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Maximize chance of success based on opinion poll


New member
Aug 21, 2019

Here is my (imaginary) problem :

I have to make a medical diagnosis for a patient : is he A or B ?

I can not make inspection of the patient, and my only help is a poll of N medical experts that observed him.

Out of N experts, the track records for their past diagnoses are different:

  • 22% of experts had a success rate of 40%
  • 41% of experts had a succes rate of 53%
  • 37% of experts had a success rate of 68%

Questions :

1 / How can I maximise my chance of giving the right medical diagnosis, based only on the source of medical experts ?
Should I take the most used answer of all N experts, or the most answered of n experts (n < N) , or another solution ... ?

2/ What if the diagnosis asked is not only A or B, but A or B or C ?

3/ What if my experts are the best Y experts out of 100, but I don't know the distribution of their success rate ?

Thanks very much for your suggestions !