Poker flush draw possibilities

  • Thread starter morrowcosom
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In summary: Therefore, the probability of getting a flush is approximately 38.72%. In summary, the conversation discusses the probability of getting a flush in a card game. The person already has 4 cards towards the flush and there are 9 cards remaining in the deck that will give them a flush. This means there is a 19.15% chance of making the flush on the turn and a 19.57% chance of making the flush on the river. When added together, this gives a 38.72% chance of making the flush by the river card. Therefore, the probability of getting a flush is approximately 38.72%.
  • #1
morrowcosom
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I am the only one drawing from the deck. I come out with two cards of matching suit. The flop them comes down with two cards matching my suit, therefore giving me a flush draw. What is the probability of getting a flush?

Here is my go at it:
(I am going by helping cards/unseen cards)

I already have 4 cards of the flush, so there are only 9 cards left out of the original 13 that help. I have seen 5 out of 52 cards so far, so 47 remain


On the turn: 9/47= 19.15% On the river: 9/46= 19.57%

So by adding these two together, I get a 38.72% of getting a flush by the river card, If I get a flush draw on the flop.

This seems correct, but if not, what is the error of my ways?

Thanks
 
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  • #2
for your help! Your calculation is correct. You have 4 cards towards the flush already, so you need one more of that suit to make a flush. There are 9 cards remaining in the deck that will give you that flush, out of 47 unseen cards (52 cards total - 5 cards you've seen). This means there is a 9/47 or 19.15% chance of making the flush on the turn and a 9/46 or 19.57% chance of making the flush on the river. When added together, this gives a 38.72% chance of making the flush by the river card.
 

Related to Poker flush draw possibilities

1. What is a flush draw in poker?

A flush draw in poker refers to a hand that has four cards of the same suit with one card still needed to complete a flush (five cards of the same suit). For example, if a player is holding 2 spades and 2 hearts and there are 3 spades on the board, they have a flush draw.

2. How do you calculate the probability of hitting a flush draw in poker?

The probability of hitting a flush draw in poker is dependent on the number of outs (cards needed to complete the flush) and the number of cards remaining in the deck. To calculate the probability, multiply the number of outs by 2 and then add 2 to get the percentage. For example, if there are 9 outs, the probability of hitting a flush draw is 9 x 2 + 2 = 20%.

3. Is it worth chasing a flush draw in poker?

The decision to chase a flush draw in poker depends on many factors such as the number of outs, the pot odds, and the opponent's betting patterns. Generally, if the pot odds are greater than the odds of hitting the flush, it may be worth chasing. However, it is important to consider the potential risks and rewards before making a decision.

4. What is the difference between an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw in poker?

An open-ended straight draw in poker refers to a hand with four consecutive cards that can be completed on either end (e.g. 5, 6, 7, 8). A flush draw, on the other hand, requires one more card of the same suit to complete a flush. While both types of draws offer potential for a strong hand, a flush draw typically has higher odds of being completed.

5. How do you play a flush draw in poker?

The strategy for playing a flush draw in poker depends on various factors such as the strength of the draw, the number of opponents, and the size of the pot. In general, it is important to consider the odds of hitting the flush, the potential risks, and the potential rewards before making any decisions. It may also be beneficial to mix up your play and not always chase a flush draw, as this can make your play more predictable to opponents.

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