Future fields of employment that will grow rapidly

[theb2]

What fields in the future do you see blowing up? Will all the automated truck drivers and grocery clerks become software engineers?

I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately.

 

[Rive]

Security cam watcher.

 

[kyphysics]

What fields in the future do you see blowing up? Will all the automated truck drivers and grocery clerks become software engineers?

I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately.

NO WAY do I think there will ever be legalized automated truck drivers. Maybe self-driving cars, but even then I think the moral questions about accidetns and who's at fault could stall that for decades, if not longer. Just a personal opinion.

But with trucks? NO way...they are too large. Unless your technology is perfect, I just feel the legal questions of fault over an potentially disasterous accident would be too great with large motor vehicles. That thing could do massive damage.

I think as more of humans' basic necessities are met, perhaps more emphasis will be had in society on enjoying life more and/or exploring philosophical questions or a greater desire for things like art. So much of our basic lives are spent in survival mode. Work to pay the bills, so we have:

food, clothing, shelter, and healthcare

Let's say you've got all that in a society. What do you seek out and/or do with your life? I think things:

entertainment
leisure and pleasure (sports, amusement parks, food experiences, etc.)
knowledge (pursuing "useless degrees" - I think this is a relative term - in art, literature, philosophy, etc.) art and "beautification" services

...all could be focal points in society and areas of economic growth. It's interesting to imagine a world where all of one's basic necessities are met already and where a society would go from there. I see broadly:

enjoyment + meaning

being things that people focus on.

 

[StatGuy2000]

NO WAY do I think there will ever be legalized automated truck drivers. Maybe self-driving cars, but even then I think the moral questions about accidetns and who's at fault could stall that for decades, if not longer. Just a personal opinion.

But with trucks? NO way...they are too large. Unless your technology is perfect, I just feel the legal questions of fault over an potentially disasterous accident would be too great with large motor vehicles. That thing could do massive damage.

I think as more of humans' basic necessities are met, perhaps more emphasis will be had in society on enjoying life more and/or exploring philosophical questions or a greater desire for things like art. So much of our basic lives are spent in survival mode. Work to pay the bills, so we have:

food, clothing, shelter, and healthcare

Let's say you've got all that in a society. What do you seek out and/or do with your life? I think things:

entertainment
leisure and pleasure (sports, amusement parks, food experiences, etc.)
knowledge (pursuing "useless degrees" - I think this is a relative term - in art, literature, philosophy, etc.) art and "beautification" services

...all could be focal points in society and areas of economic growth. It's interesting to imagine a world where all of one's basic necessities are met already and where a society would go from there. I see broadly:

enjoyment + meaning

being things that people focus on.

On the contrary, I actually think that trucks are probably the mode of transportation (along with rail and subway trains) that are most likely to be effectively automated, given their relatively fixed routes, thus mitigating for the sheer volume of data needed for the machine learning algorithm to adapt while driving (although questions regarding safety may temper adoption, at least in the immediate term).

However, unlike yourself, I'm not convinced that developments in technology alone will necessarily move us toward the meeting of all basic necessities of what you speak of. For that to take place, changes in basic governance to ensure that the basic needs are met for all citizens need to be made (e.g. experimenting with guaranteed annual income, negative income tax, etc.) After all, much of the rise in the standard of living that we in the Western world has enjoyed are as much of a result of social welfare systems being instituted by democratic governments (often under pressure from activists, unions, and the broader electorate) in concert with the developing economy.

Otherwise, I'm afraid that developments in current technology in a laissez-faire economic system like the US will lead to a great exacerbation of already present inequalities.

 

[kyphysics]

On the contrary, I actually think that trucks are probably the mode of transportation (along with rail and subway trains) that are most likely to be effectively automated, given their relatively fixed routes, thus mitigating for the sheer volume of data needed for the machine learning algorithm to adapt while driving (although questions regarding safety may temper adoption, at least in the immediate term).

I could be biased, having been hit by a dump truck in an auto accident a few years ago (lots of physical therapy followed). It is scary seeing a large vehicle like that come at you.

I've read that they could have designated automated driving lanes on roads and that would make me feel a bit safer. Even better would be those designated automated driving lanes with big barriers between them and the regular lanes. But mixing automated driving vehicles with human drivers in the same lanes does make me feel uneasy. I just don't know if we'll ever get to a point where those self-driving cars (big and small) can be smart enough and be able to make judgments about things like humans can to be mixed in the same lanes.

