The "Treatise on Probability - Keynes" is a book written by British economist John Maynard Keynes in 1921. It is a highly influential work in the field of economics, particularly in understanding the concept of probability and its application in economic decision-making.
The main argument presented in the "Treatise on Probability - Keynes" is that probability is a subjective concept, influenced by individual judgment and experience. Keynes also argues that traditional probability theories, such as those based on the laws of chance, are limited and do not accurately reflect real-world situations.
The "Treatise on Probability - Keynes" has had a significant impact on economic theory, particularly in the field of decision-making under uncertainty. Keynes' ideas on subjectivity and probability have influenced the development of behavioral economics and prospect theory, which have challenged traditional economic theories based on rationality and perfect information.
One of the main criticisms of the "Treatise on Probability - Keynes" is that it lacks mathematical rigor and precision. Some have also argued that Keynes' emphasis on subjectivity and the limitations of traditional probability theories can lead to inconsistent and unreliable economic predictions.
The "Treatise on Probability - Keynes" is not directly related to Keynesian economics, which primarily focuses on macroeconomic theories and policies. However, some of Keynes' ideas on probability and decision-making have been applied in the field of behavioral economics, which has influenced the development of Keynesian economics. Additionally, Keynes' work on probability has been cited as an influence on his later work, "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money".