Basic, but confusing, counting problem

In summary, the problem is asking for the probability of getting exactly 4 numbers correct in a lottery where 6 numbers are chosen from 49 numbers without repetitions. The solution is (43 Choose 2)(6 Choose 4)/(49 Choose 6) which represents the number of possible tickets with exactly 4 correct numbers. This is found by considering the number of ways to choose 2 incorrect numbers from the 43 incorrect ones and 4 correct numbers from the 6 correct ones. This can be thought of as picking 6 balls out of a bag with 49 balls where 6 are red and 43 are blue, and the odds of getting exactly 4 red balls. This can also be understood through the concept of permutations
  • #1
Bre Ntt
5
0
This is a pretty basic counting problem, but it is confusing me to no end. I know the answer (from the back of the book), but I just don't understand the answer.

Homework Statement


Find the probability of getting exactly 4 numbers correct in a lottery where 6 numbers are chosen from 49 numbers (no repetitions.)


The answer is (43 Choose 2)(6 Choose 4)/(49 Choose 6)

(43 Choose 2)(6 Choose 4) is apparently the number of possible tickets with exactly 4 correct answers. But I'm not sure exactly why. I think (43 Choose 2) is the number of possible tickets which have 2 numbers which do not match the winning numbers. Why multiply this by (6 Choose 4) though? I'm thinking it has something to do with considering how many ways you can choose 4 numbers from the 6 winning numbers, but I don't understand why one multiplies it by the number of ways possible tickets which have exactly 2-non-matching numbers.


I can't figure out an intuitive way to grasp this counting process. It almost makes sense to me, but not quite. Can anyone explain this with an intuitive counting argument?
 
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  • #2
Imagine there are 49 balls in a bag, 6 are red and 43 are blue.
You pick six balls out of the bag.
What are the odds you'll get exactly 4 red balls.
Now do you get it?

There are 43 numbers that are incorrect and six correct numbers, total 49.
2 of your numbers come from the 43 incorrect ones.
4 of your numbers come from the 6 correct ones.

Have a look at:
http://betterexplained.com/articles/easy-permutations-and-combinations/
 
  • #3
That way of thinking about it helps. Thank you :)
 

Related to Basic, but confusing, counting problem

1. What is a basic counting problem?

A basic counting problem is a mathematical question that involves determining the number of ways that a set of objects or events can be arranged or selected.

2. How do I approach a basic counting problem?

To solve a basic counting problem, you first need to identify the number of objects or events involved, and then determine the number of choices or arrangements for each object or event. Finally, you multiply the number of choices for each object or event to find the total number of possible outcomes.

3. What makes counting problems confusing?

Counting problems can be confusing because they often involve multiple steps and require careful consideration of all possible outcomes. Additionally, the language used in the problem may be complex or ambiguous, making it difficult to understand the question and come up with a solution.

4. How can I improve my counting problem solving skills?

Practice is key to improving your counting problem solving skills. Work on a variety of problems and try different approaches to find the most efficient method for solving them. Additionally, familiarize yourself with common counting principles and strategies, such as the multiplication and addition principles, permutations, and combinations.

5. Can counting problems be applied to real-world situations?

Yes, counting problems can be applied to many real-world situations, such as determining the number of possible outcomes in a game, the number of ways to arrange furniture in a room, or the number of different meal combinations at a restaurant. Counting principles are also used in fields such as economics, genetics, and statistics to analyze and make predictions about different scenarios.

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