I guess the simplest way to say it is that he isn't white. Now, if Obama was an idiot or a dud, that would be different, but when I consider his ethnicity and his charisma, this is how I see it going. Perhaps the best way to say it is that he will be perceived as an alternative.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Note that Obama had ~100,000 donors to Hillary's ~50,000. About 1/3 of Obama's donations came through the internet. [as per The News Hour [PBS] tonight]

Notably, the dems raised about 30 million more than the reps.

 

[denverdoc]

interesting re the internet/grass roots donations issue. Evo and I got tangled up in a thread a while back where I took the position that cheap and unrestricted internet access is the only real hope to keep democracy alive and kicking in a two party system where too much $$ spent on campaigns, and those increasingly nasty.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

CNN just reported that in the twenty-four hours following Obama's disclosure of his 25 million, he received total donations of $435,000 on the internet from new contributors.

 

[Astronuc]

I guess Obama better get down south and start testing the waters.

I think if anyone wants to be president, she or he need to get to the people and listen, and answer questions.

 

[denverdoc]

So true, ah the whistle stop days of yore. But Astro, help me out here, isn't it possible to lose the entire south and still win if he/she carries big states in East, california, and at least splits the rest of the west?

 

[turbo]

So true, ah the whistle stop days of yore. But Astro, help me out here, isn't it possible to lose the entire south and still win if he/she carries big states in East, california, and at least splits the rest of the west?

Lose Florida and Texas and still win? That's not a plan.

 

[Astronuc]

So true, ah the whistle stop days of yore. But Astro, help me out here, isn't it possible to lose the entire south and still win if he/she carries big states in East, california, and at least splits the rest of the west?

Maybe.

Let's look at the last election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004

If Gore had one Tennesse and one other, or if Kerry had won Ohio or Colorado + another state, either might have won the presidential election.

One thing I noticed about Kerry is that he and his campaign by-passed several states, which they had written off to Bush. This was so wrong! Even if that was the case, Kerry should have gone there anyway to state his case.

It seems that politicians still play the 'popularity contest' game. It shouldn't be. If we allow that to continue, then we will be mired in mediocrity or worse.

Any election should include a substantive discussion/debate on the critical issues: the economy, especially a sustainable economy, energy policy, air and water quality, national security, education, taxes, transportation and infrastructure, scientific research, employment/unemployment/retirement, medical care, . . . . .

 

[Astronuc]

Lose Florida and Texas and still win? That's not a plan.

But then one needs Ohio and . . .

One needs to think about representing and advocating for the entire nation, not just the one's where one enjoys popular support.

 

[denverdoc]

Maybe.

Let's look at the last election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004

If Gore had one Tennesse and one other, or if Kerry had won Ohio or Colorado + another state, either might have won the presidential election.


Any election should include a substantive discussion/debate on the critical issues: the economy, especially a sustainable economy, energy policy, air and water quality, national security, education, taxes, transportation and infrastructure, scientific research, employment/unemployment/retirement, medical care, . . . . .

Thanks, I guess that was my thought, Ohio plus split the west by nabbing Colorado and Nevada (Reid factor?, early primary?), maybe NM, plus all the other blues from 2004.

 

[denverdoc]

But then one needs Ohio and . . .

One needs to think about representing and advocating for the entire nation, not just the one's where one enjoys popular support.

agreed, which is why we should ditch this electoral college nonsense entirely!
It makes it into a game where enormous amts of $$ are poured into a few key states, and the remainder remain ignorant.

 

[Evo]

One needs to think about representing and advocating for the entire nation, not just the one's where one enjoys popular support.

THANK YOU!

Once I see a politician stop politicing, I'll consider voting for them. All I see are politicians going after a sure thing. It smacks of insecurity. They only care to forward their own agendas and only care about being elected.

Unfortunately Obama has not shown the backbone he needs to. I don't have anyone right now that I would vote for.

 

[denverdoc]

THANK YOU!

Once I see a politician stop politicing, I'll consider voting for them. All I see are politicians going after a sure thing. It smacks of insecurity. They only care to forward their own agendas and only care about being elected.

Unfortunately Obama has not shown the backbone he needs to. I don't have anyone right now that I would vote for.

Evo,

I don't know much about the guy, what were you referring to re lack of spine?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

That's what I'm wondering. I think the one quote alone disproves that idea. He stood up to Bush when Bush was King AND before the war began. He called it 100% correctly and he said it loud and clear. What more spine does one need than to stand up for what's right when it counts the most and when in the minority.

