- #1
rollingstein
Gold Member
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- 16
Someone posed this Stat / Probablity problem to me:
Two teams A vs B play a tournament of seven games against each other. First team to won 4 games wins the tournament. The games are split over each team's home stadium as A A B B B A A.
Historically the home team wins a game 55% of the time. What's the probability that team A wins the tournament?
Now, I simulated this in R as a series of events drawn from three binomial distributions. I get a 0.52 win probability for team A. i.e. A small advantage remains for the team that starts the tourney since it gets 4 home games vs three for the other team.
Just wanted to double check this answer if it is amenable to an analytic solution.
I tried increasing the number of simulations and the answer of 0.52 is fairly stable but not sure whether I've converged onto the asymptotically right answer or not.
Two teams A vs B play a tournament of seven games against each other. First team to won 4 games wins the tournament. The games are split over each team's home stadium as A A B B B A A.
Historically the home team wins a game 55% of the time. What's the probability that team A wins the tournament?
Now, I simulated this in R as a series of events drawn from three binomial distributions. I get a 0.52 win probability for team A. i.e. A small advantage remains for the team that starts the tourney since it gets 4 home games vs three for the other team.
Just wanted to double check this answer if it is amenable to an analytic solution.
I tried increasing the number of simulations and the answer of 0.52 is fairly stable but not sure whether I've converged onto the asymptotically right answer or not.
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