- #1
kent davidge
- 933
- 56
Around the mid of april, I had done some calculations to get some numbers for daily deaths in my country due to covid19. It was really simple, just a gaussian without taking into account any other factor.
I concluded that if the peak of daily deaths occurred on april 30, we would have about 500 deaths that day. The officially reported number of deaths turned out to be about 500! So if my model was correct, we already passed the peak, right?
But how to know if my model was correct? It seems that I have to wait until the "end" of the pandemic, to see if the peak was indeed reach on april 30. Correct? If that's the case, then my model was giving me the right numbers.
I concluded that if the peak of daily deaths occurred on april 30, we would have about 500 deaths that day. The officially reported number of deaths turned out to be about 500! So if my model was correct, we already passed the peak, right?
But how to know if my model was correct? It seems that I have to wait until the "end" of the pandemic, to see if the peak was indeed reach on april 30. Correct? If that's the case, then my model was giving me the right numbers.