Probability of 25-30 Correct Answers on 200-Q Quiz

  • Thread starter etotheix
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I will look into the normal distribution approximation method.In summary, the conversation discusses a multiple-choice quiz with 200 questions and 4 possible answers, of which one is correct. The question asks for the probability of getting 25 to 30 correct answers out of 80 questions, using the binomial distribution. The suggested hint is to use the normal distribution as an approximation. The attempt at a solution involves dividing everything by 5, but the expert summarizer notes that the hint may actually refer to using the normal distribution instead of dividing.
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etotheix
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Homework Statement



A multiple-choice quiz has 200 questions each with 4 possible answers of which 1 is correct. What is the probability that guesswork yields from 25 to 30 correct answers for 80 of the 200 questions. [HINT: approximation may be helpful here]

Homework Equations



Binomial distribution
(n choose x)p^x*(1-p)^(n-x)

The Attempt at a Solution



Since 80! is too big of a number and I can't calculate for instance (80 chose 25) I decided to divide everything by 5, I am not sure if this is what the hint is indicating.

Now I have 16 questions and I have to find the probability of answering correctly from 5 to 6.

Event A: answer 5 questions correctly
Event B: answer 6 questions correctly

I am looking for P(A OR B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A AND B)

P(A)=(16 choose 5)(0.25)^5*(0.75)^11=0.18
P(B)=(16 choose 6)(0.25)^6*(0.75)^10=0.11
P(A AND B)=0

P(A OR B)=0.18 + 0.11 = 0.29 or 29%

Is this the correct way? I am mostly confused because of the "from 25 to 30" and I am not sure if the division by 5 is correct.

Thank you in advance.
 
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  • #2
I think when it says use an approximation it means use the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution, not divide everything by 5.
 
  • #3
danago said:
I think when it says use an approximation it means use the normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution, not divide everything by 5.

Thank you, I believe you are absolutely right. I am fairly new to probability as you can see.
 

Related to Probability of 25-30 Correct Answers on 200-Q Quiz

1. What is the probability of getting exactly 25 correct answers on a 200-question quiz?

The probability of getting exactly 25 correct answers on a 200-question quiz depends on the difficulty level of the questions and the individual's knowledge and preparation for the quiz. Generally, if the questions are equally difficult and the individual has an average knowledge of the subject, the probability would be 1/8 or 12.5%.

2. Is it possible to calculate the exact probability of getting 25-30 correct answers on a 200-question quiz?

Yes, it is possible to calculate the exact probability using the binomial distribution formula. However, this would require knowing the exact difficulty level of each question and the individual's probability of getting each question correct. In most cases, this information is not available and therefore, estimating the probability is a more practical approach.

3. How does the probability change if the individual has a higher or lower knowledge level for the quiz?

The probability would increase if the individual has a higher knowledge level for the quiz. This is because they would have a higher chance of getting each question correct. On the other hand, if the individual has a lower knowledge level, the probability would decrease.

4. Can the probability of getting 25-30 correct answers be improved through studying or preparation?

Yes, the probability can be improved through studying and preparation. This is because studying and preparation can increase the individual's knowledge level and therefore, increase their chances of getting each question correct.

5. What other factors can affect the probability of getting 25-30 correct answers on a 200-question quiz?

Other factors that can affect the probability include the time limit for the quiz, the type of questions (multiple choice, true/false, etc.), and the individual's test-taking skills. Additionally, external factors such as distractions and stress levels can also impact the probability.

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