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Username34's latest activity
Username34
replied to the thread
I
Airplane crash probability fallacy
.
I am addressing the way it's framed by people who knows better.
May 9, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
Does a shaking hammer blow cause less damage than a stiff blow?
.
Does tension before impact increase velocity or is that just a perception?
May 9, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
I
Airplane crash probability fallacy
.
It's not nonsense. People clearly die before those nr of flights in their lifes.
May 9, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
I
Airplane crash probability fallacy
.
But airplaine statistics isn't nature. Airplaines are built by humans, humans are fallible, and possibly corrupt. That alone can throw...
May 9, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
Does a shaking hammer blow cause less damage than a stiff blow?
.
How much force is dissipated by shaking/instability? All else equal
May 9, 2024
Username34
posted the thread
Does a shaking hammer blow cause less damage than a stiff blow?
in
General Discussion
.
They always talk in boxing and martial arts to stiffen at the moment of impact, but how crucial is this? By way of analogy, how much of...
May 9, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
I
Airplane crash probability fallacy
.
You can't deduce how likely it is for you to crash within your lifetime in a random sampling. What you can do is provide the...
Apr 19, 2024
Username34
posted the thread
I
Airplane crash probability fallacy
in
Set Theory, Logic, Probability, Statistics
.
https://anxieties.com/self-help-resources/fear-of-flying/how-safe-is-flying/ "In fact, based on this incredible safety record, if you...
Apr 19, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
If theres a 15% probability each month of getting a woman pregnant...
.
The airplane crash probability statement is wrong for another reason besides asymetrical time evolution (no fixed stats.) Suppose we...
Apr 19, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
If theres a 15% probability each month of getting a woman pregnant...
.
If given millions (or trillions) of trials in one month, would a fertile agent impregnate a female counterpart by necessity, if she...
Apr 19, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
If theres a 15% probability each month of getting a woman pregnant...
.
It is a stats question
Apr 19, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
If theres a 15% probability each month of getting a woman pregnant...
.
Sex is actually a great subject for probability theory. There is no real evidence that pregnacy is caused by any particular technique...
Apr 19, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
If theres a 15% probability each month of getting a woman pregnant...
.
That's assuming the probability figure doesn't change with the arrow of time. But of course it does, she gets older.
Apr 19, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
If theres a 15% probability each month of getting a woman pregnant...
.
Btw, the airplane probability statement is false. It's based on induction. It's safe by such a margin that it doesn't matter, but the...
Apr 19, 2024
Username34
replied to the thread
If theres a 15% probability each month of getting a woman pregnant...
.
Various women, various males into an average and then probability. You obviously don't base it on one persons fertility level. The...
Apr 19, 2024
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