Are Climate Change-Related Disasters Becoming Seasonal?

[marcus]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,1650407,00.html

---exerpt from Guardian---

Pacific Atlantis: first climate change refugees

John Vidal, environment editor
Friday November 25, 2005
The Guardian

For more than 30 years the 980 people living on the six minute horseshoe-shaped Carteret atolls have battled the Pacific to stop salt water destroying their coconut palms and waves crashing over their houses. They failed.
Yesterday a decision was made that will make their group of low-lying islands literally go down in history. In the week before 150 countries meet in Montreal to discuss how to combat global warming and rising sea levels, the Carterets' people became the first to be officially evacuated because of climate change.

Starting as soon as money is available to the Papuan New Guinean regional government, 10 families at a time will be moved by the authorities to Bougainville, a larger island 62 miles away. Within two years the six Carterets, roughly the size of 80 football pitches and just 1.5 metres high, will be uninhabited and undefended. By 2015 they are likely to be completely submerged.
---endquote---

 

[matthyaouw]

First refugees of climate change is a tad sensationalist isn't it?

Anyway, repeated emergence and submergence is fairly characteristic of atolls as far as I'm aware. I mean these things formed under water as it is.

 

[Mk]

This kind of thing definitely happens all the time, I don't know how frequent it is when people are living on the island.

 

[pattylou]

Both responses tend to imply that it is normal for atolls to go above and below sea level --- with which I'd agree ---- but I think I'd probably disagree on the frequency with which atolls become submerged.

I am wondering is Matthew or Mk can provide a reference to put a hard number on what "all the time" and "fairly characteristic" means?

Do we expect a habitable atoll to, on average, disappear into the watery depths once every 100 years? Once every 10,000?

To the original poster: Interesting. I am sorry to see that these people need to evacuate. I've no idea if it's down to anthropogenic forced warming or not, of course. To figure that out, we'd need numbers on how often atolls become submerged, for a start. My thought is that a habitable atoll is not likely to become uninhabitaby submerged within the course of a lifetime, but perhaps one of the other responders can back up their positions with statistics.

 

[matthyaouw]

No, I don't know. I wasn't trying to imply it was in no way influenced by climate change- merely pointing out there is another side to it. The article itself doesn't give any evidence to argue the claim in their title either.

 

[Mk]

Here's one instance of a case where a populated island disappeared:

http://books.google.com/books?ie=UTF-8&hl=en&id=gf8tCa17nEcC&pg=PR5&lpg=PR5&dq=Sharp's+Island,+Maryland,+Ca.+1950&sig=RQMs1aWE644xMueNBWLoiz2Q4gY (copy and paste this link, it won't parse because of the commas)Sharp's island. Maryland. ca. 1950. This photo shows what remainded of an island that probably was approximately 700 acres in size at the time of original settlement in the late 17th century, and that still covered almost 600 sscres in 1850. Until the first decades of the 20th century, Sharp's Island supported several large farms (at least one of 300 acres) and a hotel until 1910. Today, the island has disappeared, with only the historic Sharp's Island marking its former position

Also:

http://books.google.com/books?ie=UT...d+disappeared&sig=lPjlcmVUKEyHL83Yiq-12dHWYxA
Rising sea levels have other important effects besides erosion. Low-lying coastal plains are vulnerable to inundation and suffere serious consequences of salt intrusion into aquifers. Some islands in the Chesapeake Bay that once supported farming and logging activities have become so contaminated with salt that agricultural activities are now impossible. Other islands in the Bay have disappeared (Kearney and Stevenson, 1991). The roughly 10,000 km of coastline inteh Bay is eroading rapidly, creating seroius economic, social, and polictical problems for the reason. Rising sea levels also threaten coastal ecosystems when marshes drown because they cannot build upwart (vertically accrete) fast enough. Marshes develop ponds as they drown, and ultimately can disappear entirely, as is happening now to the important wildlife refuge at Blackwater Mayland.

I actually found a bunch of papers, books and such that talk about rising sea level's effects on islands but none come close to mentioning frequency.

As far as I have researched, a rising sea level taking over a populated island is unheard of (literally, not meaning impossible). Ooops shouldn't end a sentence with a preposition.

I was kinda right kinda wrong, as I see it. Islands can disappear into the ocean because of the ocean, but not because of rising sea level.

 

[Tide]

It's funny that the Telegraph reported a mere five years ago that sea levels at several islands and atolls (Nauru, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu) were falling. They might be good places for New Guineans to migrate to! :)

But a skeptic (cynic?) might point out that the fallback position of global warming proponents in the face of "unusual cold" is that, in effect, global warming causes global cooling - which is why we now use the politically correct term "climate change" instead. One might therefore reasonably expect global warming to cause globally falling sea levels! ;)

Seriously, though, the alleged changes are of the order of centimeters which is (a) small in comparison with mean wave heights and (b) very small compared with level changes produced by even a small shift of wind direction or speed. It's also interesting that the alleged changes were on the same upward "trend" as they are today at least as far back as the beginning of the 19th century (http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/Resources/Learning/sealevel.html) .

