A math problem related to betting

  • Thread starter the_man
  • Start date
In summary, the conversation is about finding a way to adjust the stake in bets to account for the bookmaker's 7% commission on profits. The person is asking if there is a way to still make a net profit of $20 when betting $10 at 3:1 odds. The solution proposed involves adjusting the stake to $10.75 and using the equation WIN + LOSS = $10 to achieve a net profit of $20 while still accounting for the commission.
  • #1
the_man
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I just want to say this is nothing illegal because I've used the word "Betting". The thing is that I have a math problem and I need someone to help me find the best solution. I don't know if this is the right place to post it. If not, please don't delete it, just moved it. Thanks.

Homework Statement


[/B]
So for those who are not familiar with betting here is an example:

STAKE x ODDS = PAYOUT ---- 10*3 = 30
PROFIT = PAYOUT - STAKE ---- PROFIT = 30-10 -> +20

But the problem is that my bookmaker takes 7% commission on PROFIT. What I want is to adjust my numbers so that my winnings/profits/stats are like they would be if there is no commision? In the previous example my profit was +20, when bookie takes 7%, I am left with +18,6. But I don't want that, I want my profit to be +20, so that's why I made little formula to adjust my STAKE, so that my profit is +20 after the 7% commission. You find the formula on the picture bottom-right corner or under "Relevant equations".

Example 1
But let's forget about my STAKE Adjusting Formula for a second and let me show you an example.
If I bet: 10 * 3 = +20 and I LOSE, my Overall Balance is -10
and I bet again 10 * 3 = +20 and I WIN, bookie takes 7% and I have a profit of +18,6 which I add to my Overall Balance and I get +8,6.

Example 2
Now let's do the same thing but with my Adjusted Stake which instead of 10 is now 10,75. That number allows me to win an original profit of in our example +20 after commision instead of +18,6 when stake is =10. So let's do this:
If I bet 10,75 * 3 = +21,5 and I LOSE, my Overall Balance is -10,75
and I bet again 10,75 * 3 = +21,5, and I WIN, bookie takes 7% and I have a profit of +20, which I add to my Overall Balance and I get +9,25.

Example 3
Now you see the problem. The right thing if there is no commission would look like this and this is what I want to accomplish.
If I bet: 10 * 3 = +20 and I LOSE, my Overall Balance is -10
and I bet again 10 * 3 = +20 and I WIN, there is no commission because its a perfect world we live in, and I have a profit of +20which I add to my Overall Balance and I get +10.

Now is there any way that I can accomplish the same numbers as shown in Example 3 with commission included. The thing to remember is that bookie only takes 7% on winning bets when I make profit. I am calculating my profit and do my stast at the end of the month. I have around 180 bets a month with the winning rate of 38%-45%. Maybe I can somehow return it on a long term.

Homework Equations



A) STAKE = PROFIT / (1 - 7/100) * (ODDS -1)

3. Picture attached

HERE
 
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  • #2
It looks like you are asking if it is possible to risk $10 at 3:1 odds and receive a net $20 in winnings after the bookie gets his share.
To that, I would say no.
If you are asking if there is a way for WIN + LOSS = $10, then probably.
WIN + LOSS = $10
WIN = (BET*3)(1-.07)-BET
LOSS = BET
WIN = (3 LOSS)(.93)-LOSS
WIN = 1.79 LOSS
Plug this back into the original WIN + LOSS = 10 and there you have it.
 

Related to A math problem related to betting

1. What is probability and how does it relate to betting?

Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring. In betting, probability is used to determine the chances of a particular outcome happening in a game or event. It is often expressed as a fraction or percentage.

2. How do odds work in betting?

Odds in betting represent the probability of a certain outcome happening. They are typically displayed as either fractional (e.g. 2/1) or decimal (e.g. 3.00) and indicate the potential payout for a winning bet. Higher odds indicate a lower probability of the outcome occurring.

3. What is the difference between a point spread and a moneyline bet?

A point spread bet involves placing a wager on a team to win by a certain margin, while a moneyline bet is simply betting on which team will win the game. Point spreads are commonly used in sports like football and basketball, while moneyline bets are more popular in sports like baseball and hockey.

4. How do bookmakers make money?

Bookmakers make money by setting odds that slightly favor the house. This means that even if a bettor wins, the bookmaker will still make a profit. They also adjust the odds based on the betting patterns of bettors in order to balance their books and reduce their risk.

5. Can math be used to improve betting success?

Yes, math can be used to improve betting success. By understanding probability, odds, and other mathematical concepts such as expected value, bettors can make more informed decisions and increase their chances of winning. However, luck and other factors also play a role in betting outcomes.

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