Is North Korea's Defiance of U.N. Sanctions Pushing Us Closer to War?

[Topher925]

It looks like the situation with North Korea is only going to get worse. Do you think we might be able to just wait for this country to collapse in on itself?

North Korea responded to new U.N. sanctions with more defiance, promising Saturday to step up its nuclear bomb-making program by enriching uranium and threatening war on any country that dares to stop its ships on the high seas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090613/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

 

[kyleb]

While I have no love for the North Korean regime, I don't see why we have to harass them over nuclear testing. Seems to me we are just egging them on when we'd be better off to ignore them.

 

[BAnders1]

Now that they are holding two Americans prisoner, we can't just ignore North Korea completely.

 

[skippy1729]

It looks like the situation with North Korea is only going to get worse. Do you think we might be able to just wait for this country to collapse in on itself?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090613/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear

I believe the average North Korean is 4 or 5 inches shorter that the average South Korean due to malnutrition. It took 50 years for the "people's republic" to achieve that. In another 200 years they will all be about two feet tall. No, I think "collapsing in on itself" will take too long.

20 or 30 years ago there was a presidential Executive Order prohibiting assassination of foreign heads of state. My opinion of Obama will go way up if he rescinds this order. He wouldn't actually have to commit to going through with the act, or even mention North Korea. The very act of rescinding it might bring the North Koreans back to the bargaining table.

cheers, skippy

PS It might give the ayatollahs something to think about...ah, martyrdom.

 

[BAnders1]

20 or 30 years ago there was a presidential Executive Order prohibiting assassination of foreign heads of state.

That didn't stop us from trying to assassinate Fidel Castro (not sure when our last attempt was, so I may be wrong). Even so, maybe lifting the order will be like placing a revolver on the negotiating table.

 

[kyleb]

Now that they are holding two Americans prisoner, we can't just ignore North Korea completely.

I didn't mean to suggest ignoring them completely, rather just their nuclear testing. Again, at the moment I feel we are simply antagonising them further rather than accomplishing anything productive.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

... Seems to me we are just egging them on when we'd be better off to ignore them.

I think we already tried that plan with Hitler.

 

[kyleb]

Care to elaborate? I don't see anything I've said here could be construed along the lines your analogy suggests. Also, please note my clarification I posted just before your reply.

 

[Borek]

That didn't stop us from trying to assassinate Fidel Castro (not sure when our last attempt was, so I may be wrong).

Must have been when the CIA put grease on the stairs - you remember when he slipped and fell?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Care to elaborate? I don't see anything I've said here could be construed along the lines your analogy suggests. Also, please note my clarification I posted just before your reply.

He's a nut who cannot be ignored. Given his current posture without nuclear weapons, what do you think his position will be when he has them?

 

[kyleb]

He does have nuclear weapons, and regardless of how far he develops them he will still be the ineffectual little dictator who is bound to croak any year now, just the same as he is today.

What benefit has hounding him about nuclear testing got us?

 

[cristo]

He does have nuclear weapons, and regardless of how far he develops them he will still be the ineffectual little dictator who is bound to croak any year now, just the same as he is today.

Well, surely if he uses his nuclear weapons he will not longer be an "ineffectual little dictator", no?

 

[Phrak]

He's a nut who cannot be ignored. Given his current posture without nuclear weapons, what do you think his position will be when he has them?

What are you saying!?
Are you aware that Kim Jung-il is a Physics Forum member?

 

[kyleb]

Well, surely if he uses his nuclear weapons he will not longer be an "ineffectual little dictator", no?

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

 

[mheslep]

Well, surely if he uses his nuclear weapons he will not longer be an "ineffectual little dictator", no?

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

At which point some tens or hundred of thousands would be dead in S. Korea, or Japan, whatever meets Dear Leaders fancy. And if he'd been allowed to get to that point, he'd probably also already have sold weapons to some other Dear Leader wannabe, and started nuclear weapons programs in other SE Asian countries Is that the threshold you suggest before any more 'antagonizing' action can be taken?

 

[math_04]

For once, America should use its military power for a good cause to scare off North Korea. All the UN seems to have done is scold North Korea in a very puny manner and urge it to come back to negotiations which is obviously has no intention of doing. What should be done is warn North Korea that if you explode another bomb, we will search every ship and block all ships from entering North Korea. If you continue down the same path or launch a war, we will respond with force and use all means necessary to ensure that you will never be a threat to world peace again. The message should be reiterated publicly by Obama and sent to North Korea.