I know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States, or to his neighbors, that the Iraqi economy is in shambles, that the Iraqi military is a fraction of its former strength, and that in concert with the international community he can be contained until, in the way of all petty dictators, he falls away into the dustbin of history.

I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda. I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars.

- Barack Obama, October, 2002
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16903253/page/2/

With a name like Obama, and considering the post 911 frenzy and fervor, that took a hell of a lot of guts.

 

[BobG]

Thanks for pointing that out. I guess I can't defend this pov, but I think the hispanics will identify more with Obama than any other candidate [less Richardson of course, but I don't expect him to go far]. I guess the simplest way to say it is that he isn't white. Now, if Obama was an idiot or a dud, that would be different, but when I consider his ethnicity and his charisma, this is how I see it going. Perhaps the best way to say it is that he will be perceived as an alternative.

You wouldn't be the only person to assume a minority is a minority and all minorities must be the same. Check this article, titled http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/0703/brazilebelcher.php . Quite an in depth analysis of the hispanic vote, eh?

In 2006, Democrats were helped by Republicans taking a much harder stance against immigration than Democrats. In 2008, McCain could at least split the Hispanic vote and would stand a good chance of taking over 50%. Depends on Republicans like Tom Tancredo. Right now, he's the Democrat's best friend. (http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/061114/14latinos.htm)

So far, ignoring Hispanics is a good strategy for Democrats only because Republicans are intentionally alienating Hispanics. It would be hard to believe ignoring them would be a good long term strategy.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You wouldn't be the only person to assume a minority is a minority and all minorities must be the same.

That isn't what I said, but thanks for going out of your way to make it sound that way.

btw, I grew up with inner city Blacks and Mexicans. My opinion is based on my intimate knowledge of both cultures. Of course, you wouldn't be the first to assume that Blacks and Mexicans are the only minorities.

 

[Astronuc]

Obama Nearly Equals Clinton's Campaign Total
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9359779

All Things Considered, April 4, 2007 · Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's bid for president took on a new luster Wednesday, with the announcement that he raised "at least $25 million" in the first three months of this year. The total puts Obama, who's been in national politics for roughly two-and-a-half years, essentially even with Democratic rival Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, who has raised $26 million.

The Clinton campaign announced its numbers on Sunday. In addition to her $26 million, Clinton transferred another $10 million from her Senate campaign account. Obama, who ran for Senate in 2004, doesn't have any such reserve.

But Obama may have raised more than Clinton in terms of dollars available for spending in the primaries. Both candidates — as well as Democrat John Edwards and Republicans Rudy Giuliani and John McCain — are simultaneously soliciting money for the primaries and the general election. A candidate can ask a donor for a maximum of $2,300 for the primaries — and another $2,300 for the general election. The only drawback is that general-election money cannot be used in the primaries.

Obama says his primary money account totals about $23.5 million. The Clinton campaign hasn't given a breakdown. But her fundraising for general-election money has been more aggressive than Obama's, and observers say it could reduce her primary money account by several million dollars.

Another Obama eye-opener: He claims to have 100,000 individual donors — twice as many as Clinton declared.

Next - Obama's New Mission: Connect with Iowans
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9396730

Perhaps in Iowa. Afterall, he's from Illinois.

But the challenge will be in the south!

In his keynote address to the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Obama spoke of national unity -

The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into Red States and Blue States; Red States for Republicans, Blue States for Democrats. But I've got news for them too. We worship an awesome God in the Blue States, and we don't like federal agents poking around in our libraries in the Red States. We coach Little League in the Blue States and yes, we got some gay friends in the Red States. There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq and patriots who supported the war in Iraq. We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America.

Let's see if he follows through during the next 18 months.

Shame that the article on Wikipedia has been vandalized.

 

[denverdoc]

quotes on posts 125 and the one above are making me lean more in his direction. I wasn't particularly thrilled with his comments on health care yesterday, as this is one of the clearest priorities facing our country, and he ended up being a bit mealy mouthed and fell well short of what I and many if not most progressive MD's view as a mandate. But he hinted it might look like Canada, yet willing to do what Astronuc suggested, talk to the folk affected. Hit the trenches. Thats what I most dislike about Bush, he is on another planet and so above the fray. I may just throw 50 bucks Obama's way. Nothing substantive here, just marveling at the two quotes.

