What Is the Expected Voter Turnout Amid Threats in Iraq's Election?

[vanesch]

What's your guess ? What will be the participation rate in the voting in Iraq ?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

But only 26,000 of the estimated 240,000 Iraqi Americans have registered to vote in the parliamentary elections. The election takes place Sunday in Iraq, but expatriates in California can start voting today.[continued]

http://www.sacbee.com/24hour/special_reports/iraq/bee/story/12162539p-13032717c.html

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It would be wonderful if they pulled this off and made some kind of point, but I'm afraid this will be just another in a long line of disasters at the expense of innocent people. The Bush team never let's me down, unfortunately.

 

[polyb]

>25%.

This whole thing stinks!

Worse than that will be how Jr. will run around and take credit for 'spreading democracy'!

Who's ready to invade Iran?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Arabs say Iraq vote gives democracy a bad name

CAIRO (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush sees Sunday's election in Iraq as a beacon for freedom in the Middle East, but Arab reformers say the poll will set back their cause.

Arab human rights activists say the Iraqi election is deeply flawed and will give democracy a bad name. They say violence and the prospect of a Sunni Arab boycott will undermine the poll. Many Arabs, already suspicious of U.S. intentions in Iraq, are also dismissing the vote's credibility because of the presence of the 150,000 U.S. troops there.

"The influence of the elections for us as democrats is disastrous," Syrian human rights activist Haytham Manna told Reuters from Paris. "When you marginalise wide sections of society from the political process ... this is not democracy." [continued]

http://www.reuters.co.in/locales/c_newsArticle.jsp?type=worldNews&localeKey=en_IN&storyID=7468079

 

[polyb]

Why am I not surprised by the article Ivan?


I bet the run for Iran will be a lot like Iraq but half hearted and a lot of 'yadda, yadda, yadda, all right, let's invade! Guuhhoo Umerhica!'. The worse part is it will be worse plus a strong possibility of drawing other international players openly into the opposition of such actions. Canada or any other country may look like a great destination within a year or so. I just hope I'm wrong about that!

 

[kat]

>25%.

This whole thing stinks!

This is one of the highest rates of voting by a dispora...ever. Not sure what your beef is.

 

[plover]

Poll results from Iraq. (Zogby via Juan Cole)

Sunni Arabs who say they will vote on Sunday: 9%
Sunni Arabs who say they definitely will not vote on Sunday: 76%
Shiites who say they likely or definitely will vote: 80%
Kurds who say they likely or definitely will vote: 56%

(More results at the link)

Dahr Jamail's reports from Baghdad: http://dahrjamailiraq.com/weblog/archives/dispatches/000186.php

With the “elections” just three days away, people are terrified. Families are fleeing Baghdad much as they did prior to the invasion of the country. Seeking refuge from what everyone fears to be a massive onslaught of violence in the capital city, huge lines of cars are stacked up at checkpoints on the outer edges of the city.

Policemen and Iraqi soldiers are trying to convince people to stay in the city and vote.

Nobody is listening to them.

Whereas Baghdad is filled with Fallujah refugees, now villages and smaller cities on the outskirts of Baghdad are filling up with election refugees.

Yet these places aren’t safe either. In Baquba attacks on polling stations are a near daily occurrence. Mortar attacks are common on polling stations even as far south as Basra. A truck bomb struck a Kurdish political party headquarters in a small town near Mosul, killing 15 people, wounding twice that many. A string of car bombs detonated at polling stations in Kirkuk, which was already under an 8pm-5am curfew, killing 10 Iraqis.

Here in Baghdad, although the High Commission for Elections in Iraq has yet to announce their locations, schools which are being converted into polling stations are already being attacked.

Going through the IP checkpoint at the hotel, one of the guards says, “I don’t think much will happen this weekend. I think it’s just a bunch of lies. Nothing will happen.”

After watching his colleague speak, the other guard who is looking under our hood replies, “We’re closing this checkpoint at 5pm today, so no more cars in or out of here. The coming days will be the worst we’ve ever seen. Attacks will spread across all of Baghdad.”