That should stop them for many a reason. Firstly, China will start seriously pressurizing North Korea to listen to America and return to the negotiating table. The last thing China wants is an American ally at its doorstep and it damn well would not go to war over Korea again. Secondly, it would finally penetrate those thick skulls of the North Korean military leadership that America really means business, no more mucking around and sucking up to them. North Korea seems to think it can dictate terms which it has been allowed to do for too long.

 

[evilpostingmong]

For once, America should use its military power for a good cause to scare off North Korea. All the UN seems to have done is scold North Korea in a very puny manner and urge it to come back to negotiations which is obviously has no intention of doing. What should be done is warn North Korea that if you explode another bomb, we will search every ship and block all ships from entering North Korea. If you continue down the same path or launch a war, we will respond with force and use all means necessary to ensure that you will never be a threat to world peace again. The message should be reiterated publicly by Obama and sent to North Korea.

That should stop them for many a reason. Firstly, China will start seriously pressurizing North Korea to listen to America and return to the negotiating table. The last thing China wants is an American ally at its doorstep and it damn well would not go to war over Korea again. Secondly, it would finally penetrate those thick skulls of the North Korean military leadership that America really means business, no more mucking around and sucking up to them. North Korea seems to think it can dictate terms which it has been allowed to do for too long.

Exactly, show them who's boss! You can't reason with this dictator
with glasses of tea, files, and a table between one another, he's a maniac!

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

Considering the danger to the world that nuclear arms represents would you not think that attempts to slow and stop proliferation and development are preferable to none? Perhaps the tack that is currently being taken is ineffective and different avenues ought to be explored. But do you really think that we ought to stop trying all together? Perhaps better to try and still lose than to lose for having not tried enough?

 

[kyleb]

Considering the danger to the world that nuclear arms represents would you not think that attempts to slow and stop proliferation and development are preferable to none?

Sure, but again, I don't see hounding North Korea over its nuclear testing being productive to those ends.

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

Sure, but again, I don't see hounding North Korea over its nuclear testing being productive to those ends.

Ignoring them, as you seem to suggest, is?

 

[math_04]

While having a pacifistic view to other crisis like Iran may serve a purpose, certainly it comes to nothing with regards to North Korea. North Korea is run by a dangerous unstable dictator who is ably supported by a military who gleefully wants to wage war against South Korea at the first opportunity. Once it acquires a few nuclear bombs, who knows how the regime will behave? I would not put it past them to nuke South Korea or even Japan over a petty excuse that one of its ships was searched or there was a minor confrontation on the border.

You cannot expect North Korea to act rationally in a crisis and with a nuclear armed Korea, it becomes even more dangerous. It is clear that even China cannot control North Korea enough. We are talking about a country that sent a missile over Japan at one point. America, Japan and South Korea should start threatening North Korea with serious consequences if they continue down the same path. Now is a good time to threaten them because firstly, North Korea probably do not have a nuclear bomb yet and secondly, the delivery system for the nuke is crude and would probably blow up before launch. Mind you, no one is advocating war but merely threatening them with serious consequences. That way, we can still have a reluctant China on our side and hopefully scare off North Korea and humiliate it.

 

[kyleb]

Ignoring them, as you seem to suggest, is?

Rather, at least it wouldn't be egging them on.

 

[skippy1729]

When we had the good old Cold War, everyone had enough firepower to incinerate the planet. We also had MAD "mutually assured destruction" we knew it and the soviets knew it and it made the world a safer place to live.

Now we have Iran and North Korea being run by irrational people. MAD means nothing to them. Ahmadinejad views the total destruction of Israel as paving the way for the return of the 12th iman.
His predecessor Rafsanjani said that killing 5 million Jews might result in losses of 15 million Iranians but this would be a small sacrifice to pay for Muslims around the world. We know what is in their heads; we don't even know what makes Kim Jong-il tick. These people are much more dangerous than the USSR ever was.

Skippy

 

[kyleb]

Now we have Iran and North Korea being run by irrational people. MAD means nothing to them.

Eccentric people anyway, but I have no reason to suspect they don't respect the concept of MAD, and rather figure that understanding is exactly what motivates North Korea's current nuclear weapons program, and the one Iran was running previously.

Ahmadinejad views the total destruction of Israel as paving the way for the return of the 12th iman.
His predecessor Rafsanjani said that killing 5 million Jews might result in losses of 15 million Iranians but this would be a small sacrifice to pay for Muslims around the world.

