E-mail to JV (Global Warming discussion)

[Andre]

E-mail to Jan Veizer

Subject: The missing link is albedo variation (Pallé et al, EOS Jan 2006)

I've read about your quest for the alternative explanation for global warming here.

<http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=3d885041-2faf-4806-bca8-d8f27e2f38de&k=75278 >

About:

"Veizer theorized that there might be something, directly linked to solar radiation, that amplifies the sun's effect."

Exactly, I think that you are fully correct and that missing link is albedo variation. The Pallé et al (2006) study holds the key, but the researcher appeared to be completely unaware of that.

http://www.bbso.njit.edu/~epb/reprints/Palle_etal_EOS_2006.pdf

"Can Earth's Albedo and Surface Temperatures Increase Together?"

But that's not happening. Since the temperatures are stagnating after 1998 together with the albedo. When I saw fig 2 for the first time I estimated the r2 of the global temperatures (GISS) and albedo variation to be at least 50% and I was right: 57,5%.

http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/albedo-temp.GIF

and

http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/albedo2.GIF

Now if you apply Stefan Boltzman on the 10% albedo variation this would give a blackbody temperature variation of some 2.75 K but in reality it is only 0,5 degrees, which suggests that the oceans provided a strong negative feedback by adsorption of the insolation and getting warming up in the process. Of course IR re-radiation caused by greenhouse gas effect cannot penetrate water and could not have caused the ocean heating.

So with this albedo variation the sequence appears to be the old hypothesis: Increase of Solar magnetic induced field -> deflection of particles towards the poles -> less condensation nuclei -> Less clouds, lower albedo -> more insolation -> global warming.

That should settle the science, I would think.

Just showing that the global warming of the previous decennium can be explained by natural factors.

 

[eternalenemy]

I did a public speaking about Climate change some time back and the research which I did ( which was for school purpose), fascinated me...the world is really going towards it doom, and the doomsday is not far..

 

[ravenprp]

I would be interested in your thoughts on this.






Dear Jan Veizer,

Thank you for bringing this interesting study to my attention. I completely agree with your assessment that the missing link in the global warming discussion is albedo variation. The Pallé et al (2006) study provides strong evidence for this, and it's surprising that the researchers were not aware of its significance.

The correlation between global temperatures and albedo variation, as shown in your graphs, is quite striking. It seems to me that this supports the hypothesis that an increase in solar magnetic induced field can lead to a decrease in cloud cover, resulting in a decrease in albedo and an increase in global temperatures.

I also find your calculation of the blackbody temperature variation based on the albedo change to be very interesting. The fact that the actual temperature increase is much lower than what would be expected from the albedo change alone suggests that there must be a strong negative feedback mechanism at work, such as ocean heat absorption.

I believe that this information should be taken into consideration in the ongoing discussion about global warming. It provides a natural explanation for the recent warming trend and highlights the importance of looking at all factors, including solar activity, when studying climate change.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and insights on this topic. I look forward to hearing more from you in the future.