BREXIT - more good than bad or more bad than good?

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In summary: Granted there might well be an economic difference between countries that never joined and one that leaves the EU even though Britain has its own currency. But I object to the... general panic about what might happen.
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  • #38
mheslep said:
A vote by 30 million people is "Democratically unacceptable"? Please.
The bit that's difficult to accept is that the democratic decision was made based on a large amount of provably misleading information from both sides. All that I could be sure of was that leaving would definitely cause some major trouble (as is becoming apparent in Ireland and Scotland) and that both sides had made extremely misleading statements. In addition, despite being fed up with many aspects of the way the EU works, I feel that working together to solve problems is better than working separately, and hoping that we can hide from Europe's problems by cutting ourselves off seems very unrealistic.
 
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  • #40
Jonathan Scott said:
The bit that's difficult to accept is that the democratic decision was made based on a large amount of provably misleading information from both sides.
Certainly misleading information is often present, but how is it know that this particular outcome was *based on* misleading information?

All that I could be sure of was that leaving would definitely cause some major trouble (as is becoming apparent in Ireland and Scotland)
As was remaining likely to cause (more) trouble (e.g. the rise of the BNP, EDL, Left Unity, Class War, ...)

cutting ourselves off seems very unrealistic.
I have no comment on the best method of cooperation, but the UK is hardly cut-off from Europe post exit. The EFTA exists, the EEA and NATO remain, The Chunnel will not be plugged.
 
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  • #41
mheslep said:
Unlikely. Scottish independence went down by 400 thousand votes, knowing at the time the UK might leave the EU.
But hardly believing that UK would. One of the main arguments for the no to Scottish independence was the prospect of staying within the European Union. The SNP was recently reelected on a manifesto of providing a fast possibility of holding a new referendum under drastically changed circumstances - and Brexit certainly would qualify for that. If I was Scottish, I certainly would have voted no to independence in 2014, but yes today.

Jonathan Scott said:
and that both sides had made extremely misleading statements.
I believe this to be one of the great flaws of democracy, in particular of big important referendums. People will tend to believe the truths that seem convenient for them and vote accordingly - greatly benefitting sides that can draw up such "easy" arguments and also implying that many people voting will not have the time nor interest in delving deeper into what are often very complex issues. This is the entire point behind parliamentarism, electing officials to do just that and to take informed decisions. To push the most important issues where many people will vote according to their gut feeling to a referendum is not a brilliant idea from this perspective.
 
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  • #42
Ryan_m_b said:
I'm voting Remain. It's ridiculous to leave, it would be economic suicide.
I'm sure there were people in 1776 who said the same thing about America leaving. It was tough at first, but we made a go of it.
Ryan_m_b said:
Not to mention that the leaders of the Leave campaign are just banging an ideological drum of "Immigration! Sovereignty! Nationalism!"
Points that resonated with a majority of voters. The first two alone would have been enough for me to vote "Leave." With regard to sovreignty, having to abide by onerous rules and regulations from a bunch of unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats in Brussels would convince me to bail at the first opportunity.
 
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  • #43
Nigel Farage has just said that the suggestion painted on the Vote Leave "battle bus" that £350 million a week being paid to the EU could be paid instead to support the national health service was "a mistake": http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36624697

In fact, it had already been established that the amount actually paid to the EU was much less than that, because of a rebate agreement, and this amount doesn't take any account of the amount that the EU pays back to the UK in many different ways (farm subsidies, development, research funding etc.), so the net cost was very much less.
 
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  • #45
Mark44 said:
Points that resonated with a majority of voters. The first two alone would have been enough for me to vote "Leave." With regard to sovreignty, having to abide by onerous rules and regulations from a bunch of unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats in Brussels would convince me to bail at the first opportunity.

Mark44, am I to take it from your quote above that you are opposed to immigration, then?
 
  • #46
So is it true that a good number of Brits did not know what the EU was?
 
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  • #47
Overall I think the outcome for the UK to leave the EU is more bad than good, it will hurt both sides (and will probably hurt the UK more in the long run). Yes it is not the end of the world and I am sure that they will recover, but it feels like they are going much more backwards than forwards. This narrow-mindedness does not last longterm and nor is it capable of solving the actual issues! These issues are not unique to the UK, these are WORLD issues!

