Great Prophet III: Iran's Missile Tests

[humanino]

Why would Iran conduct nine missile tests right now, and call it Great Prophet III ?
They want it ?

 

[Astronuc]

What I heard today was that Iran tested missiles in response to some Israeli military exercises that were perceived to be in preparation for an attack on Iran.

I believe I heard one of the Iranian ministers indicated that if Iran is attacked, they will launch missiles at Tel Aviv.

Some people need to chill out.

 

[Art]

Why would Iran conduct nine missile tests right now, and call it Great Prophet III ?
They want it ?

In response to this

Israelis 'rehearse Iran attack'

Israel has carried out an exercise that appears to have been a rehearsal for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, US officials have told the New York Times.

More than 100 Israeli fighter jets took part in manoeuvres over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece in the first week of June, US officials said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7465170.stm

Strangely enough the US didn't condemn this Israeli exercise as being provocative

It seems Iran is sending a message that any attack on her will be reciprocated. Perhaps it would be a good idea as Astronuc said for everyone to chill out.

 

[lisab]

Looks like Iran fired off a second round today:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/10/missile.iran/index.html

Maybe if they keep testing, they'll eventually fire off ALL their rockets...

 

[Gokul43201]

Looks like Iran fired off a second round today

Or they hired someone to fake a test firing.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/25613318#25612706

A handout picture released on the Web site and public relations arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Sepah News, was apparently digitally altered to show four missiles rising into the air instead of three during a test-firing in the Iranian desert on July 9, 2008. The second missile from the right was apparently added in a digital retouch to cover a grounded missile that may have failed during the test. (Sepah News via AFP - Getty Images/)

Really, everyone is making this out to be some kind of huge unprovoked threat by the Iranians, while it is mostly just an understandable reaction to Israeli threats.

 

[freerangequark]

Looks like they fired one missle too many...

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/in-an-iranian-image-a-missile-too-many/index.html?hp

-FRQ

 

[lisab]

Looks like they fired one missle too many...

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/in-an-iranian-image-a-missile-too-many/index.html?hp

-FRQ

That's really funny!

 

[quadraphonics]

Really, everyone is making this out to be some kind of huge unprovoked threat by the Iranians, while it is mostly just an understandable reaction to Israeli threats.

Which, in turn, are just understandable reactions to Iranian threats and provocations such as funding/arming Hezbollah and Hamas, wishing for the annihilation of Israel, holding Holocaust-denial conferences, and developing weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them. At the end of the day, Israel doesn't pose any inherent danger to Iran; it's a tiny state a thousand miles away. It's only because Iran is pursuing regional Islamic hegemony, which requires getting out in front of the Arabs on the conflict with Israel, that there is any enmity between the two at all. Israel would be more than happy to ignore Iran if the mullah's weren't so busy pouring cash and weapons into the hands of people who launch indiscriminate attacks on Israel on a daily basis.

 

[Gokul43201]

So you agree it is not unprovoked?

At the end of the day, Israel doesn't pose any inherent danger to Iran; it's a tiny state a thousand miles away...

...which does not have at least thrice the Iranian air capability, has not developed the Jericho II with a range of a few thousand miles (Tehran is less than a thousand miles from Israel), and most definitely doesn't possesses any nuclear warheads or the capability to deliver them. And of course, none of this capability which doesn't exist now, also didn't exist way back in the 70s, 80s or 90s, before Hezbollah or Hamas were formed, before Holocaust denial conferences were held, before Ahmedinejad made speeches about Israel, and definitely before Iran develops WMDs, sometime in the future.

Making this whole affair look like a completely one-sided story takes a bit of spin. There are probably many times when Iran has delivered unprovoked threats - this isn't one of them.

 

[drankin]

This missile photo really makes them look like clowns. Clowns that have a lot of money, guns, and now long range missiles that kinda work. Nah, we shouldn't worry about Iran, clowns are harmless.

 

[quadraphonics]

So you agree it is not unprovoked?

Few threats are, which is why it's not an interesting question. Indeed, the entire "unprovoked threat" stance is simply a strawman introduced by yourself; I don't know of anyone actually subscribing to it. The interesting issue is what is driving hostilities between Iran and Israel in the first place. In a nutshell, each side is looking to use the other as a bogey-man to build Arab support for the advancement of their own interests.

