Pakistan raid possibly devastating to Al Qaeda?

[Pengwuino]

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/international/middle_east/view/2011_0504al-qaeda_soldiers_on_the_run_experts_say/srvc=home&position=also

Terror-stricken al-Qaeda terrorists are probably on the move, fearing the sudden arrival of helicopters overhead and Navy SEALs blasting through their doors, as America’s best intelligence minds scour Osama bin Laden’s computers for data they can use to smash the deadly Islamic extremist network, experts said yesterday.

Navy SEALs grabbed 10 hard drives, five computers and more than 100 storage devices, including flash drives, DVDs and documents. The SEALs also confiscated phone numbers from bin Laden’s body.And if panicked jihadis are indeed bolting from compromised safe houses, they could be vulnerable.

For me, this actually puts a huge +1 in the "Pro" column when it comes to the discussion of whether it was smart to conduct a ground operation vs an aerial strike on this target. Bin Laden may not have been operationally very relevant, but one must wonder what kind of information he would have had on him. Safe houses, financial donors, government contacts? I'm truly excited to find out what kind of information they found (even though I'm sure that won't be public knowledge for along time).

What does everyone think? Could this be the biggest compromising force Al Qaeda can face? Are they simply too spread out for much damage to be done?

I really hope in the next few weeks we start hearing about raids occurring world wide to take out the SOBs who have been funding this organization and who might be funding organizations like it.

 

[Borek]

Hard to say if he really had a lot of valuable information, as he was mostly separated from the world to avoid detection. Still, if they are running, they are on the move, when they are on the move, they are more vulnerable.

 

[mege]

Remember: it was via a consistent courier that the US was able to track bin Laden's location. Why would he risk a consistent visit at the same location if he was being totally reclusive?

I have a feeling that he was more involved than was previously thought. His tasks were likely more in the realm of propaganda and helping to run their information war than planning physical strikes.

 

[WhoWee]

Hard to say if he really had a lot of valuable information, as he was mostly separated from the world to avoid detection. Still, if they are running, they are on the move, when they are on the move, they are more vulnerable.

I agree. The danger is they may take desperate actions?

 

[rootX]

Pakistan raid possibly devastating to [STRIKE]Al Qaeda [/STRIKE]Pakistan ?

 

[drankin]

If we aren't allowed to use harsh interrogation techniques to extract info then killing them on site is the next option. We will probably see more of that in the field as opposed to apprehension for an interview.

 

[Pengwuino]

I have a feeling that he was more involved than was previously thought. His tasks were likely more in the realm of propaganda and helping to run their information war than planning physical strikes.

My question is their financial situation. You don't run organizations like this on the cheap and if anything, he would be a major influence on the financial aspect of Al Qaeda.

 

[rootX]

Sentiments running across in Pakistan:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13280814

"Frankly speaking, I think this is just going to lead to more bloodshed in Pakistan.

"Our armed forces are always assuring us that they will protect us. I can't believe they let this happen," says Mr Mateen.

"This means the entire world can now point fingers at Pakistan and call it a state that supports people the West calls terrorists and militants."

"America has killed the man they said was responsible for all those attacks against the US. Its mission is accomplished - and it's time for them to leave us in peace," says Arsalan Mateen in Karachi.

 

[Evo]

Thanks to turbo for this.

An al-Qaida member on the Saudi most-wanted list has turned himself in.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ml_saudi_al_qaida;_ylt=AqiphA_m5wy31riNk0ap.FSs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNjMWYwOGpwBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNTA0L3VzX2Jpbl9sYWRlbgRjY29kZQNtb3N0cG9wdWxhcgRjcG9zAzEEcG9zAzcEcHQDaG9tZV9jb2tlBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcnkEc2xrA3NhdWRpcG9saWNlYQ--

 

[drankin]

Turn yourself in or a SEAL team may show up unannounced! And they aren't much for taking prisoners.

Now that's how you do it. :)

 

[turbo]

Turn yourself in or a SEAL team may show up unannounced! And they aren't much for taking prisoners.

Now that's how you do it. :)

Once the intelligence agencies, cryptographers, and translators wade through the hard drives, DVDs, CDs, flash drives and other storage media recovered from his hideout, al-Qaida operatives should expect some visits. The terrorists should start planning exit-strategies very soon.

Most of the mainstream media is beginning to catch on. The actions of Obama's administration and the US intelligence services (and his own decisions regarding the course of action) have ended up with a very positive outcome. If we had simply bombed the compound, we would have lost all the evidence that our SEALs captured, with no assurance (proof) that Osama was dead. The raid could have gone badly, but the upside looks pretty good now. If we can take out a sizable fraction of al-Qaida's leadership, or at least keep them on the run and isolated from their support networks, the world should be a safer place.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Could this be the biggest compromising force Al Qaeda can face?

"The dream to kill me will never be completed" - Osama Bin Laden

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/after-bin-laden-can-we-stop-a-bigger-threat-1304373958456/#ixzz1LPN5sQKo

My understanding is that Bin Laden was believed to be protected by God. So we didn't just kill a charismatic leader, we killed a belief. In this sense there is no way to replace Bin Laden.