That being said, I do see this as a wake up call for the EU and am happy about that. They need to do more and not just idle by, to take action when it is needed. The world needs more cooperation / understanding, to see the bigger picture; how else are we ever going to solve these basic issues that are common to ALL of us in this world?

Anyways I predict that its going to be very tough times for the UK financially, overall worse than what it has been and for at least some years into the future. Scotland and Ireland most likely will leave the UK and join the EU (why not?). The EU might loose another country with another type of referendum vote (Holland for example), but that depends on the results of what the UK actually becomes within the next few months. Maybe we get Donald Trump and Boris Johnson as new world powers too, that will at least shake things up in the world (and hopefully we get something new / greater; that is, from the pieces left behind after their reign).

Lastly I agree with previous posts about the flaws of democracy, though it still seems like the best system currently out there. Though the masses will inevitably / instinctively know what the right thing to do is after they feel the hurt. I don't think the lesson will be nearly as severe as it was during WWII for example, but history seems still to repeat itself in some way or another. Maybe that is just the growing pains of civilizations, but we have yet to become that civilization that can put aside our petty differences and tackle the bigger concerns outside our small little Earth :PPS, I am Norwegian and this Brexit is nothing like being like Norway. Not only were we lucky with a lot of oil, but spent DECADES investing that wealth into the future of our country. It is not something the UK can replicate that quickly, especially now after opting out of the EU! Yes Norway is in the EEA / EFTA, but one of its policies is the "Free Movement of Persons" to be able to join (see link below). Now wasn't one of the main points of Brexit for the UK to have control of its borders? Thus renders this option also a complete impossibility! So please don't compare it to Norway, we are now more connected to the EU than the UK now ever will be!

http://www.efta.int/eea/policy-areas/persons/persons
 
  • #48
StatGuy2000 said:
Mark44, am I to take it from your quote above that you are opposed to immigration, then?
I didn't say that, and you shouldn't infer it. Relative to my own country, the US, I am opposed to illegal immigration. Regarding immigration to Europe and the UK, if I were to have a vote, I would be against immigration in numbers too large to be assimilated into the particular country. With the massive influx of emigres lately, several of the countries, among them Hungary and, as I recall, Slovakia, are rethinking the idea of open borders.
 
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  • #49
The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it. Really? http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-british-are-frantically-googling-what-the-eu-is-hours-after-voting-to-leave-it/ar-AAhAdn5?li=BBnbcA1

This may be one reason why the founding fathers of the USA decided on a democratic republic (representiave democracy) rather than a pure democracy, truly understanding the situation that they are voting on..
 
  • #50
Orodruin said:
But hardly believing that UK would. One of the main arguments for the no to Scottish independence was the prospect of staying within the European Union...
I had forgotten about that possibility, that the EU would keep out an independent Scotland. Good point.
 
  • #51
Jonathan Scott said:
.. and even though the amount was actually much less than that, surveys showed that nearly half of Britons believed it:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-million-a-week-to-the-eu-claim-a7085016.html

So given that the margin of victory was only a few percent, it looks as if that particular lie may well have contributed significantly to the result.
The amount actually sent to the EU by the UK government, taken out of the hands of the UK Parliament, appears to be 250 million per week (13 billion a year). Do you think that figure would have been found modest by woud be Leave voters? Also, the Leave campaign mentions "costs" where I look, not government spending per se, so they may be referring to other monies leaving Britain due to the EU, possibly fines, licensing on business.

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/
 
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  • #52
Before anything else happens the UK needs a new prime minister.
Cameron has resigned, and presumably will be replaced by a pro-leaving person who will then invoke EU article 50.
That person will be decided by the Tory party, since they are defacto the governing party in the UK since the last general election.
All the possible candidates seem horrifying to me, (even though Cameron is a bit of a dipstick, imo)

However you analyse it, the populace of the UK have voted for a sharp right turn,and personally I think it could get ugly and am glad I no longer live there.
 
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  • #53
Mark44 said:
With regard to sovreignty, having to abide by onerous rules and regulations from a bunch of unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats in Brussels would convince me to bail at the first opportunity.
The thing that they did not tell the voters is that Brittish companies will have to abide by the regulations anyway if they want to trade with the EU.
mister mishka said:
Lastly I agree with previous posts about the flaws of democracy, though it still seems like the best system currently out there.
Yes, do not get me wrong. I think it is far superior to any other form of government mankind has tried. (Take monarchy for example, if being at the mercy of the majority is bad, being at the mercy of a single person that might be excruciatingly unfit to rule would be worse.) I am just saying it has some gaping flaws.
 