Can you substantiate these claims?

 

[rootX]

While I have no love for the North Korean regime, I don't see why we have to harass them over nuclear testing. Seems to me we are just egging them on when we'd be better off to ignore them.

You are suggesting that let them do whatever they want and we should better ignore them.

So, when we should start taking them seriously?

 

[kyleb]

Whenever they want to have a serious talk about reconciliation with the South, which I think could have happened already by now if we had been less antagonistic.

 

[skippy1729]

Can you substantiate these claims?

Rafsanjani statement: Alan M. Dershowitz, Preemption: A Knife That Cuts Both Ways" (2006) page 175.

Ahmadinejad statement: Alan M. Dershowitz, "The Case Against Israel's Enemies" (2008) page 14.

We all eagerly await your pronouncement that Dershowitz is an unreliable pawn of the Israel Lobby, blah, blah. Save your fingers, I'll do it for you.

Cheers, Skippy

 

[math_04]

Iran, although run by a president that regularly spews out hateful rhetoric, is mostly a rational actor. There are bigger forces at work in Iran than the president, an informal politburo along with the Supreme Leader runs the country and for the most part, although they are hardliners, they are rational thinkers as well. So far, they have not launched missiles at other countries like North Korea or have had massive military buildups aimed at the total destruction of a state. In fact, recent UN reports and even American intelligence suggests that Iran has abandoned nuclear bomb production for the time being unlike North Korea which kicked inspectors out and have openly said that they will build nuclear bombs.

North Korea is different. What kyleb suggests is that we ignore North Korea and therefore let them go on with their nuclear bomb production and let them build an arsenal of nuclear bombs aimed at different cities across Japan and South Korea. What would you say to all those Koreans and Japanese who would be frightened of even living in close proximity to an irrational nation, who at the first sign of trouble, would have no qualms about launching a nuclear missile at its neighbours. The pride of North Korea's deluded leadership is not its inefficient, underequipped military but rather its ability to fire a bomb and thus create fear across the whole region.

Kim Jong Il and his military subordinates are probably laughing at America and her allies for doing practically nothing apart from a simple 'im disappointed in you' statement. This might give them the hopefully false impression that everyone is scared of North Korea's power and escalate the situation by launching cross border raids or launching more missiles over South Korea and Japan. While North Korea's population lives in extreme poverty, these megalomaniacs will within a year probably be able to have a decent delivery system and then things will definitely change. With a nuclear armed North Korea, even a small cross border incident could lead to a nuclear strike on Seoul without any warning, such is the threat posed by an irrational leadership.

 

[kyleb]

Rafsanjani statement: Alan M. Dershowitz, Preemption: A Knife That Cuts Both Ways" (2006) page 175.

Ahmadinejad statement: Alan M. Dershowitz, "The Case Against Israel's Enemies" (2008) page 14.

We all eagerly await your pronouncement that Dershowitz is an unreliable pawn of the Israel Lobby, blah, blah. Save your fingers, I'll do it for you.

Cheers, Skippy

Pawn? Hardly, more like a knight. Regardless, would you please quote the statements and present whatever sources were cited?

 

[kyleb]

What would you say to all those Koreans and Japanese who would be frightened of even living in close proximity to an irrational nation, who at the first sign of trouble, would have no qualms about launching a nuclear missile at its neighbours.

I don't see any reason to support such a claim.

 

[rootX]

Whenever they want to have a serious talk about reconciliation with the South, which I think could have happened already by now if we had been less antagonistic.

What about the arm race in that region? NK wouldn't be the only one to expand its military powers.

 

[drankin]

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

Wow, that's a pretty naive statement. He's only detonating nukes and shooting rockets over other countries. Nothing to worry about you say? The term "detached from reality" comes to mind.

 

[Cyrus]

Exactly, show them who's boss! You can't reason with this dictator
with glasses of tea, files, and a table between one another, he's a maniac!

Yeah! Becuase that's exactly what's being done! Woo hoo! (Sarcasm)

 

[CRGreathouse]

Eccentric people anyway, but I have no reason to suspect they don't respect the concept of MAD, and rather figure that understanding is exactly what motivates North Korea's current nuclear weapons program, and the one Iran was running previously.

I agree.

 

[cristo]

Of course not, he'd be toppled immediately, and dead shortly after, which is something for him to worry about himself rather than the rest of us and isn't likely to happen anyway.

Who's going to "topple him" though, and what makes you think it'd be done so quickly. How long did it take to catch Sadam, again?