Iran wants to attain regional hegemony, which requires both dethroning the most militarily formidible state in the region (Israel) and also undermining the Arab states, who oppose this project (again, by getting out in front of them on the conflict with Israel). It also fits in with the mullah's ideas of Islamic Revolution, although that is not always a consistent driver of Iranian policy. Israel, for their part, want to shore up their own borders (which are kept messy by Iranian funding and support) and their relations with the Arab states (who share an interest in opposing Iranian regional hegemony). Both sides are self-interested and ruthless, but I don't think that their aims are equally malign in this case. No Iranians have been killed by Israeli arms and funds; the converse is not true. Indeed, Iran-sponsored groups launch unprovoked, indiscriminate attacks on Israeli civilians on a more-or-less daily basis.

...which does not have at least thrice the Iranian air capability, has not developed the Jericho II with a range of a few thousand miles (Tehran is less than a thousand miles from Israel), and most definitely doesn't possesses any nuclear warheads or the capability to deliver them. And of course, none of this capability which doesn't exist now, also didn't exist way back in the 70s, 80s or 90s, before Hezbollah or Hamas were formed, before Holocaust denial conferences were held, before Ahmedinejad made speeches about Israel, and definitely before Iran develops WMDs, sometime in the future.

None of which adds up to a threat to Iran, given that Israel has no inherent reason to be hostile to Iran. Similarly, the United States has vast arsenals of nuclear weapons and the means to rain them down on Israel, or Saudi Arabia, or Jordan, or Egypt, but that doesn't add up to threats to those countries because the US has no interest in doing so. Hostility between Iran and Israel is entirely an artifact of Iran's desire for regional primacy. If they weren't going out of their way to undermine Israel, they would be of little interest to Israel.

Making this whole affair look like a completely one-sided story takes a bit of spin.

Ignoring the fact that one side is clearly the aggressor in this situation takes more than spin. It takes willful ignorance. This is not the Arabs we're talking about here: Israel has never done anything to harm Iran. They're just unlucky enough to be a Jewish state that stands between Iran and the violent domination of the Middle East. Some things are true even if George Bush believes them.

 

[Art]

It was Israel conducting a military exercise in preparation for an attack on Iran not the other way around. Iran has made no such threat to Israel. Iran has stated it will only attack Israel if Israel attacks them first. If Israel wishes to avert this threat then the answer is simple - don't attack Iran.

I'm sure Israel's borders would be less messy as Quadraphonics termed it if only these pesky Palestinians would obligingly stop fighting the invaders of their land and go away and die somewhere but unfortunately despite draconian, cruel and brutal actions by the Israeli government and it's military backed by the US gov't resulting in the deaths and imprisonment of 1000s of Palestinians the Palestinian people continue to subvert the will of the Zionists. Good for them! Hamas is a recent development in the ME funded mainly from Saudi Arabia and is a result of the Israelis refusal to reach agreement with the secular PLO and their continuing effort to grind down the Palestinian population.

The fuss about Hamas is just a smoke screen. If Hamas disappeared tomorrow Israel would simply look for another excuse to avoid negotiating any agreement which resulted in them leaving the occupied land. Israel's strategy is to occupy the land for a long enough period as to establish a permanent claim over it and so genuine peace talks are not to their advantage. The fact the Palestinians want to make this as difficult as possible for them seems a perfectly reasonable reaction to me.

 

[russ_watters]

Iran has made no such threat to Israel. Iran has stated it will only attack Israel if Israel attacks them first.

You mean besides the attacks they carry out on Israel via proxy on an almost daily basis and besides the other stated threats from Iran, right?

The fuss about Hamas is just a smoke screen. If Hamas disappeared tomorrow Israel would simply look for another excuse to avoid negotiating any agreement which resulted in them leaving the occupied land.

"The Sum of all Fears" has a group of Palestinians protesting peacefully and the implications are profound for the kind of pressure it would put on Israel. But it is a moot point: they can't be considered legitimate without first acting legitimate. And I tend to not give the benefit of the doubt to the side who has stated explicitly that the only peace they will accept is with the other side wiped-out. Heck, really you just have to take both sides at their word. You are actually taking both sides to be liars: the Israelis are liars because they say want peace and the Palestinians are liars because they say they don't!