  • #54
mheslep said:
The amount actually sent to the EU by the UK government, taken out of the hands of the UK Parliament, appears to be 250 million per week (13 billion a year). Do you think that figure would have been found modest by woud be Leave voters? Also, the Leave campaign mentions "costs" where I look, not government spending per se, so they may be referring to other monies leaving Britain due to the EU, possibly fines, licensing on business.

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

The advertisements made it seem that the net cost of being a member of the EU was £350 million a week which could have been spent on the NHS instead. As stated on the quoted fact-checking site, that was ignoring the rebate, and also ignored all EU payments back to the UK, so it wasn't really the actual cost. In addition to those payments, there are services provided by the EU which the UK would otherwise have to provide itself, but it's difficult to estimate those. However, it's not the specific amount which is the biggest lie; it's the suggestion that if we left the EU that amount of additional money could be spent on the NHS, which is ludicrous.
 
  • #55
Orodruin said:
The thing that they did not tell the voters is that Brittish companies will have to abide by the regulations anyway if they want to trade with the EU.

Why? Surely China, for example, trades with the EU, and nobody suggests Chinese working conditions are as good as those in the EU.
 
  • #56
Vanadium 50 said:
Why? Surely China, for example, trades with the EU, and nobody suggests Chinese working conditions are as good as those in the EU.
Not talking about working regulations. One Leave commercial featured product regulations for pillows. If Britain wants to export pillows to the EU, they will still have to abide by those regulations. (Also, many of the regulations quoted in reality had nothing to do with pillows, butt simply regulations containing the word "pillow")
 
  • #57
Maybe not the working conditions, but things like the safety standards and specifications, trades descriptions, etc.
 
  • #58
Re the various comments about democracy. British democracy, like American, is representative not direct. A national referendum has practically no tradition in Britain. It ought to be a kind of nuclear option. Invoked only for something like an important constitutional question.

Only one out of three national referendums that there have ever been in Britain have been on such a question (that was on a proposed reform of the electoral system, which failed). And likewise a referendum has been promised in the eventuality of any major session of British sovereignty to the EU, such as joining the euro.

Instead this referendum was as I mentioned earlier a piece of manoeuvring over an obscure internal Conservative Party question, admittedly concerning the EU, specifically to placate a faction generally referred to as the "swivel eyed loons" performed by a man whose only previous career was in PR and who seems to view politics and democracy as engineering and management of consensus.

To have possibly undermined and set in train the collapse of the major force for peace and progress that is the EU, and brought about the breakup of his own country would have taken villains like Hitler a lifetime; this inoffensive if somewhat shallow and insincere man, has achieved it in a year. Okay hopefully it will not come to that, but these things are on the cards and being generally commented.
 
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  • #59
sunrah said:
I guess the question is moot, being that most things in politics are good for some and bad for others. Anyway, I'm still undecided. What do you think? And if you're not voting, why not?

I didn't vote because i live in US.

Did this popular sentiment affect the Brexit vote ? It's sure affecting the US election .
Nobody is placing the blame on the refugees for wanting a better life. The blame goes to the EU leadership for failing to engage the citizens in any discussion of accepting refugees, how many, and from where. They decided for all the little people that they WOULD take millions of refugees and said little people could just lump it. That is not the job of any government. The job of the government, first, foremost, and always is the protection of its citizens, not the protection of some other country's citizens. And therein lies the problem with most of the West's governments. They all think they are better and smarter than their citizens. They need to know their place and Britain has just given them a clue as to where that is.
As a "True Believer" in keeping government small, i would have voted to exit.
[George] Washington believed that with regard to foreign nations, it's best to trade freely and "have with them as little political connection as possible. So far as we have already formed engagements, let them be fulfilled with perfect good faith. Here let us stop."
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/10/george-washington-isolationist/246453/

"Good Fences Make Good Neighbors" .

If Brexit starts a trend that changes foreign relations playing field from a dominance themed "Grand Chessboard"
to a mutual-self-improvement themed "Smorgasboard"
where everybody exchanges what they produce
which is what little folks want

it'll turn out good.

old jim
 
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  • #61
rootone said:
However you analyse it, the populace of the UK have voted for a sharp right turn,and personally I think it could get ugly and am glad I no longer live there.