 

[russ_watters]

I don't think it is reasonable to blame this on global warming. According to http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/19.htm" site, the oceans have risen 10-25cm in the past 100 years (a little less than a foot). This isn't like the weather, where one area can get a little warmer while another gets a lot warmer - sea level is sea level and a 1 foot rise is a 1 foot rise everywhere.

 

[Andre]

That seems all to obvious and highly logical, Yet See level variables include prevailing air pressure and winds, local variation in average sea water temperature, local gravity changes. (ice sheets also pull a little, if they disappear the local sea level also drops slightly mm's) The more obvious variables are land subsidence and uplift. Venice has sunken 10 cm the last century (total 20) only due to the mass of the city pushing the soil down.

Check some random data here:

http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/denhelder.html

The message: don't get scaremongered.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

From Russ' link

It is likely that much of the rise in sea level has been related to the concurrent rise in global temperature over the last 100 years. On this time scale, the warming and the consequent thermal expansion of the oceans may account for about 2-7 cm of the observed sea level rise, while the observed retreat of glaciers and ice caps may account for about 2-5 cm. Other factors are more difficult to quantify. The rate of observed sea level rise suggests that there has been a net positive contribution from the huge ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, but observations of the ice sheets do not yet allow meaningful quantitative estimates of their separate contributions. The ice sheets remain a major source of uncertainty in accounting for past changes in sea level because of insufficient data about these ice sheets over the last 100 years.

The message: Flat earthers still exist as well.

 

[russ_watters]

From Russ' link
The message: Flat earthers still exist as well.

Did you misread my post? (and most of the rest of them...?) I didn't say that the rise in sea level wasn't due to global warming, I said a 1 foot rise isn't significant enough to blame abandoning an island on it.

 

[Mk]

I still don't get why there were "refugees." If the sea level didn't go up 5 meters, why are they called refugees? Damn scaremongers. Probably the local corrupted government was kicking them out or something.

 

[matthyaouw]

I still don't get why there were "refugees." If the sea level didn't go up 5 meters, why are they called refugees? Damn scaremongers. Probably the local corrupted government was kicking them out or something.

I think you are missing the point... Erosion, storms and salinisation are making these islands uninhabitable, not direct innundation.
I'm not sure what you base your corrupt government statement on.

 

[Skyhunter]

And now it is affecting the roof of the world.

Global warming shrinking size of 'world's rooftop' in Tibet
01/04/2006

By KAZUTO TSUKAMOTO The Asahi Shimbun


MEILI SNOW MOUNTAIN, China--The "rooftop of the world" is melting.

Thanks to global warming, glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau are rapidly liquefying, possibly causing many of the region's water woes--especially flooding--in the past decades. The huge meltdown could cause serious ecological trouble in the future, including water shortages, Chinese experts say.

The Tibetan Plateau is the source of many major rivers in Asia.

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200601040097.html

 

[Mk]

"possibly causing many of the region's water woes—especially flooding—in the past decades. [...] ecological trouble in the future, including water shortages."
How is flooding of China causing water shortages? Isn't flooding caused by... too much water? And how is there going to be a shortage of water if there is more meltwater to drink?

How quickly is it melting? Floods are floods because they happen fast, like a wave, whether from the sky, the ground, or the ocean. If I imagine an ice cube melting on a table I don't think "flood."

 

[quantumcarl]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,1650407,00.html
---exerpt from Guardian---
Pacific Atlantis: first climate change refugees
John Vidal, environment editor
Friday November 25, 2005
The Guardian
For more than 30 years the 980 people living on the six minute horseshoe-shaped Carteret atolls have battled the Pacific to stop salt water destroying their coconut palms and waves crashing over their houses. They failed.
Yesterday a decision was made that will make their group of low-lying islands literally go down in history. In the week before 150 countries meet in Montreal to discuss how to combat global warming and rising sea levels, the Carterets' people became the first to be officially evacuated because of climate change.
Starting as soon as money is available to the Papuan New Guinean regional government, 10 families at a time will be moved by the authorities to Bougainville, a larger island 62 miles away. Within two years the six Carterets, roughly the size of 80 football pitches and just 1.5 metres high, will be uninhabited and undefended. By 2015 they are likely to be completely submerged.
---endquote---

I don't think we can rule out the one-time occupants of New Orleans and surrounding. Not refugees, in their own country, but survivors. And smart to find higher ground for the time being.

 

[Skyhunter]

fast[/i], like a wave, whether from the sky, the ground, or the ocean. If I imagine an ice cube melting on a table I don't think "flood."

I would suggest you read the article for answers to your questions.

 

[Mk]

Ok, sorry. I will.

