Exploring the Limits of Predictability: Can Physical Outcomes Be 100% Certain?

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In summary, the conversation discusses the predictability of physical outcomes and the impact of chaos theory. It is stated that if one believes in chaos theory, it is not possible to predict outcomes with 100% accuracy due to the sensitivity of dynamical systems to initial conditions. The conversation also mentions the discovery of Lorentz where slight variations in initial conditions lead to vastly different outcomes. However, it is noted that not all systems are chaotic and the unpredictability of quantum mechanics is also mentioned.
  • #1
Loren Booda
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Is any physical outcome 100% predictable?
 
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  • #2
Hi Loren
If you believe in chaos theory, the answer is no. Dynamical systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions. It means that if you want to calculate the outcome of a process, you have to know the exact values of the initial conditions, and this is impossible. Initial conditions very similar, but different after all, give very different results. This is what surprised Lorentz when he discovered that slightly different initial conditions forecast very different weathers
 
  • #3
Originally posted by meteor
Hi Loren
If you believe in chaos theory, the answer is no. Dynamical systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions. It means that if you want to calculate the outcome of a process, you have to know the exact values of the initial conditions, and this is impossible. Initial conditions very similar, but different after all, give very different results. This is what surprised Lorentz when he discovered that slightly different initial conditions forecast very different weathers

The outcome of chaotic systems can be predicted 100%, if all the variables are known, also not all systems are chaotic.

The answer's still no though 'cos in QM the collapse of the wavefunction is a stochastic process.
 

1. What is predictability in science?

Predictability in science refers to the ability to accurately forecast or anticipate the outcome of a physical event or phenomenon based on existing knowledge and data. It is a key aspect of scientific inquiry and is essential for making informed decisions and advancements in various fields of study.

2. Can physical outcomes be 100% certain?

No, physical outcomes cannot be 100% certain. The laws of physics dictate that there will always be some level of uncertainty in predicting the outcome of a physical event. This is due to various factors such as the complexity of systems, the limitations of measurement and observation, and the unpredictable nature of certain phenomena.

3. How do scientists explore the limits of predictability?

Scientists explore the limits of predictability through theoretical and experimental approaches. They use mathematical models, simulations, and controlled experiments to test the accuracy and reliability of their predictions. They also constantly strive to improve their understanding of the underlying laws and principles governing physical phenomena.

4. What are the implications of limited predictability in science?

The limitations of predictability in science have significant implications for our understanding of the natural world and our ability to make accurate predictions and forecasts. It also highlights the importance of continued research and exploration to further our knowledge and improve our ability to make predictions in various fields, such as weather forecasting and climate change.

5. Can advancements in technology improve predictability?

Advancements in technology have certainly improved our ability to make predictions in certain areas, such as weather forecasting and space exploration. With more advanced tools and techniques, scientists are able to collect and analyze more data, leading to more accurate predictions. However, as our understanding of the complexities of the natural world grows, we also discover new sources of uncertainty, making 100% predictability still unattainable.

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