Is the world ready to know about extraterrestrial life?

[Jarvis323]

Within about a month, Perseverance and Tianwen-1 will reach Mars. There is a lot of excitement about these missions, and anticipation of a possible mid-2021 discovery of extraterrestrial life.

NASA's chief scientist, Jim Green, thinks we are close, and is worried that people aren't ready for such a discovery,

“It will be revolutionary,” Green said in an interview. “It will start a whole new line of thinking. I don’t think we’re prepared for the results. We’re not.

“I’ve been worried about that because I think we’re close to finding it, and making some announcements.”

---

The Mars 2020 rover, along with the European Space Agency’s ExoMars rover, will drill into the Martian crust. The surface of the Red Planet is believed to be radioactive, so if there is life on Mars, it likely lives below ground.

“We’ve never drilled that deep,” he told the Telegraph. “When environments get extreme, life moves into the rocks.”

The principle’s been proven on our home planet: After drilling miles into the Earth, researchers found more life in the Earth’s crust than on its surface, he said.

“The bottom line is, where there is water there is life.”

And if the agencies’ new rovers find proof that water once flowed on Mars, he said, the confirmation could come weeks or months of landing – so buckle up, space lovers. The realm of possibility might get much wider very soon.

https://nypost.com/2019/10/02/nasa-...e-on-mars-but-the-world-wont-be-ready-for-it/

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/30/us/nasa-life-on-mars-jim-green-scn-trnd/index.html

What do you think? Is a 2021 discovery of life on Mars likely? Will people freak out and start buying up all the toilet paper or something when they learn about it?

 

[davenn]

NASA's chief scientist, Jim Green, thinks we are close, and is worried that people aren't ready for such a discovery,

The surface of the Red Planet is believed to be radioactive, so if there is life on Mars, it likely lives below ground.

That's a horrifically dreadful misquote/misunderstanding by CNN ... typical of that network's inability to report the facts.

The surface of Mars IS NOT radioactive. IT IS heavily bombarded with cosmic rays and solar radiation, X-rays, charged particles etc.
This does NOT make it radioactive. The term radioactive is used to describe the nuclear breakdown of unstable atoms ( isotopes there of).
It suffers this bombardment, at ground level, because it doesn't have a significant atmosphere nor global magnetic field as Earth does.D

 

[Jarvis323]

Here are some snippets from a NASA workshop on the issue.

I am honestly a little surprised how seriously NASA and others take this issue. They seem to worry as if an astrobiological announcement could upend society. They've made some surprising hypothesis as well, such as that discovery of extraterrestrial life may cause a religious resurgence, that it may cause a violent reaction, and that religion may play a major role in coping with the societal stress that knowledge of extraterrestrial life causes.

I get the feeling that once a discovery is made, theologians, sociologists, and communications experts will be picked up in the middle of the night by people in black suits and whisked off to a room filled with large monitors, just like in the movies. They'll be all prepped for an astrobiological announcement induced apocalypse, and then they'll find that most people don't even care, and it will just become another meme.

Discovering how life begins and develops, finding out whether life resides elsewhere, and determining life's future on Earth and beyond will have a profound and fundamental effect on the human species. It will affect our view of the universe, our science, our culture and beliefs—in short, our very existence. The mission of the workshop, then, is to explore how astrobiology will affect and interact with human societies and cultures. Astrobiology is a major, long-term effort, and those of us who are interested in societal implications must be in for the long run. We need to engage and educate the public even though considerable time may pass before society must face immediate, direct, and practical implications. We must undertake long term-advanced preparation for long term missions.
...
People may see the search for extraterrestrial life, space exploration and similar activities as personally irrelevant since they are undertaken by an arcane group of specialists and seem to have little or no obvious bearing to the common person and to everyday life. Astrobiology may be particularly remote to people from subsistence societies. As astrobiological research accelerates, we will “raise the ante”; earning more accolades but also giving rise to more fears. Many people still fight the concept of Darwinian evolution, and some people may be truly fearful of extraterrestrial life. Some of these people may use their political clout to deter astrobiology. For people who believe that they were created in God’s image, discoveries of other life forms could prove devastating and perhaps lead to violent reactions. Astrobiology could replace the Cold War as a source of ideas and controversies. This could continue for decades.
...
Workshop participants developed a strong case for a high level of research and outreach efforts before the fact. Research efforts should include the development of survey instruments to provide accurate quantitative measures of people’s current beliefs and expectations. This will provide us with a better understanding of
people’s likely reactions to discoveries and a reference point for evaluating attitudes in the post-detection world. By developing sound research strategies and measurement devices early on, we will be able to mount prompt research efforts following any announcement of the confirmation of extraterrestrial life.
...
Some scientists may assume that if extraterrestrial life is discovered science will be validated while religion will suffer irreconcilable difficulties and perhaps even collapse. If so, these scientists are underrating religion’s survivability and its usefulness as an adaptive tool. The discovery may stimulate a worldwide resurgence in religious activity. Religion may have an advantage over science as we attempt to adapt to strong and widespread emotional impact. Some of the advantages of religion include: (1) Religion has already had considerable experience dealing with ETs; (2) Religion can answer questions that science cannot; (3) Religious hypotheses may be strengthened by disproof; and (4) Religion provides a built-in, self-activating mechanism for responding to widespread societal stress. In the actual event of encountering extraterrestrial life, some of the needs of humanity as a whole may require the kind of non-scientific solutions provided by religion. Given the number of unknowns in the contact equation, we should not ignore the potential value of any of our adaptive resources.
...
Survey research will be useful for identifying the relative prevalence of different attitudes towards extraterrestrial life, and understanding how these attitudes are affected by cross-cultural and psychological variables. Survey research can help us identify sources of resistance to astrobiology and sources of support for astrobiology. In addition to helping us understand people’s beliefs and expectations and therefore predicting reactions to various types of discoveries, survey research would be useful also for making informed policy decisions. By putting in “front time” now, we will be able to rapidly mount research efforts close on the heels of major discoveries.