I think this will be devastating to Al Qaeda as we know it. Unfortunately, retaliation seems all but a certainty, but the beast has been mortally wounded.

I can't help but reflect back on the summer of 1987, when Oliver North first told us about Bin Laden and the unique danger he posed to the US.

 

[Amp1]

Do you have some references for that Ivan? I'll google anyway but thanks in advance 'cause that's interesting.

 

[turbo]

Do you have some references for that Ivan? I'll google anyway but thanks in advance 'cause that's interesting.

The terrorist in question was Abu Nidal, not OBL.

http://www.snopes.com/rumors/north.asp

 

[Amp1]

Thanks Turbo-1, I do think that Prez Clinton's outgoing Terrorist Czar - forgot the name - tried to school/ warn incoming Prez Bush.

 

[Pengwuino]

My understanding is that Bin Laden was believed to be protected by God. So we didn't just kill a charismatic leader, we killed a belief. In this sense there is no way to replace Bin Laden.

See it is this reason that I disagree with people who say that this won't impact the war on terror. We didn't just kill some guy. We killed the reason many of these people were willing to strap bombs onto themselves and blow up men, women, and children. I think Americans aren't too use to this idea. I mean, if the President were to be assassinated, it would be a horrible day but in the end, the Presidency is an idea that can't be killed and will endure beyond anyone President's tenure. Bin Laden, on the other hand, was it. There is no institution that represents the head of Al Qaeda, just him.

It would be like if we were to have been able to kill the Japanese Emperor back near the start of the Pacific war in WWII.

I think this will be devastating to Al Qaeda as we know it. Unfortunately, retaliation seems all but a certainty, but the beast has been mortally wounded.

I'm starting to wonder if there even will be retaliation. My gut tells me 'of course'. On the other hand, depending on how much data and the quality of the data they can get from what they picked up in the raid, their whole network might be compromised. Every terrorist might go to sleep tonight afraid they're going to wake up to their door being kicked in. They may even be scrambling to figure out exactly how much damage is done. I personally think the situation throughout their network may be more of chaos and confusion than plots of revenge. As the article I posted implied, people might just drop everything and try to get the hell out of wherever they are.

I can't help but reflect back on the summer of 1987, when Oliver North first told us about Bin Laden and the unique danger he posed to the US.

I remember back when I was in 8th grade, our history teacher showed us a documentary or something on Bin Laden and he said he felt he was the most dangerous man in the world. Two years later, 9/11 happened.

 

[Char. Limit]

I'm starting to wonder if there even will be retaliation. My gut tells me 'of course'. On the other hand, depending on how much data and the quality of the data they can get from what they picked up in the raid, their whole network might be compromised. Every terrorist might go to sleep tonight afraid they're going to wake up to their door being kicked in. They may even be scrambling to figure out exactly how much damage is done. I personally think the situation throughout their network may be more of chaos and confusion than plots of revenge. As the article I posted implied, people might just drop everything and try to get the hell out of wherever they are.

My main worry is that some of them might feel that they don't have any options, and so they may as well go out with a bang.

 

[rootX]

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/after-bin-laden-can-we-stop-a-bigger-threat-1304373958456/#ixzz1LPN5sQKo

My understanding is that Bin Laden was believed to be protected by God. So we didn't just kill a charismatic leader, we killed a belief. In this sense there is no way to replace Bin Laden.

That's contrary to any respectable article I have read.

Also note the article quality to which you linked here.

 

[drankin]

My main worry is that some of them might feel that they don't have any options, and so they may as well go out with a bang.

LOL! Good one, even if you're serious!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

The terrorist in question was Abu Nidal, not OBL.

http://www.snopes.com/rumors/north.asp

Yikes! Sorry, I was going completely on memory on that one. I thought North was the first to mention Bin Laden.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

That's contrary to any respectable article I have read.

Also note the article quality to which you linked here.

I was just linking the quote where Bin Laden himself makes prediction.

Given that the article is about the economy, hence the link to smartmoney, no doubt it wouldn't be a very good article about Bin Laden.

 

[Amp1]

Be still, its not over;

I remember back when I was in 8th grade, our history teacher showed us a documentary or something on Bin Laden...

You were around 13-14 a teen?! OBL was perhaps an icon but hopefully his pedestal wasn't real.

Also, I hope the ominous undertone of Char. Limit's isn't real

My main worry is that some of them might feel that they don't have any options, and so they may as well go out with a bang.

The double entendre could have been unintentional but we just need to stay aware.

 

[Ryumast3r]

Be still, its not over; You were around 13-14 a teen?! OBL was perhaps an icon but hopefully his pedestal wasn't real.

Also, I hope the ominous undertone of Char. Limit's isn't real The double entendre could have been unintentional but we just need to stay aware.

I was in 4th grade at the time of 9/11... what does that make me? :P

 

[Char. Limit]

The double entendre could have been unintentional but we just need to stay aware.

Oh no, it was completely intentional.

 

[Amp1]

originally posted by: Ryumast3r

I was in 4th grade at the time of 9/11... what does that make me?

Adult but kid back then. 20