How Reliable is the Truth Serum in Determining Guilt?

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In summary, when using a truth serum on a group of inmates where 5% are guilty and 95% are innocent, there is a 10% chance of a guilty inmate being falsely identified as innocent and a 1% chance of an innocent inmate being falsely identified as guilty. This means that if the serum's result is innocent, there is a 99.5% chance that the inmate is actually innocent and a 0.5% chance that they are guilty. Similarly, if the serum's result is guilty, there is a 90% chance that the inmate is actually guilty and a 10% chance that they are innocent.
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ballstix
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okay so there is a group of inmates: 5% are guilty and 95% are innocent

a truth serum is being used; when used on guilty inmates, it has a 90% chance of working (causing them to end up guilty) and a 10% chance of failure (causing them to end up innocent). when used on innocent inmates, it has a 99% chance of working (resulting in innocent) and a 1% chance of failure (resulting in guilty).

I need to find the probability of an inmate being guilty if the serum's result is innocent, as well as vice-versa, but that should be trivial once I figure out how to do the first one.

I drew a tree thing but it's not really helping me:
http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/7988/treefsy.jpg

is the first one (.005) / (.005 + .9405)?
 
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Yes.
 

Related to How Reliable is the Truth Serum in Determining Guilt?

What is a simple probability problem?

A simple probability problem is a question that asks you to calculate the likelihood of an event occurring. It usually involves a random experiment with a known set of outcomes, and the goal is to determine the chance of a specific outcome happening.

How do I calculate probability?

To calculate probability, you divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes. This will give you a decimal or fraction that represents the likelihood of the event occurring. You can also multiply this number by 100 to get a percentage.

What is the difference between theoretical and experimental probability?

Theoretical probability is based on mathematical calculations and assumes that all outcomes are equally likely. Experimental probability, on the other hand, is based on actual data from conducting an experiment or observing real-life events. This means that experimental probability may differ from theoretical probability due to chance or other factors.

What is the probability of an impossible event?

The probability of an impossible event is 0. This means that the event has no chance of occurring. For example, the probability of rolling a 7 on a standard six-sided die is impossible, as there are only six possible outcomes.

How do I use probability in real life?

Probability is used in many real-life situations, such as predicting weather patterns, analyzing risk in financial investments, and making decisions in games of chance. It can also be used to make informed decisions in everyday life, such as choosing the best route to take for a commute or determining the likelihood of a certain medical diagnosis.

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