How is the outcome sharply "right"? Would the referendum make things "ugly", vs the outcome of no referendum?
 
  • #62
Jonathan Scott said:
The advertisements made it seem that the net cost of being a member of the EU was £350 million a week which could have been spent on the NHS instead. As stated on the quoted fact-checking site, that was ignoring the rebate, and also ignored all EU payments back to the UK, so it wasn't really the actual cost. In addition to those payments, there are services provided by the EU which the UK would otherwise have to provide itself, but it's difficult to estimate those. However, it's not the specific amount which is the biggest lie; it's the suggestion that if we left the EU that amount of additional money could be spent on the NHS, which is ludicrous.

With respect to the general point that the UK Parliament might have spent the money elsewhere, the payments back to UK don't matter - they go to where the EU wants them spent, none of it goes to the NHS. Where is the advertisement by Leave that said *all* of the UK'S EU money would go to NHS. I've not found it; if so I agree that's propaganda.
 
  • #63
mheslep said:
With respect to the general point that the UK Parliament might have spent the money elsewhere, the payments back to UK don't matter - they go to where the EU wants them spent, none of it goes to the NHS. Where is the advertisement by Leave that said *all* of the UK'S EU money would go to NHS. I've not found it; if so I agree that's propaganda.
They didn't say it directly, but they implied it in a way which many people consider extremely misleading.
For example, see images of the Vote Leave battle bus, e.g. http://media.gettyimages.com/photos...-reidsteel-a-christchurch-picture-id530956310
The writing on the side says:
Vote Leave said:
We send the EU £350 million a week
Let's fund our NHS instead - Vote Leave
Alternatively, see their web page at http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_cost which includes the following two points in sequence:
Vote Leave said:
FACT
The EU now costs the UK over £350 million each week - nearly £20 billion a year
FACT
Our EU contributions are enough to build a new, fully-staffed NHS hospital every week
 
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  • #64
There's a BBC news article which goes into some reasons why they think Leave won. It specifically mentions the £350 million NHS claim: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36574526
It also seems that there was a strong back-reaction to all the forecasts by the Remain side of the doom and gloom that Brexit would cause, which seemed too overblown (and definitely included some serious exaggeration).

This referendum seems to have been a big mistake. It's true that the EU has been having problems recently, and many including myself feel something needs to be done about it. Perhaps Cameron thought that scheduling a referendum would put pressure on the EU to fix some things. However, the public called Cameron's bluff and it all blew up.

All the speculation about whether the average UK citizen would be better off was mostly irrelevant to me. The world needs all the unity it can get, and this referendum is creating disunity not only at the European level but also within every community in the UK, over issues which were extremely unclear from the beginning.
 
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  • #65
mheslep said:
How is the outcome sharply "right"? Would the referendum make things "ugly", vs the outcome of no referendum?
The referendum in itself is not ugly, what worries me is that the argument seems to have been won on the basis of stirring up racist sentiment, more general xenophobia, and the notion that this will somehow restore the UK to the position of being a global economic power ruling over an empire full of readily exploitable resources.
I didn't vote personally though I could have made a postal vote. IMO the remain campaign was weakly managed, and both sides based their arguments almost entirely on fears and negatives.
 
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  • #66
mheslep said:
How is the outcome sharply "right"? Would the referendum make things "ugly", vs the outcome of no referendum?
rootone said:
The referendum in itself is not ugly, what worries me is that the argument seems to have been won on the basis of stirring up racist sentiment, more general xenophobia, and the notion that this will somehow restore the UK to the position of being a global economic power ruling over an empire full of readily exploitable resources.
I wouldn't necessarily classify the stereotypical (which I mention so that it's clear that I don't think everyone can be described as this) leave-voter as right wing. If you look at the extreme right, Eurosceptic parties in Europe, they are right in 1 aspect only; immigration. For all other categories, they would register left to nearly extreme left. Look at the economic programs -as far as they have any serious plans- of these parties; UKIP in the UK, FN in France, VB in Belgium, PVV in the Netherlands. They would be branded as communists by some of the less nuanced people in the US.
This can be seen in the suggestion that the £350m could be used to fund the NHS, not really a right wing statement.

