Recent content by taylrl3

Hi, Basically I would like to learn about the beginning of time and I am wondering what literature I should read surrounding this. **For the record; I have a Master's degree from a top university in Astrophysics** Thanks in advance!

Hi, I am sure there must be something already on here about this kind of thing so if you could point me in that direction that is fine, or to a site anywhere. Basically I have three columns of data, let's say Column A, Column B and Column C. Column A is dependant upon both Columns B & C...

Hi, I have a data set that I have performed a regression upon. It looks to me like the data is heteroskedastic but I would like to make sure. I have heard that the White Test is a good test for heteroskedasticity but I have never performed one before so would be interested in any guidance on...

Ok. Given that a Bayesian approach would not be appropriate, might there be any other estimators I might use to calculate the probability of winning an individual point? I am ideally looking at unbiased estimators. There aren't really any series involved. Earlier in the thread there was an...

Thanks haruspex. I am wondering what other methods there are of estimating the probability of A winning a match. I have been looking at Bayesian methods (though I am not sure this would be appropriate) and I believe the first step is to find a prior. For this I was considering using a...

I have calculated the mean for each point played based on all the previous points. I think this might be the place to start. I am reading that the posterior = (likelihood * prior)/marginal likelihood. I wan to use a Bayesian approach to estimating the likelihood of player A winning a match. I...

Ok, apologies for being vague. I am only just finding my way in this. What I had done initially was simply to take the average number of points that A won and divide by the total number of points played (p = 24/40 = 0.6). I realized that this isn't really that great and I would like to take...

Hi, I am trying to learn something about Bayesian Analysis by doing an example. I have a series of 10 matches played between A and B, where each match is the first to 3 points. With an example data set that looks like this: ABBAA BAAA AABBA BBB BABB AAA AABA BAAA AABBB AAA I...

That is beautifully put :-) I am now thinking about alternative methods of estimation. Am I right however in thinking that anything that produces a probability differing from the minimal error estimator in method 2 (p=0.6) is biased and therefore less satisfactory? Also, as this is a small...

p is the probability of player A winning any particular point (so that the probability of player B winning any point is 1-p). We don’t know the value of p, but we would like to estimate it based on the results of the ten matches that these players have contested. 1. Someone suggests that for...

I agree entirely. I am set on using the mean across all of the points as the best estimator. Could you look back at my last post and possibly help me with defining p and p' mathematically? I have given the definitions in the book but they seem to be conflicting.

Ok, I am going to use method (1) as the proportion of all points won. I was also a little confused initially and I only want to calculate the probability of A winning a point and not a match anyway so that is fine. I would like to attempt to define p and p' mathematically but at the moment I...

Thanks HallsofIvy. I have been through your explanation and it is a very nice and clear explanation of how to calculate the probability of winning a match, given the probability of winning a point. Given the formula you gave at the end of your post, I have taken p = 0.6, calculated from the...

Massive thank yous for your responses. Firstly clamtrox: I forgot to also mention that each point is independent of every other point. Would this mean that the second way that I suggested that gives p=0.6 as I thought is the correct way (by correct I mean unbiased)? If so, I am wondering...

Basically I have a Master’s degree in Astrophysics but I haven’t done any mathematics for a few years now and am getting a little rusty. I thought a good way of dusting off some of my probability skills would be to do an exercise. Here is the problem: Suppose we want to model a game of pong...