Expected number of red balls drawn before drawing a white ball

In summary, the conversation discusses the expected number of red balls that will be drawn before the first white ball, given a bag with 50 balls, 4 of which are white and 46 of which are red. The homework equations involve calculating the probability of drawing k or more red balls and finding a closed form for the sum. The solution is found to be a sum of \frac{C_{46}^{k}}{C_{50}^{k}} and the answer is determined to be 46/5.
  • #1
txy
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Homework Statement



There are 50 balls in a bag, all are the same except for the color. 4 of them are white while the rest (46) of them are red. Now randomly draw balls from the bag, one at a time, without replacement. What is the expected number of red balls that you will draw before you first draw a white ball?

Homework Equations



If a discrete random variable X takes only positive values, then its expectation
[tex]E(X) = \sum_{k=1}^{+\infty}P(X \geq k)[/tex]

The Attempt at a Solution


Let X be the number of red balls drawn before first drawing a white ball. I can't seem to find [tex]P(X \geq k)[/tex]. Can somebody give me a hint?
 
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  • #2
Say it out loud :)
What is the probability, that you draw 1 or more red balls? It is of course the probability of the first ball being red.
What is the probability, that you draw 2 or more red balls?
Etc.
You should get a nice sum, which you will be able to write in a closed form.
 
  • #3
The probability of the first k balls is red is [tex]\frac{C_{46}^{k}}{C_{50}^{k}}[/tex]

This is so difficult to sum!
 
  • #4
Is it OK for the answer to just be a sum? It might be the case that this doesn't have a better looking form than a sum.
 
  • #5
But the answer is 46/5 ...
 

Related to Expected number of red balls drawn before drawing a white ball

1. What does "expected number of red balls drawn before drawing a white ball" mean?

The expected number of red balls drawn before drawing a white ball refers to the average number of red balls that will be drawn before a white ball is drawn in a given set of draws.

2. How is the expected number of red balls calculated?

The expected number of red balls is calculated by multiplying the probability of drawing a red ball in each draw by the number of draws and then adding them together. This can also be calculated using a mathematical formula.

3. Is the expected number of red balls a guaranteed result?

No, the expected number of red balls is a statistical prediction based on probability and may not be the exact number of red balls drawn in a specific set of draws. It is more of an average or estimate.

4. Can the expected number of red balls change?

Yes, the expected number of red balls can change depending on the number of draws, the probability of drawing a red ball, and if any red balls are drawn before a white ball in a set of draws.

5. How is the expected number of red balls useful in research or experiments?

The expected number of red balls can be useful in research or experiments as it helps to predict outcomes and make informed decisions. It can also be used to analyze and compare results to determine if they align with the expected outcome.

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