Tech: Everything Old Is New Again

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"We may be at this point in tech, where supposedly revolutionary products are becoming eerily similar to the previous offerings they were supposed to beat."
https://www.businessinsider.com/tec...-cloud-computing-2023-8?utm_source=reddit.com

This article laments the fact that rideshare services, streaming and cloud services prices are going up, eliminating their upside. This was inevitable, as the companies/services were previously unprofitable or unreasonably below the market, and everyone knew it. The business model is a half-twist on the old early 20th century monopolies: enter a new marked by undercutting the market prices, grow market share, then raise the prices. Except instead of starting off as monopolies, startups start with billions in venture capital and a decade grace period before investors wanted to see a profit.

My girlfriend (database administrator) keeps saying that technology has become cyclical and the cloud is the new mainframe. Data reliability might be somewhat better with cloud computing, but that's not why people are switching to it; it's all about cost.

Netflix was the only game in town for a shockingly long time, but it was inevitable that other streaming services would join the party, and the pandemic cemented that. RIP my Netflix DVD service. I'd hoped the spinoff a few years ago would keep it going, but nope, they just spun it off so they could later kill it. Still....maybe it'll come back? Either way, the fight for viewership is far from over, but the playing field is leveling-off between streaming and cable. I never cancelled my cable anyway....though I'm worried about where football is going.

Uber is the worst, as we've discussed here previously. The business model was never viable. It always relied on predation to grow market share: Enter a new market, break a few laws, but as long as you have a billion dollars worth of lawyers and several billion in loss tolerance you can negotiate and stall your way out of that. And now Uber drivers are starting to realize they are just underpaid non-unionized taxi drivers.

Tesla, too. They've awoken the sleeping giants.

Tech companies have always been given loss grace and absurdly optimistic valuation, at least for the last 40 years since the computer/internet revolution started. But my perception is that much of the earlier tech boom was in truly new technology/services. Recently it seems like they are making incremental improvements on existing products/services but still being treated as if they are revolutionary. I'd like to think there's an end to the madness coming, but venture capitalists seem pretty insatiable, and they are the ones who make Ubers possible. But moving forward we'll just have to see how many Ubers there are left amongst the Juiceros.
 
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A business saying: "Once you get the fish in the boat, stop feeding it bait."
 
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russ_watters said:
...technology has become cyclical...
People are cyclic. It's far less troublesome to find new people than new ideas.

Also, rule of marketing: if it can be sold as revolutionary, then it is revolutionary :wink:

BTW it's eerily similar with the financial part too. The good old unregulated madness is now sold as revolutionary - and people buying it like there is no tomorrow.
 
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I've seen this in gaming tech. We started with simple games on microcomputers which evolved to web games which evolved to phone games. Each of these games resembled the simple ones of the past until the tech got faster and they could evolve.

In computing we started with dumb terminals which evolved to smart terminals then back to dumb terminals with faster networks then back to laptops with faster networks.
 
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russ_watters said:
I'd like to think there's an end to the madness coming, but venture capitalists seem pretty insatiable
As long as you will overwork - making more money than you need today - and give it to either an investment fund with "get higher returns" as your only requirement or, worst, pay overprice for everything you buy such that only a few [now rich] people will do it for you and keep the profits, this system will go on.

Reducing our workload is the only solution to pretty much every problem modern society has, including environmental issues and social inequalities. Pretty easy to do also: just don't do it.

Everybody is talking about consuming more efficiently, but consuming less is impossible if you don't work less because someone has to consume now everything you're working for now. This is where it all begins.
 
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FactChecker said:
Once you get the fish in the boat, stop feeding it bait.
But there's also "I want my sheep shorn - not slaughtered."
 
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Vanadium 50 said:
"I want my sheep shorn - not slaughtered."
[rant]
But as long as the implementor is not the original owner, they will logically go with the higher, quicker, profit option.

Why should they care? As P. T. Barnum said, "There's a sucker born every minute."

Just look at the lines at the local specialty coffee stand; USD $2.95 to $4.75 per cup. My wife makes a pot a day that costs about $0.35 per cup.
[end rant]

Cheers,
Tom
 
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Clearly you married well.
 
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The current infatuation with 'AI' strikes (only?) me as another example of a faux revolution. I'm trying to figure out if I'm too familiar with machine learning, too dumb to understand, or just read too much Asimov as a kid (I expect more). What changed? From where I sit, machine learning is a decent solution for some well-defined problems. As a solution to more general problems (self-driving, for example), it is more like fusion - always 20 years in the future. ChatGPT (and ilk) are amusing, but ultimately not as revolutionary as the ball-point pen. I watch Nvidia stock soar and understand that the current hardware demand is real - I'm just trying to figure out what the end-users are going to do with all of that 'AI.' Just in case I'm wrong: I mean no disrespect to my future AI overlords.
 
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Tom.G said:
As P. T. Barnum said, "There's a sucker born every minute."
Or, to quote William Claud Dukenfield (AKA W. C. Fields), "Never give a sucker an even break, and never smarten up a chump."
 

1. What does the phrase "Everything Old Is New Again" mean in terms of technology?

The phrase "Everything Old Is New Again" refers to the concept of technologies repeating or reinventing themselves over time. This can include reviving old technologies, adapting them to modern use, or creating new technologies inspired by older ones.

2. How does the cycle of "Everything Old Is New Again" affect the advancement of technology?

The cycle of "Everything Old Is New Again" can lead to a constant recycling of ideas and concepts in technology, which can both hinder and facilitate advancement. On one hand, revisiting old ideas can slow down progress, but on the other hand, it can also lead to new innovations and improvements.

3. Can you give an example of an old technology that has been revived or reinvented in modern times?

A good example of an old technology that has been revived is vinyl records. While they were replaced by newer formats like CDs and digital music, vinyl records have recently seen a resurgence in popularity, with many artists releasing their music on vinyl again.

4. How can the concept of "Everything Old Is New Again" benefit society?

The concept of "Everything Old Is New Again" can benefit society by providing a sense of familiarity and nostalgia, while also introducing new and improved versions of old technologies. This can help bridge generational gaps and make technology more accessible to a wider range of people.

5. Are there any downsides to the cycle of "Everything Old Is New Again" in technology?

One potential downside of the cycle of "Everything Old Is New Again" is that it can lead to a saturation of similar technologies and a lack of true innovation. This can also make it difficult for newer, more original technologies to gain traction and compete in the market.

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