...nobody knows for sure what will happen here. Baghdad is on pins and needles. Gunfire cracks in the distance as I finish this. Two distant explosions [car bombs] rattled the hotel earlier this evening.

The curfews have been extended and all the security measures are now in place.

And, as usual, nobody knows what will happen next in occupied Iraq.

 

[arildno]

Approx. 40%

 

[Stanley_Smith]

Look like the majority of forum either go for 0-25% or 50-75%. Let's see if we are correct; this kind of polling reminds me of the US presidential election not too long ago

 

[wasteofo2]

I think less than 25% is kinda naive, the Shiites are about 60% of the Iraqi population, and they've been opressed for like a hundred years. There's no way they're not going to want to get out and make sure as many of their favorite people as possible are in the government.

 

[Gokul43201]

I picked 25 - 50%.

 

[PerennialII]

33% ... the distribution is starting to look bad if the polling is to believed.

 

[Gokul43201]

33% ... the distribution is starting to look bad if the polling is to believed.

Yeah ! The large fraction of the Sunnis not going to the polls looks like trouble to me !

 

[wasteofo2]

I just saw on CNN that abour 14 million Iraqi's are registered to vote. Iraq's population is 26 million. So I'm guessing that voting 50-75% was a bit naive of me too, looks like it's going to be 25-50.

God, I can't believe myself, I actually picked up some of the Bush administrations optimism about the turnout, those damned right-wing pundits assuring all the "pessimistic liberals" that the turnout would be comprable to, maybe even greater than the Palestinian elections. Gotta remember that nothing they say is ever true...

 

[kat]

I just saw on CNN that abour 14 million Iraqi's are registered to vote. Iraq's population is 26 million. So I'm guessing that voting 50-75% was a bit naive of me too, looks like it's going to be 25-50.

God, I can't believe myself, I actually picked up some of the Bush administrations optimism about the turnout, those damned right-wing pundits assuring all the "pessimistic liberals" that the turnout would be comprable to, maybe even greater than the Palestinian elections. Gotta remember that nothing they say is ever true...

erm, I think your numbers are a little off...
I think Iraq population is about 26 million but only a little more then 14 million are of the age to vote...could be wrong..but you might want to check that again.

 

[Integral]

Where's the 125% (made by <50% of the population) option?

 

[PerennialII]

Yeah ! The large fraction of the Sunnis not going to the polls looks like trouble to me !

connecting the dots isn't that much of an exertion. Uneven turnout isn't helping, and if (or more like apparently when) the elections fail to turn the tide what then.

 

[Smurf]

about 40% will try, about 35% will make it.
and that's the up-side, i'd sooner say much lower than any higher.

 

[plover]

Christopher Allbritton's been posting hourly (or so) http://www.back-to-iraq.com/archives/000858.php from Baghdad.

 

[russ_watters]

I just saw on CNN that abour 14 million Iraqi's are registered to vote. Iraq's population is 26 million. So I'm guessing that voting 50-75% was a bit naive of me too, looks like it's going to be 25-50.

God, I can't believe myself, I actually picked up some of the Bush administrations optimism about the turnout, those damned right-wing pundits assuring all the "pessimistic liberals" that the turnout would be comprable to, maybe even greater than the Palestinian elections. Gotta remember that nothing they say is ever true...

wasteofo2, not all of those 26 million are eligible - many are kids.

 

[wasteofo2]

wasteofo2, not all of those 26 million are eligible - many are kids.

Yeah, I wasn't exactly thinking when I posted that...

Earlier this morning on Fox News, they were all going under the estimate of about 72%, then I saw Brian Williams on Meet The Press saying that participation ranged from 72% down to 4%, depending on where you were, and that we'd have to wait over a week to get some real concrete numbers. But hey, maybe the Administration's optimism was right for once and more than 50% of the population voted...

 

[Gokul43201]

After closing of polls : I just heard the total number that voted in Iraq is about 8 million. Looks pretty close to 50% but I'm just guessing here. Anyone know the size of the electorate ?

 

[wasteofo2]

That 14 million figure is actually the amount of eligible voters in Iraq, not the amount of people registered. CNN's little bottom of the screen text lied to me apparently.

