Conditional expectation and variance

In summary, we have two independent exponential random variables with means 1 and 2 respectively, and we want to find the expected value and variance of X given the discrete random variable Z. We use the formula E[X|Z=z] = E[X|X<Y] for Z=1 and E[X|X>Y] for Z=0. By integrating and conditioning on Y, we find that E[X|Z=1] = 1/9 and E[X|Z=0] = 8/9. However, this contradicts the fact that E(X) should equal 1 for an exponential random variable with mean 1. There may be an error in the computation of Pr{Z=0}
  • #1
covariance64
3
0
Let X, Y be independent exponential random variables with means 1 and 2 respectively.

Let
Z = 1, if X < Y
Z = 0, otherwise

Find E(X|Z) and V(X|Z).

We should first find E(X|Z=z)
E(X|Z=z) = integral (from 0 to inf) of xf(x|z).
However, how do we find f(x|z) ?
 
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  • #2
Z is discrete. Since E[.|Z] and V[.|Z] are functions of Z, they too are discrete.

E[X|Z=1] = E[X|X<Y].
E[X|Z=0] = E[X|X>Y].

Similarly for V[X|Z].
 
  • #3
I have found that

E[X|Z=1] = E[X|X<Y] = 1/9
E[X|Z=0] = E[X|X>Y] = 8/9
by integrating, and conditioning on the random variable Y.

So E(X) = E(E(X|Z)) = (1/9)(1/3) + (8/9)(2/3) = 17/27,

which contradicts the fact that E(X) = 1, for X exponential with mean 1.

I am wondering where is the error.
 
  • #4
How are you computing Pr{Z=0} and Pr{Z=1}?
 

Related to Conditional expectation and variance

What is conditional expectation?

Conditional expectation is a statistical concept that represents the average value of a random variable, given the knowledge of another random variable. It is denoted by E(X|Y) and is calculated by taking the sum of all possible values of X multiplied by their respective probabilities, given a fixed value of Y.

How is conditional expectation calculated?

Conditional expectation is calculated by taking the weighted average of all possible values of X, given a fixed value of Y. This can be done by multiplying each value of X by its corresponding probability, given a fixed value of Y, and adding them together. Alternatively, it can be calculated using the formula E(X|Y) = ∑ x * P(X=x|Y=y), where x represents the possible values of X and y represents the fixed value of Y.

What is the significance of conditional expectation in statistics?

Conditional expectation is important in statistics because it allows us to make predictions about the behavior of a random variable, given the knowledge of another random variable. It also helps in understanding the relationship between two random variables and their joint distribution. Additionally, conditional expectation is used in various statistical techniques, such as regression analysis and probability models.

What is conditional variance?

Conditional variance is a measure of the dispersion of a random variable, given a fixed value of another random variable. It is denoted by Var(X|Y) and is calculated by taking the sum of the squared differences between each possible value of X and the conditional expectation of X, multiplied by their respective probabilities, given a fixed value of Y.

How is conditional variance useful in statistics?

Conditional variance is useful in statistics as it helps in understanding the variability of a random variable, given the knowledge of another random variable. It is also used in various statistical techniques, such as ANOVA and regression analysis, to assess the relationship between two variables and to make predictions. Additionally, it can help in identifying patterns and trends in the data and can provide insights for further analysis.

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