Calculate Odds of Getting Hit by Falling Satellite

In summary, NASA has warned of a 1-in-3,200 chance that a part of a satellite will hit someone as it comes crashing down to Earth in a few weeks. However, the actual likelihood of being hit may vary depending on factors such as location and lifestyle.
  • #1
steve321
25
0
so NASA's saying a satellite's going to come crashing down in a few weeks

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/8751605/Nasa-warns-of-fresh-risk-from-468m-satellite-falling-from-space.html


"Scientists estimate the debris footprint will be about 500 miles long with a 1-in-3,200 chance a part a satellite part could hit someone. "

okay, so there's a 1/3200 chance someone's getting hit. there's a lot of people on earth. does that make my odds of getting hit a lot smaller?! like 1/3200 x 1/7 billion or however many people we have?

or are the two things unrelated? as a faceless, random somebody, are my odds of getting nailed by some piece of satellite 1/3200 like they are for everyone else?

i feel like this has to do with conditional probability but am not sure.
 
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  • #2


It's not so simple. Obviously, only people on the trail have a chance to be hit. Somebody in (say) Tokyo won't have a chance to be hit. So the people at risk are not 7 billion.
Furthermore, some people on the trail have less chance on being hit than others. People who live mostly inside, for example...
 

Related to Calculate Odds of Getting Hit by Falling Satellite

1. What is the likelihood of being hit by a falling satellite?

The likelihood of being hit by a falling satellite depends on several factors, including the size and trajectory of the satellite, the location of impact, and the population density of the area. However, the overall odds of being hit by a falling satellite are extremely low, estimated to be about 1 in 1 trillion.

2. How do scientists calculate the odds of being hit by a falling satellite?

Scientists use a combination of data and mathematical models to calculate the odds of being hit by a falling satellite. They take into account the size and speed of the satellite, its trajectory, and the probability of impact in a given area. This information is then used to determine the overall likelihood of being hit.

3. What are some common factors that affect the odds of being hit by a falling satellite?

The size and speed of the satellite, as well as its trajectory, are the main factors that affect the odds of being hit. Additionally, the location and population density of the impact area can also play a role. For example, a satellite falling over a heavily populated area would have a higher chance of causing damage than one falling in a remote area.

4. How often do satellites fall to Earth?

Satellites do occasionally fall to Earth, but it is a rare occurrence. According to NASA, an average of one satellite falls back to Earth each week, but most of these are small and burn up in the atmosphere. Larger satellites falling to Earth are much less common, with only a handful of incidents occurring in the past few decades.

5. What safety measures are in place to prevent being hit by a falling satellite?

There are several safety measures in place to prevent being hit by a falling satellite. First, satellites are designed to burn up in the atmosphere when they re-enter, reducing the risk of impact. Additionally, space agencies and organizations track satellites and their trajectories to predict potential impacts and warn affected areas. Finally, international agreements and regulations require satellites to be de-orbited and disposed of safely, reducing the number of potential falling objects.

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