 

[member 5645]

After closing of polls : I just heard the total number that voted in Iraq is about 8 million. Looks pretty close to 50% but I'm just guessing here. Anyone know the size of the electorate ?

No idea, but before anyway tries to call these elections a sham, I'd look at the percent that voted for Abbas in Palestine...and the world recognized him as legit

 

[vanesch]

I think less than 25% is kinda naive, the Shiites are about 60% of the Iraqi population, and they've been opressed for like a hundred years. There's no way they're not going to want to get out and make sure as many of their favorite people as possible are in the government.

Well, apparently, this view was correct !

And I was wrong, these elections seem to have been taken much more seriously by the Iraqis than I ever imagined ; at least by the majority ethnic group.

 

[kat]

That 14 million figure is actually the amount of eligible voters in Iraq, not the amount of people registered. CNN's little bottom of the screen text lied to me apparently.

I'm not sure this is correct either... I believe that if this is the number that the main stream media is parroting that what they are actually doing is taking the over 15 population..which is just short of 15 million. However, voting age is 18 and over...

A great day for democracy..nonetheless.

 

[russ_watters]

No idea, but before anyway tries to call these elections a sham, I'd look at the percent that voted for Abbas in Palestine...and the world recognized him as legit

I hadn't realized: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60583-2005Jan9.html

Overall, the election was marked by far fewer problems than many Palestinian organizations had predicted, although voter turnout was so low at midafternoon that the Palestinian election commission extended balloting by two hours. An hour before polls closed, Hanna Nasir, chairman of the commission, told reporters in Ramallah that 43 percent of the 1.9 million eligible voters had turned out. In scattered municipal elections last month in the West Bank, voter turnout was about 81 percent.

Disappointing.

...the number that the main stream media is parroting...

That's really annoying, but its the mainstream media doing what they do. Its like whisper down the lane, and by the end the things they say have little meaning. But they so badly want the early story, they don't care if its accurate or not.

 

[selfAdjoint]

After closing of polls : I just heard the total number that voted in Iraq is about 8 million. Looks pretty close to 50% but I'm just guessing here. Anyone know the size of the electorate ?

I have read that Arab Sunnis are about 20% of the population, the rest being nearly all Kurdish Sunnis and Shiites. So if 20% of the Arab Sunnis voted and 60% of the others did, that would be .6*.8 + .2*.2 = .48 +.04 = .52

 

[vanesch]

I'm not sure this is correct either... I believe that if this is the number that the main stream media is parroting that what they are actually doing is taking the over 15 population..which is just short of 15 million. However, voting age is 18 and over...

Just a minute... On 26 million, 15 million is over 15 years old ?
So you have 11 million kids of less than 15 years, and 15 million "elders" older than 15 years ?? What's the average age in Iraq ?

 

[cronxeh]

From CIA world factbook on Iraq:

Population:
25,374,691 (July 2004 est.)

Age structure:
0-14 years: 40.3% (male 5,198,966; female 5,039,173)
15-64 years: 56.7% (male 7,280,167; female 7,094,688)
65 years and over: 3% (male 357,651; female 404,046) (2004 est.)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Well, the election was much less bloody than I expected. I am thrilled about that fact. My expectations in the long term haven't really changed but this did go very well all things considered. We will see if it really means anything down the road. I doubt it. But I must admit, there is momentum and that's tremendously important if this is too have any chance of working.

Why were there virtually no attacks? My thinking is that this would serve to alienate the Iraqi people. In the end the insurgents want to kill and promote hatred of Americans. This is not well served with a civilian blood bath.

 

[member 5645]

Why were there virtually no attacks? My thinking is that this would serve to alienate the Iraqi people. In the end the insurgents want to kill and promote hatred of Americans. This is not well served with a civilian blood bath.

Ummmm, it's a little too late for that, don't you think?

 

[russ_watters]

Why were there virtually no attacks?

A big reason for that was the fact that virtually no cars were allowed on the road. Tough to drive your car-bomb to a school covertly if you're the only car on the road.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

RPGs don't require cars. As for being too late, I'm sure that depends on who you ask. We have killed far more civililians than the insurgents have.