I mean you that are informed of one of the following:
a) "Whatever you originally chose, the other contestant picked the same*."
OR
b) "Whatever you originally chose, the other contestant picked the opposite**"
* Same = you both picked an empty door or a prize door but you don't...
This may mystify some.
Imagine two Monty Hall games taking place simultaneously on different sides of the world. Each game is completely independent and follows the same Monty Hall rules.
Imagine you're a contestant in one of them.
There are three doors - two of them empty, one has a...
Naturally! Certainties dispel counter-intuition.
Translate this to six cups hiding two marbles.
You're about to lift the cups one at a time from A to F.
I ask: "Under which cup are you most likely to find the first marble?". Most people won't assume it's the first cup you lift...
I'm going to assume that the probability to be found is that of tossing 20 or more heads in a row within 86,400 tosses.
In that event, we first calculate how many possible 20 toss successions fit into that 86,400. For example if there were a total of 21 tosses, there would be 2 possible 20...
Having made further calcuations, I draw the following conclusion
The question as stated - where you're told in advance that no more than one dice landed 6 - does yield the intuitive answer: all have equal probability. I was mistaken to think otherwise.
However: if you're not limited to...
I think it's a question with a counter-intuitive answer.
If I'm correct, they are not all equally likely and one of the cups has a higher probability of revealing the 6 than each of the others.
But there may be a flaw in my logic.
Also I amended the wording shortly after I first posted...
Sorry. It's not that kind of riddle! :smile:
I'll rephrase.
"Having labelled them, you will remove the cups accordingly, from A to F.
Under which cup is the dice that landed a 6 most likely to be?"
This is reminiscent of similar dice riddles, but the answer to this one appears to defy logic. Unless I'm mistaken, this is not as obvious as it looks.
There are six unloaded die.
Each has been rolled out of your sight and hidden behind a cup.
You are informed that no more than one of them...
Ok everyone. Exact answers subject to analysis. :smile:
However, you are getting information which of the two remaining boxes is most likely to be red.
I'm now wondering:
Regardless of how many boxes you start with, is there any scenario - with the host revealing the opposite colour...
I'm carefully analysing this Jason.
In the six box scenario, I expected to find that the odds were 50/50 whenever you revealed one of each colour.
But you're right. The odds are indeed 3/7 or 4/7, depending on which you reveal first.
I assume this must affect my answer in the 22 box...
No it isn't. :smile:
You're assuming that 50/50 odds apply, no matter what. You're wrong about this.
With multiple rounds, the probability of what's in the last two boxes can vary. 10 rounds illustrate this well, and was one reason to invoke "Deal or No Deal". Another was people's...
In the the UK version, you do. The banker almost always offers you yhe opportunity to swap boxes at the end. I figured this was universal. Anyway, that is exactly what swap means.
This puzzle is influenced by "Deal or no Deal". That does not mean it is "Deal or no Deal".
As an excercise...
The "Deal or no Deal" dillemma
The problem below combines the familiar quiz show with a dash of Monty Hall.
Deal or No Deal.
22 boxes hiding money prizes.
11 blue (low). 11 red (high).
You chose one box at random.
Obviously you want it to be red.
The other boxes are revealed one by...
I have had some further realisations about your argument.
As already stated, if both Kennedy and Connally were hit within less than 42 frames and if Oswald did all shooting, then the SBT is fact.
Now, in your analysis, you maintain the following:
a) the first shot wounded Kennedy at...
Ok, for our purposes, I will not treat the missed shot as an a priori fact. Whether there is evidence for it is a separate subject, but we can certainly throw it out as a given proposition. (However, a missed shot is automatically required if the SBT is true and Oswald did all the shooting -...