WORKSHOP ON THE SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF ASTROBIOLOGY, FINAL REPORT, AMES RESEARCH CENTER, November 16-17, 1999

http://www.astrosociology.org/libra...ort-societal-implications-of-astrobiology.pdf

 

[Jarvis323]

The surface of Mars IS NOT radioactive.

Good catch. I tuned that out somehow.

Though unrelated to the issue at hand, are you sure the surface of Mars is not radioactive?

https://mars.nasa.gov/odyssey/gallery/latestimages/PIA04257.html
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/map-of-martian-potassium-at-mid-latitudes/

 

[256bits]

people aren't ready for such a discovery,

And people would be ready, when...
We adapt.

they'll find that most people don't even care, and it will just become another meme.

Right, but

Astrobiology is a major, long-term effort, and those of us who are interested in societal implications must be in for the long run

Immediate upheaval of society wouldn't result.
People will have to absorb and contemplate.

 

[Jarvis323]

People will have to absorb and contemplate.

True. To be honest, I suppose I should take NASA's chief scientist more seriously if he says "we're not." (ready). It appears they've likely been researching this heavily for more than a decade. I just don't understand how the hypothesized calamity is expected to play out. We already have evidence of life that is much older than 10,000 years. We know about dinosaurs, and the conflicts of those discoveries with religious belief didn't cause social mayhem, and they don't seem to conflict religious beliefs much less than a discovery of microbes on Mars would.

 

[256bits]

Well, any religion worth its salt doesn't portray the Earth being only 2000 years old anymore.

As a hypothesized calamity, IMO, there shouldn't be people massing in the streets, and pulling their hair out.
It would be a gradual thing, as much as anything, such as Aristotle to Copernicus, if you are looking scientifically for the gross effects upon society..

 

[BillTre]

Personally, I would find it all interesting, and possible but not likely.
Thinking it would be found underground makes a lot of sense to me.
There are numerous examples of underground microbes on Earth (the only known example we have of a planet inhabited by life).

However, I would also expect a lot of cultural noise and distraction if life were found.
This would eventually blow over in one way or another.

 

[Rive]

Is the world ready to know about extraterrestrial life?

I don't think it'll ever be ready. Our own importance and uniqueness (and license to own all) is just too deeply rooted belief so too many people would find this 'disturbing enough to be denied/erased/raged out of scope'.

We can't even deal with the thought of global warming, you know

 

[Jarvis323]

However, I would also expect a lot of cultural noise and distraction if life were found.

I guess some distraction wouldn't be the worst thing in the world right now.

 

[sysprog]

NASAs 'Chief Scientist'? ##-## I think that the 'Chief Scientist' job title comes with one or more qualifier(s), such as 'Chief Scientist in Charge of . . .'

 

[Jarvis323]

NASAs 'Chief Scientist'? ##-## I think that the 'Chief Scientist' job title comes with one or more qualifier(s), such as 'Chief Scientist in Charge of . . .'