I'm looking for some scholarly papers about this right now, do you have any?

 

[Mk]

http://www.imde.ac.cn/journal/Vol_02/2-4.pdf

Mountain flash floods in Tibet are usually triggered by rainstorm, ice and snow melt water, glacial lake outburst and failure of collapse, landslide and debris-flow blocked dams. The south slope of the Himalayas and southeastern Tibet are the rainfall centers with annual precipitation of 600~800 mm, but the maximum precipitation reaches 4,495 mm in Baxika on the boundary with India (Dai Jiaxi 1990). A large area of rainfall often results in flash floods and debris flows. During rainy season, the ablation of glaciers and accumulated snows are also quite extensive, and flash floods caused by melt water of ice and snow frequently breaks out in various parts of Tibet. The annual ablation depth in the maritime glaciers of southeastern Tibet reaches 3,000 ~6,000 mm; the melt water occupies 10~40% of the total runoff of rivers (Shi Yafeng 1988). But the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is more catastrophic than normal flash flood. There are 14 glacial outburst lakes in Tibet, which have broken out 16 times since 1930s, among which 9 outburst floods and debris flows entered Nepal, India and Bhutan, and caused more serious losses of life and property than Tibet (Lu Ruren 1999, Pramod Pradhan 2001). On July 11, 1981, 7,000,000 m3 glacial ice fell suddenly into a 1,500 m long, 500 m wide and 35 m deep moraine-dammed lake and caused outburst. The peak discharge of glacial flood and debris flow reached 15,920 m3 s-1, which traveled for 90 km along the Poiqu River into Nepal, destroyed the Friendship Bridge, partly damaged the Sunkosi Hydro-power Station and killed more than 200 people in Nepal (Liu Chaohai 1988).

[/There are 4 cities, Lhasa, Xigaze, Linzhi and Zedang, and 20 towns, including Bomi, Basu, Zuogong and Zhangmu etc. under the menace of mountain hazards, accounting for 30% of all cities and towns in Tibet. During a disastrous landslide dam outburst flood on July 26, 1954 in Xigaze in the Nianchu River basin, 407 people were killed; hundreds of houses and 5400 ha farmland were submerged (Chen Guojie 2002).

Or these graphs from http://dust.ess.uci.edu/ppr/ppr_FlZ05_grl.pdf:

http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/8026/meansnowdepthobservedandsimula.png
You see here mean snow depth over a year, the red and blue lines are modeled, and the black are observed. Mean snow depth decreased about 0.1 m in the summer, and regained the 0.1 m in winter. That blue line model didn't work very well did it?

http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/107/annualcycleofobservedandsimula.png
Same color code, but this is for 2-m air temperature. You can see a drastic 20˚C change from winter to summer, then back down to -10˚C. Cool huh?

http://dust.ess.uci.edu/ppr/ppr_FlZ05_grl.pdf
Also says how solar insolation's effects exponentially decay though each centimeter of snowpack. See under.

Solar absorption decays exponentially with depth in
snowpacks. However, most climate models constrain all
snowpack absorption to occur uniformly in the top-most
snow layer. We show that 20–45% of solar absorption by
deep snowpacks occurs more than 2 cm beneath the surface.
Accounting for vertically-resolved solar heating alters
steady-state snow mass without changing bulk snow
albedo, and ice-albedo feedback amplifies this effect.
Vertically-resolved snowpack heating reduces winter snow
mass on the Tibetan Plateau by 80% in one GCM, and
significantly increases 2 m air temperature. These changes
significantly reduce model-measurement discrepancies. Our
results demonstrate that snowpack radiative heating plays a
significant role in regulating surface climate and hydrology.

Ooooh look stir fry for lunch. Its good. yay! I like rice. And shrimp and garlic and bamboo and broccoli and etc...

 

[Skyhunter]

Ooooh look stir fry for lunch. Its good. yay! I like rice. And shrimp and garlic and bamboo and broccoli and etc...

Sounds yummy. (No shrimp for me please, but the rest sounds good.)

What I found interesting about the melting glacier is the reduction in ground water and the local lakes that are drying up. I would expect flooding with melting glaciers, but not droughts. Like so many wonders in the world, the outcomes are not always what you would expect.

Oh never mind my friend is making a stir fry. Brussel sprouts, shi-take mushrooms, bell pepper, onion, garlic, ginger, mixed greens (from the back yard), and cauliflower, over organic soba noodles. Exquisite!

 

[Mk]

Brussel sprouts? eeewwe! What's a soba noodle? I don't like leafy vegetables in my stirfry. Spinach is good though.

Droughts droughts droughts...

Second graph: http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/107/annualcycleofobservedandsimula.png

Mmm I bet portobello would be good—with shi-take, instead of white...

We haven't ruled out this "melting, flooding, and drought-ing," as being seasonal. It is likely. This is important. I'm going to look a bit on that now.