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I caught the tail end of a news item, something about 25% of New York (city? state?) residents being obese (presumably including whatever is more than obese)*, and that got me thinking.
Take all the research results on health, nutrition, etc, and assume a New York population that has an average BMI of 22 (the optimal, right?), with a sigma about the mean of 2 (or 3), and some modest number of 'outliers' (various pathologies, etc - people with essentially zero control over their way-off-the-mean BMIs). Assume a similar distribution re healthy lifestyles (diet, exercise, no smoking, moderate alcohol consumption, etc, etc, etc), and a similar number of 'outliers'.
Plug in reasonable values for the cost of treating illnesses, accidents, prudent screening (breast cancer, colon cancer, ...), etc.
Assume a competitive market (pharmaceuticals, health care providers, etc).
From the current ~17% of GDP that US spends on health care (broadly defined), how great would the drop be?
* I think I also heard that this has more than doubled in just a decade or two ...
Take all the research results on health, nutrition, etc, and assume a New York population that has an average BMI of 22 (the optimal, right?), with a sigma about the mean of 2 (or 3), and some modest number of 'outliers' (various pathologies, etc - people with essentially zero control over their way-off-the-mean BMIs). Assume a similar distribution re healthy lifestyles (diet, exercise, no smoking, moderate alcohol consumption, etc, etc, etc), and a similar number of 'outliers'.
Plug in reasonable values for the cost of treating illnesses, accidents, prudent screening (breast cancer, colon cancer, ...), etc.
Assume a competitive market (pharmaceuticals, health care providers, etc).
From the current ~17% of GDP that US spends on health care (broadly defined), how great would the drop be?
* I think I also heard that this has more than doubled in just a decade or two ...