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Carlos Hernandez
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When will computer hardware match the human brain?
(Received Dec. 1997)
Hans Moravec
Robotics Institute
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890, USA
net: hpm@cmu.edu
web: http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/
ABSTRACT
This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. Based on extrapolation of past trends and on examination of technologies under development, it is predicted that the required hardware will be available in cheap machines in the 2020s.
Complete text at http://www.jetpress.org/volume1/moravec.htm
(Received Dec. 1997)
Hans Moravec
Robotics Institute
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890, USA
net: hpm@cmu.edu
web: http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/
ABSTRACT
This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster hardware. The processing power and memory capacity necessary to match general intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated. Based on extrapolation of past trends and on examination of technologies under development, it is predicted that the required hardware will be available in cheap machines in the 2020s.
Complete text at http://www.jetpress.org/volume1/moravec.htm