What I like most is that these were just quotes, vs campaign speeches. Hope Evo isn't right and he does the ascending politician quicksand maneuver into the moral abyss...

 

[Astronuc]

Fundraising Success Adds to Interest in Obama
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9409843


As for health care - the big question is - where is the money going to come from?

It's one thing if 1/1000 or 1/10,000 or 1/100,000 need significant medical care, but if 1/100 or 1/10 need it then it becomes an expensive proposition.

Insurance is based on a small fraction at risk. Medical care, especially as one ages, is an almost certainty.

And many health problems are preventable.

 

[BobG]

That isn't what I said, but thanks for going out of your way to make it sound that way.

btw, I grew up with inner city Blacks and Mexicans. My opinion is based on my intimate knowledge of both cultures. Of course, you wouldn't be the first to assume that Blacks and Mexicans are the only minorities.

You're welcome.

Uh, I mean, sorry. I could have led into what I was trying to say a lot better. I just don't think Hispanics would vote for Obama because he's not white. It's a toss up which way their vote goes depending upon which candidate addresses things they're concerned with.

 

[denverdoc]

Fundraising Success Adds to Interest in Obama
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9409843


As for health care - the big question is - where is the money going to come from?

It's one thing if 1/1000 or 1/10,000 or 1/100,000 need significant medical care, but if 1/100 or 1/10 need it then it becomes an expensive proposition.

Insurance is based on a small fraction at risk. Medical care, especially as one ages, is an almost certainty.

And many health problems are preventable.

We had the health care debate recently elsewhere--so won't pull this thread off on a tangent. Just the overall view, we are the only industrialized modern country without one, and the money we do spend doesn't buy us better health overall. Prevention would be important, and cost containment measures a necessity. When healthcare is treated as a commodity, prices tend to skyrocket as demand tends to be inelastic. And for those who can't afford routine care, and who then wait before seeking care cost much more to treat. Current system is a disaster, and any reform must be more than something like the Massachusetts policy that seeks to levy penalties on those without insurance.

 

[Astronuc]

O bama! http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070509/ap_on_el_pr/obama_tornadoes

RICHMOND, Va. - Barack Obama, caught up in the fervor of a campaign speech Tuesday, drastically overstated the Kansas tornadoes death toll, saying 10,000 had died. The death toll was 12.

I hope doesn't keep making these kind of mistakes - people will confuse him with Bush.

 

[Astronuc]

So, Hillary was in Albany yesterday to get an endorsement for Governor Spitzer, a democrat. Hillary claims she will stop the war in Iraq if she is elected president.

Given such Bull****, er I mean hyperbole, so early in the campaign, I don't want to even think about how bad it will get later this year and next.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

O bama! http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070509/ap_on_el_pr/obama_tornadoes

I hope doesn't keep making these kind of mistakes - people will confuse him with Bush.

As a way to stay sharp, Obama likes to use bases other than base ten.

 

[BobG]

As a way to stay sharp, Obama likes to use bases other than base ten.

I'm impressed. I can count the number of people that know how to count in base (54/29) on one hand.

 

[Astronuc]

After I made the previous post, I recalled that in addition to ending the war, Hillary promised universal health care. I think I heard that Schumer was there.

I am waiting for her to claim that she will stop GW, cure cancer and diabetes, eliminate the national debt, and put a chicken in every pot.

 

[denverdoc]

Hillary, I suspect is a true politician; much more concerned with power base, and some ill defined remorse/wannabe a hero for the disenfranchised, yet advocates for the wall in the ME, and who perhaps politics aside, everyone is entitled to shot at doc. I hope we can do better than trade one set of croney-ism partners for another under Hillary, but hav my doubts. Too connected. and not in a good way.

 

[check]

Hillary's been consistently ahead in the polling of which democrat is supported more (although the gap between her and Obama is fairly narrow). However, when you look at two-way contests for dem vs gop, while Hillary does score higher than all the major gop contenders (Giuiliani, McCain and Romney), the gap is still pretty narrow (except Romney, wide gap). Compare that with two-way contests with Obama vs gops and Edwards vs gops. Their leads are considerably greater. It really annoys me because in primary opinion polls Clinton is way ahead, but Edwards and Obama are more electable. (assuming opinion polls are correct.. :p )

 

[cronxeh]

300 million people and these 2 are the best candidates we can come up with?