Simple probability with high frequency

In summary, the conversation revolves around understanding the probability of a specific event happening over multiple trials. The formula discussed is 1 - (51/52)^n, where n is the number of attempts, and the probability of getting at least one ace of spades is 90%. The term used for this is cumulative probability. The conversation concludes with confirmation that the formula and terminology are correct.
  • #1
windy miller
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I'm trying to remember simple probability form high school. I'd like to know how the probability of anyone event changes with frequency. So for example the probability of getting one ace of spades is 1/52; what is the probability of getting at least one ace of spades if the card is put back and reshuffled over two events? How many events do you need to get a 90% probability of getting the ace of spades?
I think the formula is this: 1- (51/52)^n where n is the number of times you try. 51/52 because that the chances of your event not happening.
So I get 119 attempts gives you a 90% probability of getting at least one ace of spade.
Am I right? Also regarding the terminology is this the cumulative probability ?
 
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  • #2
Correct.
windy miller said:
Also regarding the terminology is this the cumulative probability ?
The cumulative probability for getting an ace the first time: yes.
 
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Related to Simple probability with high frequency

1. What is simple probability with high frequency?

Simple probability with high frequency refers to the likelihood of a specific event occurring when there are a large number of trials or repetitions. It is based on the assumption that as the number of trials increases, the frequency of occurrence of a particular outcome will approach its true probability.

2. How is simple probability with high frequency different from regular probability?

Simple probability with high frequency is different from regular probability because it focuses on the long-term frequency of an event occurring rather than the exact probability of that event happening in a single trial. High frequency probability relies on the law of large numbers, while regular probability considers each trial as an independent event.

3. What is the law of large numbers?

The law of large numbers states that as the number of trials increases, the observed frequency of a particular event will converge to its true probability. In other words, the more times an experiment is repeated, the closer the results will be to the expected outcome.

4. How is simple probability with high frequency used in real-life applications?

Simple probability with high frequency is used in many real-life applications, such as in insurance, gambling, and sports. For example, insurance companies use high frequency probability to determine premiums, while sports analysts use it to predict the outcome of games based on past statistics.

5. What are some limitations of simple probability with high frequency?

One limitation of simple probability with high frequency is that it assumes the events are independent and identically distributed, which may not always be the case in real-life situations. Additionally, it only considers the long-term frequency of an event, and cannot accurately predict the outcome of a single trial. It also does not take into account any external factors that may influence the outcome of an event.

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