I don't know, they call him the chief.

https://www.nasa.gov/offices/ocs/chief-scientist_bio

 

[sysprog]

I don't know, they call him the chief.

https://www.nasa.gov/offices/ocs/chief-scientist_bio

OK you win on that ##-## and you provided a .gov citation to prove it ##-## in the '80s I met a guy who had a 'Chief Scientist in Charge of . . .' job title.

 

[davenn]

Though unrelated to the issue at hand, are you sure the surface of Mars is not radioactive?

https://mars.nasa.gov/odyssey/gallery/latestimages/PIA04257.html
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/map-of-martian-potassium-at-mid-latitudes/

no more than the Earth's surface is

 

[gmax137]

Workshop participants developed a strong case for a high level of research and outreach efforts before the fact. Research efforts should include the development of survey instruments to provide accurate quantitative measures of people’s current beliefs and expectations. This will provide us with a better understanding of people’s likely reactions to discoveries and a reference point for evaluating attitudes in the post-detection world.

I think that is the telling part - sociologists / psychologists were fishing for funding.

It would be one thing if the probes somehow discovered subterranean cities of intelligent beings, and quite another if the probes discover a smattering of mold. I just don't see a religious frenzy over mold.

 

[Nudiko]

I am sure that we are not the only ones in this universe. Did anyone witness any UFO in their lives?

 

[Vanadium 50]

Did anyone witness any UFO in their lives?

Lots of times. Doesn't mean any of them are alien spaceships.

 

[Nudiko]

Lots of times. Doesn't mean any of them are alien spaceships.

Good! I am sure I saw it several times but when I was a teenager, after didn't notice anything like this

 

[MikeeMiracle]

Most of the populace will not be ready and would panic. Films/book/TV Shows and other media generally portray things "out of this world" as being bad and coming to get us which plays into the general public's minds.

Most people on Earth are not even accepting of other humans from different backgrounds, let alone alien life.

 

[Jarvis323]

I think that is the telling part - sociologists / psychologists were fishing for funding.

I had this thought as well. But the chief seems to honestly be concerned as well.

 

[Jarvis323]

Good! I am sure I saw it several times but when I was a teenager, after didn't notice anything like this

Another weird 2021 story, as part of the US Covid-19 relief bill, of all things, there is a provision requiring intelligence agencies to produce a detailed unclassified report on what they know about the UFO phenomena.

 

[Vanadium 50]

First, I think Green is jumping the gun. He doesn't know what the outcome will be. Furthermore, it's still quite speculative - it's not like a huge amount of evidence has been accumulating and this will finally push it over the top. I would say that a better description of the evidence is "No strong evidence, but if you squint and look at it just right, there are some things we don't quite understand." This is a sphere of carbon over here, something that looks like a thin film over there.

Second, this is at most no more advanced than pond scum. I think that NASA overrates the impact and maybe even interest a discovery of pond scum on Mars would have.

Third, we've been through this before with AH84001. There wasn't panic in the streets.

Fourth, a century ago people believed there was life on Mars. Apart from the canals, there were surface features interpreted as vegetation. There wasn't panic in the streets.

Fifth, a third of people today (according to Gallup) believe there is life on Mars. Still no panic in the streets.

 

[Jarvis323]

First, I think Green is jumping the gun. He doesn't know what the outcome will be. Furthermore, it's still quite speculative - it's not like a huge amount of evidence has been accumulating and this will finally push it over the top. I would say that a better description of the evidence is "No strong evidence, but if you squint and look at it just right, there are some things we don't quite understand." This is a sphere of carbon over here, something that looks like a thin film over there.

Second, this is at most no more advanced than pond scum. I think that NASA overrates the impact and maybe even interest a discovery of pond scum on Mars would have.

Third, we've been through this before with AH84001. There wasn't panic in the streets.

Fourth, a century ago people believed there was life on Mars. Apart from the canals, there were surface features interpreted as vegetation. There wasn't panic in the streets.

Fifth, a third of people today (according to Gallup) believe there is life on Mars. Still no panic in the streets.

I think it's maybe a who knows kind of thing. In Earth microbial life thrives underground, miles deep even. Some scientists think the unexpected thing would be not finding life underground on Mars. Others are skeptical. It will be the first time to really get a good look. Personally, I'm in the camp that thinks underground microbes are really likely to be found on Mars, but maybe not so easily.

I think people would hardly blink at microbes. But people might surprise me.

 

[davenn]

I don't know, they call him the chief.

https://www.nasa.gov/offices/ocs/chief-scientist_bio

That's a pretty impressive bio/resume

 

[berkeman]

Mentor Note -- An off-topic necropost started a religious philosophy discussion that has been deleted. Thread is closed to avoid attracting similar discussions in the future.