However, unlike yourself, I'm not convinced that developments in technology alone will necessarily move us toward the meeting of all basic necessities of what you speak of. For that to take place, changes in basic governance to ensure that the basic needs are met for all citizens need to be made (e.g. experimenting with guaranteed annual income, negative income tax, etc.) After all, much of the rise in the standard of living that we in the Western world has enjoyed are as much of a result of social welfare systems being instituted by democratic governments (often under pressure from activists, unions, and the broader electorate) in concert with the developing economy.

Oh, I agree! I should have qualified my comments earlier with something like IF we ever reach that stage...

IF we have a society where technology and morality are advanced enough (I think of Star Trek's universe where people don't care about money anymore and they have the technology to meet basic human needs and use their time and technology for discovery...), I could see "economics" (if it exists) maybe more focused on human enjoyment and meaning (like people pursuing knowledge for knowledge's sake...getting those "useless degrees" some people criticize nowadays...I don't think they're useless...it's just that most humans lives on Earth - especially outside of the U.S. and modernized nations - is overwhelmingly focused on practical survival, which can leave little room for sitting around to contemplate philosophy questions or study ancient art and literature, etc. ...but in some society where survival didn't occupy such a huge part of our daily existence, those other things seem like they'd take on greater interest...just speculation on my part).

What I fear could get in teh way are evil, selfish people who don't want to use our resources and improving technologies for this type of Star Trekian world, but rather to take more for themselves by any means necessary.

 

[gleem]

One of the biggest growth professions is in health care. Boomers are retiring and over the next decade or two we will need more nurses and other patient care workers. Even today there is a nurse shortage. see http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/30/news/economy/nursing-school-rejections/index.html

There are currently about three million nurses in the United States. The country will need to produce more than one million new registered nurses by 2022 to fulfill its health care needs, according to the American Nurses Association estimates.

That's a problem.

In 2017, nursing schools turned away more than 56,000 qualified applicants from undergraduate nursing programs. Going back a decade, nursing schools have annually rejected around 30,000 applicants who met admissions requirements, according to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing.

"Some of these applicants graduated high school top of their class with a 3.5 GPA or higher," said Rosseter. "But the competition to get into a nursing school right now is so intense."

Because of the lack of openings, nursing programs across the board -- in community colleges to undergraduate and graduate schools -- are rejecting students in droves.

This is the current need and it will increase into the 2040's. Of course along with this will be be need for more extended care facilities. One can also foresee attempts to use technology to create a less costly and/or a more efficient health care system.

 

[kyphysics]

One of the biggest growth professions is in health care. Boomers are retiring and over the next decade or two we will need more nurses and other patient care workers. Even today there is a nurse shortage. see http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/30/news/economy/nursing-school-rejections/index.html

This is the current need and it will increase into the 2040's. Of course along with this will be be need for more extended care facilities. One can also foresee attempts to use technology to create a less costly and/or a more efficient health care system.

I do wonder...will we need more or less (or same) health care professionals if the U.S. got universal healthcare?

On the one hand, people would have better preventative care and you'd see perhaps less people with "built-up" illnesses and problems. On the other hand, maybe lots more people will have affordable access and start using services more.

Healthcare jobs will always be around as long as humans are mortal and can be sick in any way shape or form. Safe bet.

Welding jobs are in such high demand that many drug addicts (who are starting fresh and getting clean) are being trained to do them. You can get paid something like $90K doing manual labor in this field. Not enough people have the qualifications and specialized training. Yet, there's a big shortage. Even ex-felons who are trained can get jobs immediately. Demand is so high!

Truck driving is another in-demand field. It's hard work staying awake to make time-sensitive routes and can sometimes be dangerous (Google drivers falling asleep and crashing and lack of protection laws), but it's a job that you can make good money off of (over $100,000 in some areas of driving) without a college education.

Computer programming is one where you can make good money too via what are known as coding bootcamps. You need no prior experience. My cousin currently attends one in NYC and starting salaries are $100,000 + (not much for NYC, granted) for less than a year of training. I've been learning a little on my own on the side...just for fun, though.

Things may change 5-10 years later, but these three are currently pretty good jobs in high-demand.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Anything AI related

 

[Rive]

Anything AI related

For "truck drivers and grocery clerks"? I don't think so...

There will be a great need of IT security 'adepts' too, but that's also not a job what fits for those who can be replaced with robots or basic AIs.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

For "truck drivers and grocery clerks"? I don't think so...

In the future, there won't be any, because AI will take over.

 

[Rive]

In the future, there won't be any, because AI will take over.