They are difficult to classify in a simple left-right division, since their opinions are sometimes all over the place to fit with what the people want to hear. (This is not necessarily bad of course. I'm always more suspicious of people who identify with a specific party. I don't think all problems are best solved by adhering to one particular strategy, be it conservative, progressive or something else. But that's another discussion.)

I can only offer anecdotal stories of my uncle during the dreaded family dinner discussions. While not living in the UK, my uncle (and most of that branch of the family) would be susceptible to Eurosceptic arguments. And what I can extract from his statements is a quite self-centered worldview filled with negativity bias. He votes for parties on the right because the left has given too much handouts to people. 5 minutes later he is complaining about the current center-right government, because they have cut spending on one of the social programs he benefitted from... He was a hard working person, so he doesn't see those benefits as handouts. But when his neighbour receives state support, it's unfair because why should he be paying for his neighbour's undeserved luxury. Add immigration, unemployment, austerity, corrupt and selfish politicians (forget the story 5 minutes earlier when he himself evaded taxes and sort of defrauded the insurance company, that's not corruption or selfishness on his part of course, not at all) and you get a very negative worldview where other people are benefitting at your cost and all that could be changed when the (unselfish) working classes take back control.
I think I'm reasonable when I say my uncle is an uneducated selfish idiot with very little self-knowledge, but I wouldn't dare to put all leave-voters in this pigeon hole, although I do think people like this are more attracted to the leave camp. And they tend to be more vocal than more moderate voters so you can easily get a certain impression when looking at internet forums or interviews.

There are idiots on both sides that haven't got a clue what the implications of their vote are. I would say 99% of people have no idea of the exact economical implications (economists themselves are providing contradictory estimates), which is why I'm not exactly a fan of referenda on complex matters as these. But you easily sound condescending when you try to argue this, although I must admit I probably am condescending from time to time and definitely biased against uncles :)

I share the opinion with others in this topic that the campaign on both sides was quite poorly executed. Everyone knows that fearmongering doom scenarios are counter effective, so why even bother? While reading some articles with statements from Cameron during the weeks before the referendum, I almost had to conclude he had to be a mole :)

Well, there is at least one thing I'm glad for, and that is that conspiracy theorist have less material now. A week before the referendum, the local lower class newspaper comment section was filled with comments about how the corrupt EU would never allow the UK to leave and the voting would surely be manipulated.
At least we won't have to read all that now.
 
  • #67
[QUOTE="rootone, post: 5506613, member: ] what worries me is that the argument seems to have been won on the basis of stirring up racist sentiment, more general xenophobia,[/quote]
Before Brexit, EU immigration law required, for example, that a non-English speaking Bulgarian convict with no means be allowed permanent entry while, say, an American or Australian musician in London is told to get out because he made less than the required $52K, the limit placed on non Europeans. This is done because immigration numbers are so high (net 300 thousand per year) and beyond British control, that immigration from anywhere else must be being squashed to maintain a reasonable flow (Cameron wants 100K per yr).

It is not xenophobic to recognize that some repair is required to the policy.

and the notion that this will somehow restore the UK to the position of being a global economic power ruling over an empire full of readily exploitable resources...
Restore an empire of readily exploitable resources? Do you have a basis or reference?
 
  • #68
ZVdP said:
I wouldn't necessarily classify the stereotypical (which I mention so that it's clear that I don't think everyone can be described as this) leave-voter as right wing. If you look at the extreme right, Eurosceptic parties in Europe, they are right in 1 aspect only; immigration. For all other categories, they would register left to nearly extreme left. Look at the economic programs -as far as they have any serious plans- of these parties; UKIP in the UK, FN in France, VB in Belgium, PVV in the Netherlands. They would be branded as communists by some of the less nuanced people in the US.
This can be seen in the suggestion that the £350m could be used to fund the NHS, not really a right wing statement.

I would love some evidence as to how Belgium's VB can be seen as communists.
 
  • #69
micromass said:
I would love some evidence as to how Belgium's VB can be seen as communists.
I was a hyperbole of course (referencing how some call Obama a communist), but if you focus on their economic and social programs (which typically isn't much I have to admit) it's quite socialistic, because that's what their voters like to hear; more government spending on them (less on their neighbour).
 
  • #70
ZVdP said:
if you focus on their economic and social programs (which typically isn't much I have to admit) it's quite socialistic

Proof please.
 

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