Scientists try new ways to predict climate risks

[Evo]

OSLO (Reuters) - Scientists are trying to improve predictions about the impact of global warming this century by pooling estimates about the risk of floods or desertification.

"We feel certain about some of the aspects of future climate change, like that it is going to get warmer," said Matthew Collins of the British Met Office. "But on many of the details it's very difficult to say."

"The way we can deal with this is a new technique of expressing the predictions in terms of probabilities," Collins told Reuters of climate research published in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A.

But these have flaws because of a lack of understanding about how clouds form, for instance, or how Antarctica's ice will react to less cold. And reliable temperature records in most nations stretch back only about 150 years.

"Climate science is a very new science and we have only just begun to explore the uncertainties," said David Stainforth of Oxford University in England who contributed research to the Royal Society.

"We should expect the uncertainty to increase rather than decrease" in coming years as scientists work to understand the climate, he said. That would complicate the chances of assigning probabilities.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070812/sc_nm/climate_uncertainty_dc;_ylt=Ag1yFddYptlo6iNlm.Fyz0r737YB

 

[RetardedBastard]

Did you hear about how a blogger recently found a y2k bug in NASA's climate data, if I'm understanding this correctly, it turns out that some of what we've been hearing about "global warming" from NASA indeed was seriously overblown.

To quote the most revelant part:

"NASA has now silently released corrected figures, and the changes are truly astounding. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place. 1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II."

Just amazing.

 

[ravenprp]

The efforts of scientists to improve predictions about the impact of global warming are crucial in helping us prepare for potential risks and mitigate the effects of climate change. As the article mentions, there are still many uncertainties in predicting climate risks, but using a technique of expressing predictions in terms of probabilities is a step in the right direction. This method allows for a more nuanced understanding of the potential impacts of global warming and allows for better decision-making in terms of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

However, as the article also points out, there are still limitations and flaws in current climate predictions due to the complexity of the climate system and a lack of understanding about certain factors. This highlights the need for continued research and investment in the field of climate science. As we continue to gather data and improve our understanding of the climate, it is likely that the uncertainty surrounding predictions will increase. This may complicate the process of assigning probabilities, but it is important to remember that uncertainty does not mean inaction. We must use the best available information to make informed decisions and take steps to address the impacts of global warming.

Overall, the efforts of scientists to improve predictions about climate risks are crucial in helping us prepare for and adapt to the changing climate. It is important for governments and individuals to support and invest in research and initiatives that aim to better understand and address the impacts of global warming. Only by working together can we effectively tackle the challenges posed by climate change.