 

[Art]

You mean besides the attacks they carry out on Israel via proxy on an almost daily basis and besides the other stated threats from Iran, right?

Can you provide sources to prove either of these allegations or are you just waffling again? Perhaps you're confused with the US funding of the anti-Iranian terrorist group the MEK??

 

[humanino]

In response to

Strangely enough the US didn't condemn this Israeli exercise as being provocative

Interestingly enough, I happen to be french, follow mainly french news, and if they are biaised there is a general agreement that it is more usually biaised towards Palestine than Israel ! I so happen to have seen the very same day, in the very same edition, a quite accusating investigation against Israel. The question was not so much of "why they did it ?" but rather "how can they be so careless ?".

 

[Art]

"The Sum of all Fears" has a group of Palestinians protesting peacefully and the implications are profound for the kind of pressure it would put on Israel.

I wonder why the Palestinians never thought of that Oh, on second thoughts they did

Ten die as Israeli tanks fire on peaceful protest

Israeli forces fired tank shells into a peaceful Palestinian protest during the ongoing assault on Rafah refugee camp yesterday, killing at least 10 people - mostly children - and critically wounding many others.

The army described the incident as "very grave", claimed it had only fired "warning shots" and said there was no intention to harm civilians. But it attempted to shift responsibility for the carnage to the several thousand demonstrators by saying some were armed.

However, no weapons were visible as the crowd walked through the heart of Rafah trailed by children.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2004/may/20/israel1

Hmm that didn't work out too well for the Palestinians, did it?

But it is a moot point: they can't be considered legitimate without first acting legitimate. And I tend to not give the benefit of the doubt to the side who has stated explicitly that the only peace they will accept is with the other side wiped-out. Heck, really you just have to take both sides at their word. You are actually taking both sides to be liars: the Israelis are liars because they say want peace and the Palestinians are liars because they say they don't!

Actions speak louder than words and Israel's actions have been as far apart from a strategy for peace as one could get

 

[drankin]

Help me out here, Art. What part should Isreal do to create peace there? Let's say they never retalliated against attacks. Would we then have peace? Would everyone leave them alone?

 

[quadraphonics]

It was Israel conducting a military exercise in preparation for an attack on Iran not the other way around. Iran has made no such threat to Israel.

No, the missile tests that comprise the topic of this thread constitutes Iran conducting a military exercise in preparation for an attack on Israel. There is absolutely no other possible reading of that event, and Iran's official spokesmen have been unequivocable on this point. That it might have been in response to an Israeli exercise doesn't change that, even if you ignore the fact that said Israeli exercise was itself in response to Iranian provocations.

Iran has stated it will only attack Israel if Israel attacks them first.

Right, they're so reasonable: stand there are take it while I pour money and arms into the hands of Hamas and Hezbollah and develop nuclear weapons, or I will launch a direct attack on your population centers. They're practically peaceniks!

Notice that Israel has never suggested attacking Iranian cities, only nuclear facilities.

If Israel wishes to avert this threat then the answer is simple - don't attack Iran.

Again, you're ignoring the obvious fact the ongoing Iranian-backed assault on Israel is what is motivating Israel to rattle sabers in the first place. Israel has no interest in an Iran that is not out to get it; indeed, prior to the revolution, they enjoyed very good relations with Iran and assisted in developing Iran's military and nuclear capabilities. Even after the revolution they assisted in the Iran-Contra arms deals, despite Tehran's refusal to recognize them on ideological grounds. Tensions between the two are entirely driven by Iranian irredentism. Efforts by various posters to paint Israel as the bad guy here all share one huge, gaping hole: Israel has no reason to pursue hostilities with Iran other than self-defence. Give me one reason why Israel would set about provoking hostilities with an Iran that wants only to be left alone.

I'm sure Israel's borders would be less messy as Quadraphonics termed it if only these pesky Palestinians would

Nice polemic. Too bad it doesn't apply to Hezbollah. You know, the Iranian-backed group that Israel fought a border war with last year?