Yeah. So the 'liberated' masses will need some kind of jobs. As I see that's what theb2 asked about

 

[jtbell]

I do wonder...will we need more or less (or same) health care professionals if the U.S. got universal healthcare?

On the one hand, people would have better preventative care and you'd see perhaps less people with "built-up" illnesses and problems. On the other hand, maybe lots more people will have affordable access and start using services more.

Healthcare jobs will always be around as long as humans are mortal and can be sick in any way shape or form. Safe bet.

Old people tend to need more healthcare services than young people. <cough> The proportion of old people in the population is increasing. So is the demand for in-home care services, so that hopefully fewer old people need to move to special facilities (assisted-care and nursing homes), or at least more of them can postpone it.

Unfortunately, at the moment it seems to me that in-home health care aides tend to be at or near the bottom of the totem pole when it comes to pay, status, etc., among medical workers. How long will it be before robots can help people dress, bathe, go to the toilet, etc.?

 

[russ_watters]

Yeah. So the 'liberated' masses will need some kind of jobs. As I see that's what theb2 asked about

I'm not sure the intent was that strictly limited, but even if it was, the answer is still relevant. Remember, there are two basic types of people who may be affected by a technology shift like this:
1. Current truck drivers/clerks, etc. who will be displaced.
2. Kids who have not yet selected a field of employment.

Grocery clerk is not a career, so nobody should be aspiring to make it one, so I don't think that needs to be addressed. People make careers of truck driving though, so kids should take into account the potential AI takeover of it when selecting a career.

Mike Rowe turned Dirty Jobs into advocacy of the idea that too many people go to college and get useless degrees and not enough go to tech schools and become tradespeople. I think he's correct...Today. That may not be the case 20 years from now in general and definitely certain individual fields will be greatly affected.

 

[Suyash Singh]

I am studying right now so i think i know some things
Robotics and computing surely will continue to grow (especially the new fields )
Cyber security
Doctors
Weapon development and army
Sex robot makers and prostitutes
Entertainment field is ever growing with increasing number of main actors, plus their bodyguards , and all their crew

 

[gleem]

Check out the list of most common jobs in the US and see what you think what jobs will be affected by technology in the coming decades and the effect on the general employment in the country.

https://www.ranker.com/list/most-common-jobs-in-america/american-jobs

Note that retail sales and cashiers come in at 1 and 2 while the first computer/software jobs come in at 47,58,59

 

[kyphysics]

Unfortunately, at the moment it seems to me that in-home health care aides tend to be at or near the bottom of the totem pole when it comes to pay, status, etc., among medical workers. How long will it be before robots can help people dress, bathe, go to the toilet, etc.?

Definitely a tough job too. My great granduncle's wife essentially does all this "medical assistance" stuff for my GGU. He's unable to do a lot of basic stuff like even getting up to shower. She has to physically help lift him up and help him shower/bathe. They save money by not hiring help, but she spends a good portion of time and energy taking care of him every day.

Beyond robotic help, maybe advances in medicine and neuroscience can reduce some of the degenerative effects of aging.

At least with life-expectancy, we've come a long way. Look at the early 1900's to the early 2000's. People are living to 80 years old and beyond regularly now. Who knows what will change in the next 50-100 years. Will we get 125 or 150 year old people regularly?

 

[kyphysics]

In the future, there won't be any, because AI will take over.

Any sources/references for AI definitely taking over truck driving?

I hear stuff like this all the time, but am skeptical. How close to certain are you guys on this one?

 

[kyphysics]

Something this thread got me thinking about is the social aspect of life going forward in the age of AI.

With robots possibly taking over so much of everyday needs and replacing humans, will there be a kind of increased social need of humans? Granted, we don't necessarily get our social needs fulfilled talking to our waiter or grocery store clerk, etc. But, imagine having lots and lots of human jobs replaced by robots and not physically being near such people anymore. Would there be a surge in "social interaction" economies/industries to replace the displaced human interactions we're used to having?

 

[Suyash Singh]

I have a good answer
People who talk to other people especially in western societies where there is less family structure.
I mean that people who will give you companionship for money

 

[russ_watters]

Any sources/references for AI definitely taking over truck driving?

I hear stuff like this all the time, but am skeptical. How close to certain are you guys on this one?

It's a prediction so by nature it can't be proven or considered definite. But since there is no fundamental difference between self driving cars and trucks, the progress we have seen - mostly in cars - applies to both.

And note, there are a lot of different types and uses of trucks. Some are a lot easier to automate than others, such as shipyard or delivery trucks, which can have well defined and repetitive routes. At that, the line between "truck" and "train" blurs as well.