The fuss about Hamas is just a smoke screen. If Hamas disappeared tomorrow Israel would simply look for another excuse to avoid negotiating any agreement which resulted in them leaving the occupied land. Israel's strategy is to occupy the land for a long enough period as to establish a permanent claim over it and so genuine peace talks are not to their advantage.

Unsubstantiated nonsense. There might have been a time when Israel contemplated such a strategy, but those days are long gone. It's been clear as day to every reasonable person in Israel that the Palestinians are going to continue to outbreed them, and so make it impossible for Israel to ever subsume the occupied territories. The issue is how to achieve a sustainable solution at an acceptable cost. That, in turn, requires a genuine negotiating partner, which cannot arise as long as outside troublemakers pump money into rejectionist parties in order to sabotage any such agreement.

You'd think that Israel never withdrew from Gaza to listen to some of these slanders...

 

[OAQfirst]

Looks like they fired one missle too many...

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/in-an-iranian-image-a-missile-too-many/index.html?hp

-FRQ

Amateurs.

http://c.imagehost.org/view/0064/realdeal.jpg

 

[lisab]

Amateurs.

http://c.imagehost.org/view/0064/realdeal.jpg

 

[BryanP]

Amateurs.

http://c.imagehost.org/view/0064/realdeal.jpg

That's the funniest thing I've seen in awhile (politically related at least).

Might as well show how serious they are by throwing in the McDonalds sign too!

 

[Art]

Help me out here, Art. What part should Isreal do to create peace there? Let's say they never retalliated against attacks. Would we then have peace? Would everyone leave them alone?

At a minimum they should stop murdering and abusing the indigenous population followed by complete Israeli withdrawal from occupied lands and allow the return of the folk they kicked out. They would then at least be in compliance with UN resolution 242.

It would also be nice to see the world court investigate war crime allegations on all sides and the perpetrators brought to justice.

A quote at the end of the article I linked to earlier sums up the current situation

"The Israelis say they believe in protecting life and we Palestinians only believe in killing. But we are the ones dying."

Returning to the missile test; where was US indignation and anger re testing ballistic missiles in January??

Israel test-fires ballistic missile after Iran warning

Jan 17, 2008

JERUSALEM (AFP) — Israel successfully test-fired a long-range ballistic missile on Thursday, a senior official told AFP, days after warning "all options" were open to prevent archfoe Iran from obtaining atomic weapons.
snip
Thursday's test came two days after Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned that all options were on the table to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

"We are not ruling out any option," a senior government official quoted him as telling parliament's foreign affairs and defence committee, echoing main ally Washington in ratcheting up the rhetoric against Tehran.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gEB-pL7rDR2kQtFab0EZA6mKYAAQ

Doesn't this sound a little like a threat to you?

And all this despite the fact the US's own intelligence services have said Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. A little like Iraq's WMD, it's hard to give up something you don't have.

 

[freerangequark]

Attack of the Clone tool!

 

[mjolnir80]

This missile photo really makes them look like clowns. Clowns that have a lot of money, guns, and now long range missiles that kinda work. Nah, we shouldn't worry about Iran, clowns are harmless.

if you get shot in the face it doesn't matter who shot you be it a "clown" or whatever else

 

[edward]

Every time Iran passes gas the price of oil goes up. I wonder if Iran is sneaking under the radar and investing in the oil futures market?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jul/12/oil.commodities

 

[kyleb]

Unsubstantiated nonsense. There might have been a time when Israel contemplated such a strategy, but those days are long gone. It's been clear as day to every reasonable person in Israel that the Palestinians are going to continue to outbreed them, and so make it impossible for Israel to ever subsume the occupied territories.

Perhaps you are not aware that http://www.btselem.org/Download/Separation_Barrier_Map_Eng.pdf" , effectively dividing and conquering the territory though military occupation, expropriating the land while excluding the indigenous population?

 

[wildman]

Perhaps you are not aware that http://www.btselem.org/Download/Separation_Barrier_Map_Eng.pdf" , effectively dividing and conquering the territory though military occupation, expropriating the land while excluding the indigenous population?

Sounds like the US with our indigenous population.

 

[thomasxc]

Why would Iran conduct nine missile tests right now, and call it Great Prophet III ?
They want it ?

because its foretelling what is to come-us whuppin their rear ends.